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Last analysis presented a new alternate Elliott wave count for the short term that expected downwards movement that should have strength. A bearish signal yesterday from On Balance Volume supported this view, and members were warned in yesterday’s summary that downwards movement was possible, which happened today.

Summary: While price remains within the best fit channel, which is drawn on all hourly charts, then allow for the possibility that the new alternate hourly wave count could be correct. It is possible that minor wave 4 was over very quickly at the last high on the 9th of July and minor wave 5 downwards is underway. A bearish signal today from On Balance Volume means this possibility must now be considered.

If price breaks above the upper edge of the channel and then makes a new high above 1,245.19, then minor wave 4 would still be continuing sideways for a few days.

The mid term target is 1,216 – 1,211. Downwards movement may be limited to no lower than 1,123.08.

Always trade with stops to protect your account. Risk only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

At the end of this week, it may be a good idea to note that neither Gold nor Silver have made new swing lows below the prior major swing lows of December 2017. This week both markets moved lower and came even closer to those lows, but both have failed by a small margin. This must be interpreted as bullish, until proven otherwise.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

Last historic analysis with monthly charts and several weekly alternates is here, video is here.

There are six weekly charts published in the last historic analysis. All but two expect more downwards movement at this time; the two bullish wave counts would be invalidated below 1,236.54. Because the remaining four bearish wave counts all expect the same movement next only one shall be published on a daily basis. Members should keep the other wave counts in mind. They will be published on a daily basis if they begin to diverge from the triangle wave count.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

The triangle so far has the best fit and look. If price shows a combination or flat may be more likely, then those ideas may be published on a daily basis. The flat and combination ideas expect movement reasonably below 1,123.08, or perhaps a new low below 1,046.27.

Cycle wave b may be an incomplete triangle. The triangle may be a contracting or barrier triangle, with a contracting triangle looking much more likely because the A-C trend line does not have a strong slope. A contracting triangle could see the B-D trend line have a stronger slope, so that the triangle trend lines converge at a reasonable rate. A barrier triangle would have a B-D trend line that would be essentially flat, and the triangle trend lines would barely converge.

Within a contracting triangle, primary wave D may not move beyond the end of primary wave B below 1,123.08. Within a barrier triangle, primary wave D may end about the same level as primary wave B at 1,123.08, so that the B-D trend line is essentially flat. Only a new low reasonably below 1,123.08 would invalidate the triangle.

Within both a contracting and barrier triangle, primary wave E may not move beyond the end of primary wave C above 1,365.68.

Four of the five sub-waves of a triangle must be zigzags, with only one sub-wave allowed to be a multiple zigzag. Primary wave C is the most common sub-wave to subdivide as a multiple, and this is how primary wave C for this example fits best.

Primary wave D must be a single structure, most likely a zigzag.

One triangle sub-wave tends to be close to 0.618 the length of its predecessor; this gives a target for primary wave D.

There are no problems in terms of subdivisions or rare structures for this wave count. It has an excellent fit and so far a typical look.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave D may be unfolding lower as a single zigzag, and within it intermediate waves (A) and (B) may be complete.

The target is widened to a $5 zone calculated at two degrees. This should have a reasonable probability.

Within intermediate wave (C), it looks likely that all of minor waves 1, 2, 3 and 4 may now be over.

A reasonably strong downwards day, which has support from volume along with a clear bearish signal now from On Balance Volume, indicates that minor wave 4 was over at the last high despite it exhibiting poor alternation and poor proportion to minor wave 2. There is a little alternation in that minor wave 2, despite being a double zigzag, mostly moved sideways and minor wave 4 has a clearer slope.

The lower edge of the Elliott channel may be helpful in showing where primary wave D may end. Minor wave 5 may either end about this trend line, or it may overshoot the trend line if it exhibits strong momentum, which is typical for fifth waves of commodities.

Within minor wave 5, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 1,265.59.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

It looks most likely that minor wave 4 was over at the last high on the 9th of July and minor wave 5 is now underway.

Minor wave 5 may only subdivide as either an impulse or an ending diagonal. An impulse is more likely; these are much more common.

The middle of minor wave 5 may have passed today. Subminuette wave iv may not move into subminuette wave i price territory above 1,237.31.

The target for primary wave D to end at all wave degrees remains the same.



Gold Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

A downwards week last week has support from volume.

There is single but weak bullish divergence between price and Stochastics.


Gold Daily 2018
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There is no longer any bullish divergence between price and On Balance Volume. There remains bullish divergence between price and RSI and Stochastics, but it is much weakened today.

Weight in this analysis is given to strong volume and a strong bearish signal from On Balance Volume. Next support area is about 1,205.

Expect more downwards movement to continue, and only look for it to end when one or preferably more of the following conditions are met:

– A bullish candlestick reversal pattern develops, or a long lower wick.

– Bullish divergence between price and RSI again develops and is reasonably strong.

– Bullish divergence between price and Stochastics again develops and is reasonably strong.

This trend is very extreme and oversold, but it does not look to be complete yet.


GDX Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Support about 20.80 has been tested about eight times and so far has held. The more often a support area is tested and holds, the more technical significance it has.

In the first instance, expect this area to continue to provide support. Only a strong downwards day, closing below support and preferably with some increase in volume, would constitute a downwards breakout from the consolidation that GDX has been in for a year now.

Resistance is about 25.50. Only a strong upwards day, closing above resistance and with support from volume, would constitute an upwards breakout.

There is some support this week for downwards movement from volume.

This weekly candlestick should not be read as a bearish engulfing pattern. For a candlestick reversal pattern to be read as such, there has to be something to reverse. Here, price is moving sideways and not trending.


GDX Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Next support is about 21.50.

However, a candlestick reversal pattern along with bullish volume and a bullish signal today from On Balance Volume suggest a low could be in place here.

Published @ 11:05 p.m. EST.