A little sideways and lower movement to end about 1,344 was expected to begin the new trading week. Thereafter, the upwards swing was expected to continue. This is exactly what happened. A little downwards movement opened the first session of the week to reach a low at 1,343.52, only 0.47 below the target. Thereafter, upwards movement has resumed to complete a green daily candlestick. The target remains the same.

Summary: The upwards swing should continue to the target, which remains at 1,367. When that is done, look out for a reversal and a new downwards swing back to support.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

Last in-depth historic analysis with monthly and several weekly charts is here, video is here.

There are multiple wave counts at this time at the weekly and monthly chart levels. In order to make this analysis manageable and accessible only two will be published on a daily basis, one bullish and one bearish. This does not mean the other possibilities may not be correct, only that publication of them all each day is too much to digest. At this stage, they do not diverge from the two possibilities below.

BULLISH ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

FIRST WEEKLY CHART

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Cycle wave b may be a single zigzag. Zigzags subdivide 5-3-5. Primary wave C must subdivide as a five wave structure and may be either an impulse or an ending diagonal. Overlapping at this stage indicates an ending diagonal.

Within an ending diagonal, all sub-waves must subdivide as zigzags. Intermediate wave (4) must overlap into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This diagonal is expanding: intermediate wave (3) is longer than intermediate wave (1) and intermediate wave (4) is longer than intermediate wave (2). Intermediate wave (5) must be longer than intermediate wave (3), so it must end above 1,398.41 where it would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (3).

Within the final zigzag of intermediate wave (5), minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A below 1,236.54.

Within the diagonal of primary wave C, each sub-wave is extending in price and so may also do so in time. Within each zigzag, minor wave B may exhibit alternation in structure and may show an increased duration.

Within intermediate wave (1), minor wave B was a triangle lasting 11 days. Within intermediate wave (2), minor wave B was a zigzag lasting 2 days. Within intermediate wave (3), minor wave B was a regular flat lasting 60 days. Within intermediate wave (4), minor wave B was a regular contracting triangle lasting 40 days. Within intermediate wave (5), minor wave B may be expected to be an expanded flat, combination or running triangle to exhibit some alternation in structure. It may last as long as 40 to 60 days. So far it has lasted 42 days (refer to daily chart) and the structure is incomplete.

At this stage, it looks like minor wave B may most likely be a flat correction, or it may also still be a triangle. Both ideas are presented below.

This first weekly chart sees the upwards wave labelled primary wave A as a five wave structure. It must be acknowledged that this upwards wave looks better as a three than it does as a five. The fifth weekly chart below will consider the possibility that it was a three.

FIRST DAILY CHART – FLAT

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Minor wave B may be an incomplete flat correction, and within the flat minute wave a must subdivide as a three, which may have been a double zigzag.

Minute wave b must also subdivide as a three and must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of minute wave a. The target would see minute wave b end within the most common range for B waves within flats, and at an area of strong resistance.

Minuette wave (c) must subdivide as a five wave structure. It may only be either an impulse or an ending diagonal. An impulse is much more likely.

Subminuette wave ii shows up on the daily chart, but subminuette wave iv does not if my labelling of minuette wave (c) is correct. It is possible that subminuette wave iv was over a little more quickly than expected. This would be typical behaviour of commodities. Strong fifth waves can force fourth waves that come just before (or just after) to be more brief and shallow, giving an impulse a three wave look at higher time frames.

HOURLY CHART

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Minuette wave (c) may be nearing completion as an impulse, and within it subminuette wave iii is slightly shorter than subminuette wave i, if this labelling is correct. This limits subminuette wave v to no longer than equality in length with subminuette wave iii, so that subminuette wave iii is not the shortest actionary wave within the impulse of minuette wave (c), and the core Elliott wave rule is met.

The target remains the same. This would see subminuette waves iii and v close to equality.

Within subminuette wave v, the correction for micro wave 4 may not move into micro wave 1 price territory below 1,348.97.

SECOND DAILY CHART – TRIANGLE

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This alternate daily chart is identical to the first daily chart up to the high labelled minor wave A. Thereafter, it looks at a different structure for minor wave B.

Minor wave B may be an incomplete triangle, and within it minute wave a may have been a double zigzag. All remaining triangle sub-waves must be simple A-B-C structures, and three of the four remaining sub-waves must be simple zigzags. One remaining sub-wave may be a flat correction.

