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Last Elliott wave analysis expected upwards movement from Gold to begin the new week, which is exactly what has happened.

Summary: For the very short term, look out for a small pullback to about 1,277 – 1,275. Thereafter, look for the new upwards trend to continue.

The fist target is at 1,297, then 1,319 or possibly as high as 1,412.

This pullback may offer an entry opportunity to go long. Always trade with stops and invest only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly charts for the main wave count are here, another monthly alternate is here, and video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

The wave counts will be labelled first and second. Classic technical analysis will be used to determine which wave count looks to be more likely. In terms of Elliott wave structure the second wave count has a better fit and fewer problems.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly I 2017
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There are more than 23 possible corrective structures that B waves may take, and although cycle wave b still fits well at this stage as a triangle, it may still be another structure. This wave count looks at the possibility that it may be a double zigzag.

If cycle wave b is a double zigzag, then current upwards movement may be part of the second zigzag in the double, labelled primary wave Y.

The target remains the same.

Within intermediate wave (C), no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 1,205.41. However, prior to invalidation, this wave count may be discarded if price breaks below the lower edge of the black Elliott channel. If this wave count is correct, then intermediate wave (C) should not break below the Elliott channel which contains the zigzag of primary wave Y upwards.

There are two problems with this wave count which reduce its probability in terms of Elliott wave:

1. Cycle wave b is a double zigzag, but primary wave X within the double is deep and time consuming. While this is possible, it is much more common for X waves within double zigzags to be brief and shallow.

2. Intermediate wave (B) within the zigzag of primary wave Y is a double flat correction. These are extremely rare, even rarer than running flats. The rarity of this structure must further reduce the probability of this wave count.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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The analysis will focus on the structure of intermediate wave (C). To see details of all the bull movement for this year see daily charts here.

Intermediate wave (C) must be a five wave structure, either an impulse or an ending diagonal. It is unfolding as the more common impulse.

It is possible that minor waves 1 and now 2 may both be over. Minor wave 2 may have ended very close to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio. If it continues lower, then minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 below 1,205.41.

Minor wave 1 lasted 44 days and minor wave 2 may have lasted 20 days, just one short of a Fibonacci 21.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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Hourly charts today focus on new upwards movement.

A first five up looks to be complete. This should be followed by a three down. When considering weakness today in upwards movement, it looks like a small downwards reaction may develop here. This may be a small second wave correction.

The upper edge of the pink Elliott channel may now provide support. This may force minuette wave (ii) to be more shallow than normal for a second wave. Minuette wave (ii) may be unfolding as a very common expanded flat correction.

The target is calculated at two wave degrees and should have a reasonable probability.

Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i) below 1,260.72.

When the small correction of minuette wave (ii) is complete, then upwards movement should exhibit an increase in momentum and have support from volume.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly I 2017
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It is still possible that cycle wave b is unfolding as a regular contracting or barrier triangle.

Within a triangle, one sub-wave should be a more complicated multiple, which may be primary wave C. This is the most common sub-wave of the triangle to subdivide into a multiple.

Intermediate wave (Y) now looks like a complete zigzag at the weekly chart level.

Primary wave D of a contracting triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave B below 1,123.08. Contracting triangles are the most common variety.

Primary wave D of a barrier triangle should end about the same level as primary wave B at 1,123.08, so that the B-D trend line remains essentially flat. This involves some subjectivity; price may move slightly below 1,123.08 and the triangle wave count may remain valid. This is the only Elliott wave rule which is not black and white.

Finally, primary wave E of a contracting or barrier triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave C above 1,295.65. Primary wave E would most likely fall short of the A-C trend line. But if it does not end there, then it can slightly overshoot that trend line.

Primary wave A lasted 31 weeks, primary wave B lasted 23 weeks, and primary wave C lasted 38 weeks.

The A-C trend line now has too weak a slope. At this stage, this is now a problem for this wave count, the upper A-C trend line no longer has such a typical look.

Within primary wave D, no part of the zigzag may move beyond its start above 1,357.09.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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This second wave count expects the new wave down may be deeper and longer lasting than the first wave count allows for.

A common length for triangle sub-waves is from 0.8 to 0.85 the length of the prior wave. Primary wave D would reach this range from 1,170 to 1,158.

If primary wave C is correctly labelled as a double zigzag, then primary wave D must be a single zigzag.

Within the single zigzag of primary wave D, intermediate wave (A) is labelled as a complete impulse.

Intermediate wave (A) lasted 20 days, just one short of a Fibonacci 21. Intermediate wave (B) may be about the same duration, so that this wave count has good proportions, or it may be longer because B waves tend to be more complicated and time consuming.

Intermediate wave (B) may be a sharp upwards zigzag, or it may be a choppy overlapping consolidation as a flat, triangle or combination.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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Minor wave A may subdivide as a five wave structure if intermediate wave (B) unfolds as an impulse. Minor wave A may also subdivide as a zigzag or flat correction if intermediate wave (B) unfolds as a flat, combination or triangle.

A movement at intermediate degree should begin with a five up at the hourly chart level. At this time, this may be incomplete; only wave 1 of the first five up may be complete.

The labelling within intermediate wave (B), including the degree of labelling, may change as it unfolds. It is impossible to tell until at or near to completion of intermediate wave (B) what structure it has taken.

B waves should exhibit weakness. If upwards movement over this next week exhibits any of the following, then a B wave may be the reason: lack of support from volume, declining ATR, divergence with price and Stochastics, or divergence with price and RSI.

The first target for intermediate wave (B) would be the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (A) about 1,297. Thereafter, the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio would be the next target about 1,319. Both targets are equally as likely. B waves exhibit huge variety in structure and price behaviour; there is no typical Fibonacci ratio for them to retrace.



Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

The candlestick for last week is not a Hammer reversal pattern. The lower shadow must be at minimum twice the length of the real body and this one falls short. The long lower wick is still bullish though.

The lower wick with a decline in volume for downwards movement last week does look like at least an interim low is in place.


Gold Daily 2016
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A downwards day tomorrow is suggested by a sharp decline in volume today, a slightly long upper candlestick wick, and resistance for On Balance Volume. Look for support about 1,260.



GDX Daily 2016
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A small spinning top candlestick and a sharp decline in volume today suggest a downwards day tomorrow also for GDX.

The purple trend line on On Balance Volume may offer support now and force any pullback here to be relatively shallow.

Published @ 08:35 p.m. EST.