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Price has continued to move higher as was expected for the session by both Elliott wave counts.

Summary: A short term target is now at 1,307. The final target is still at 1,320.

The trend still looks to be upwards. Pullbacks are an opportunity to join the trend.

Always use a stop. Invest only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly charts and alternate weekly charts are here, video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly I 2017
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The Magee bear market trend line is added to the weekly charts. This cyan line is drawn from the all time high for Gold on the 6th of September, 2011, to the first major swing high within the following bear market on the 5th of October, 2012. This line should provide strong resistance.

To use this trend line in the way Magee describes, we should assume that price will find resistance at the line if it gets back up there. If the line is breached (by at least one or two full daily candlesticks above it), it will be signalling a major trend change from bear to bull. At that point the alternate Elliott wave count should be preferred.

At this stage, a triangle still looks possible and has the best fit for cycle wave b. It has strong support now from declining ATR and MACD hovering about zero.

Within a triangle, one sub-wave should be a more complicated multiple, which may be primary wave C. This is the most common sub-wave of the triangle to subdivide into a multiple.

Intermediate wave (Y) now looks like a developing zigzag at the weekly chart level, and minor wave B within it shows up with one red weekly candlestick. Primary wave C may end at the Magee trend line.

Primary wave D of a contracting triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave B below 1,123.08. Contracting triangles are the most common variety.

Primary wave D of a barrier triangle should end about the same level as primary wave B at 1,123.08, so that the B-D trend line remains essentially flat. This involves some subjectivity; price may move slightly below 1,123.08 and the triangle wave count may remain valid. This is the only Elliott wave rule which is not black and white.

Finally, primary wave E of a contracting or barrier triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave C above 1,295.65. Primary wave E would most likely fall short of the A-C trend line. But if it does not end there, then it can slightly overshoot that trend line.

Primary wave A lasted 31 weeks, primary wave B lasted 23 weeks, and primary wave C may now have just completed its 34th week. A double zigzag may be expected to be longer lasting than single zigzags within a triangle, and so this continuation of primary wave C is entirely acceptable and leaves the wave count with the right look at this time frame.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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A target for primary wave C to end is calculated using the most common Fibonacci ratio between minor waves A and C. If the target is wrong, it may be too high; there is very strong resistance about 1,305 to 1,310. At this stage, the target at 1,320 may see upwards movement end about the Magee trend line.

Along the way up, corrections should find final support at the lower edge of the blue Elliott channel.

Minor wave C may only unfold as a five wave structure, either an impulse or an ending diagonal. An impulse is much more common and will be expected until shown otherwise by price.

Within an impulse for minor wave C, the corrections of minute waves ii and iv would most likely show up on the daily chart, like they do within minor wave A. Minute waves ii and iv within minor wave A both lasted two sessions, so they may also last about two to three sessions within minor wave C.

Minute wave ii now shows up with two red daily candlesticks. It has a typical look.

Within minute wave iii, no second wave correction may move beyond its start below 1,267.72.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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Another five wave impulse upwards looks to be completing. Because it has not yet moved above the end of minute wave i, this may not be minute wave iii in its entirety. This five wave impulse upwards looks most likely to be only minuette wave (i).

An Elliott channel is drawn in orange about the upwards wave of minuette wave (i). When this channel is breached by downwards movement, it would indicate that minuette wave (i) should be over and minuette wave (ii) should then be underway. At that stage, draw a Fibonacci retracement along the length of minuette wave (i). Minuette wave (ii) may only correct to the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio. There may then be enough of a strong upwards pull from the middle of a third wave to force minuette wave (ii) to be more shallow than usual.

Minuette wave (ii) may not show up on the daily chart because it may be over relatively quickly. It may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i) below 1,267.72. Minuette wave (ii) may offer another entry opportunity to join the upwards trend at a good price.

Minute wave iii may only subdivide as an impulse and it must move above the end of minute wave i at 1,291.36. When minute wave iii is complete, then the next correction for minute wave iv may last about two days and must remain above minute wave i price territory at 1,291.36.

The target for minute wave iii remains the same. A Fibonacci ratio of equality with minute wave i is used because it fits with the higher target for minor wave C to reach equality in length with minor wave A.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly I 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This wave count has been published only in historical analysis. At this stage, it will be published on a daily basis.

There are more than 23 possible corrective structures that B waves may take, and although cycle wave b fits best at this stage as a triangle (main wave count), it may still be another structure. This wave count looks at the possibility that it may be a double zigzag.

If cycle wave b is a double zigzag, then current upwards movement may be part of the second zigzag in the double, labelled primary wave Y.

The target remains the same as previously published for this wave count.

Along the way up, some resistance should be expected at the cyan Magee trend line. Because this wave count requires price to break above the Magee trend line, it must be judged to have a lower probability for this reason. This trend line is tested multiple times and goes back to 2011. It is reasonable to expect price to find resistance there, until proven otherwise.

Within intermediate wave (C), no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 1,205.41.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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Intermediate wave (C) may be unfolding as an impulse.

Within the impulse, minor waves 1 and 2 would now be complete. Minor wave 3 must unfold as an impulse, and within it minute waves i and now ii would also be complete.

A-B-C of a zigzag subdivides 5-3-5, exactly the same as 1-2-3 of an unfolding impulse. The hourly chart now for both Elliott wave counts would be exactly the same in terms of subdivisions and short term expectations. The blue channel which should provide support for any deep pullbacks would also be exactly the same.



Gold Weekly 2017
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Last upwards week has support from volume. Look out for strong resistance now close by. A pullback about 1,305 to 1,310 is a reasonable expectation.

On Balance Volume gives a weak bullish signal. This supports both Elliott wave counts.

ADX and ATR both support the main weekly Elliott wave count. This is what a triangle should look like.


Gold Daily 2016
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There is support today from volume. This is a good bullish sign.

On Balance Volume will be watched carefully tomorrow. If it breaks above resistance, it would offer a reasonable bullish signal. The signal would be reasonable because the line has been tested four times and is close to horizontal. On Balance Volume is right on the line today, not yet above.

Although Stochastics reached overbought and there exhibited divergence with price, it has now returned into neutral territory. It may now return to overbought, or it may equally as likely continue lower to oversold. But it does not have to swing all the way down to oversold here.



GDX Daily 2016
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This market has been trendless for a long time now as a large triangle completes. Descending triangles most commonly break out downwards, but this is contradicted by volume during this triangle being strongest for upwards days.

With Stochastics now again overbought and exhibiting divergence with price, and price close to resistance, it looks like GDX may have a little pullback tomorrow.

Published @ 06:00 p.m. EST.