Minute wave b may be unfolding upwards as a single zigzag, and within it minuette wave (b) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a) below 1,303.08.

This alternate wave count expects weeks of choppy overlapping movement in an ever decreasing range.

All daily charts expect an impulse is unfolding higher for the short term. The subdivisions and labelling at the hourly chart level would all be mostly the same.

BEARISH ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

FIFTH WEEKLY CHART

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There were five weekly charts published in the last historic analysis. This fifth weekly chart is the most immediately bearish wave count, so this is published as a bearish possibility.

This fifth weekly chart sees cycle wave b as a flat correction, and within it intermediate wave (B) may be a complete triple zigzag. This would indicate a regular flat as intermediate wave (B) is less than 1.05 the length of intermediate wave (A).

If cycle wave b is a flat correction, then within it primary wave B must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of primary wave A at 1,079.13 or below. The most common length of B waves within flats is from 1 to 1.38 times the length of the A wave. The target calculated would see primary wave B end within this range.

I have only seen two triple zigzags before during my 10 years of daily Elliott wave analysis. If this wave count turns out to be correct, this would be the third. The rarity of this structure is identified on the chart.

FIFTH DAILY CHART

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If a new wave down at intermediate degree is beginning, then the first wave of minor wave 1 must subdivide as a five, which may only be an impulse or a leading diagonal.

Minor wave 1 may have been a complete impulse over on the 8th of February. But this downwards wave does not look very good as a five. It can be made to fit at lower time frames, but this movement fits better as a zigzag. The probability of this wave count is reduced.

Minor wave 2 may be an incomplete expanded flat. Minute wave c would be likely to end at least slightly above the end of minute wave a at 1,361.46 to avoid a truncation and a very rare running flat. Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 1,365.68.

Minute wave c must subdivide as a five wave structure. So far minuette waves (i) and (ii) may be complete. Minuette wave (iii) may be over very soon. This wave count then expects a sideways correction for minuette wave (iv), which may not move back down into minuette wave (i) price territory below 1,339.89. This price point now differentiates this fifth wave count from the others.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Again, price bounces up off support. Last week’s strong weekly candlestick with an almost shaven head is very bullish. Support from volume and a bullish signal from On Balance Volume all support the Elliott wave analysis which expects upwards movement is incomplete.

Look for final resistance about 1,375.

DAILY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Looking at the bigger picture, Gold has been within a large consolidation since about January 2017 (this chart does not show all of this large consolidation), and during this consolidation it is two upwards days that have strongest volume and an upwards week that has strongest volume. Volume suggests an upwards breakout may be more likely than downwards.

Currently, Gold is within a smaller consolidation that began in early January 2018. This consolidation is delineated by support about 1,310 to 1,305 and resistance (final) about 1,375. It is an upwards day during this smaller consolidation that has strongest volume, suggesting an upwards breakout may be more likely here than downwards.

Price is nearing resistance and volume is showing some weakness in upwards movement today. Stochastics is entering overbought. Look for the upwards swing to end soon and a new downwards swing to develop.

Resistance is next at 1,360. Thereafter, further resistance is at 1,365 and then 1,375.

GDX WEEKLY CHART

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Support about 20.80 has been tested about eight times and so far has held. The more often a support area is tested and holds, the more technical significance it has.

In the first instance, expect this area to continue to provide support. Only a strong downwards day, closing below support and preferably with some increase in volume, would constitute a downwards breakout from the consolidation that GDX has been in for a year now.

Resistance is about 25.50. Only a strong upwards day, closing above resistance and with support from volume, would constitute an upwards breakout.

Bullish volume last week and a bullish signal from On Balance Volume offer support to the view that an upwards swing should continue here to resistance.

GDX DAILY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

A bullish signal from On Balance Volume at the daily chart level and a bullish volume profile suggest more upwards movement this week for GDX.

Assume the opening gap for Friday is a measuring gap until proven otherwise. Measuring gaps may be used in trading to place stops. They are not usually closed for some time, so in an upwards trend should provide support. Stops may be placed just below the gap. This measuring gap gives a target at 22.63.

Weak volume suggests upwards movement is tiring. There is room above though for more upwards movement: resistance is not yet met, and Stochastics is not yet overbought.

Published @ 08:29 p.m. EST.