Sideways movement to end the week fits the short term expectations for the Elliott wave count.

Summary: A multi day to multi week consolidation looks likely to have begun here. It may be a sideways consolidation to last one to two weeks, remaining below 1,282.20.

When the consolidation is complete, then a final wave down to a final low is expected. The mid term target is 1,216 – 1,211. Downwards movement may be limited to no lower than 1,123.08.

Always trade with stops to protect your account. Risk only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

At the end of this week, it may be a good idea to note that neither Gold nor Silver have made new swing lows below the prior major swing lows of December 2017. They have both come very close this week, but have both failed by a small margin. This must be interpreted as bullish, until proven otherwise.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

Last historic analysis with monthly charts and several weekly alternates is here, video is here.

There are six weekly charts published in the last historic analysis. All but two expect more downwards movement at this time; the two bullish wave counts would be invalidated below 1,236.54. Because the remaining four bearish wave counts all expect the same movement next only one shall be published on a daily basis. Members should keep the other wave counts in mind. They will be published on a daily basis if they begin to diverge from the triangle wave count.

MAIN ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART – TRIANGLE

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The triangle so far has the best fit and look. If price shows a combination or flat may be more likely, then those ideas may be published on a daily basis. The flat and combination ideas expect movement reasonably below 1,123.08, or perhaps a new low below 1,046.27.

Cycle wave b may be an incomplete triangle. The triangle may be a contracting or barrier triangle, with a contracting triangle looking much more likely because the A-C trend line does not have a strong slope. A contracting triangle could see the B-D trend line have a stronger slope, so that the triangle trend lines converge at a reasonable rate. A barrier triangle would have a B-D trend line that would be essentially flat, and the triangle trend lines would barely converge.

Within a contracting triangle, primary wave D may not move beyond the end of primary wave B below 1,123.08. Within a barrier triangle, primary wave D may end about the same level as primary wave B at 1,123.08, so that the B-D trend line is essentially flat. Only a new low reasonably below 1,123.08 would invalidate the triangle.

Within both a contracting and barrier triangle, primary wave E may not move beyond the end of primary wave C above 1,365.68.

Four of the five sub-waves of a triangle must be zigzags, with only one sub-wave allowed to be a multiple zigzag. Primary wave C is the most common sub-wave to subdivide as a multiple, and this is how primary wave C for this example fits best.

Primary wave D must be a single structure, most likely a zigzag.

One triangle sub-wave tends to be close to 0.618 the length of its predecessor; this gives a target for primary wave D.

There are no problems in terms of subdivisions or rare structures for this wave count. It has an excellent fit and so far a typical look.

DAILY CHART – TRIANGLE

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Primary wave D may be unfolding lower as a single zigzag, and within it intermediate waves (A) and (B) may be complete.

The target is widened to a $5 zone calculated at two degrees. This should have a reasonable probability.

Within intermediate wave (C), it looks likely that all of minor waves 1, 2 and 3 may now be over. Minor wave 4 may have begun.

Minor wave 2 fits as a double zigzag, and was shallow. Given the guideline of alternation, minor wave 4 may most likely be a flat, combination or triangle; it may be very shallow, but more likely it may be deep in order to exhibit alternation with minor wave 2.

Minor wave 2 lasted 18 days, and it shows up on the weekly chart. Fourth waves for Gold are often quicker than second waves; minor wave 4 may last about one or two weeks.

Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory above 1,282.20.

Adjust the channel to fit as an Elliott channel drawn using Elliott’s first technique. If it is long lasting enough, then minor wave 4 may find resistance about the upper edge of this channel.

HOURLY CHART

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The first wave of all of a flat, combination or triangle must subdivide as a three. It is most commonly a zigzag.

So far a zigzag may be unfolding higher. This may be minute wave a, or it may only be minuette wave (a) if minute wave a unfolds as a flat correction. The degree of labelling may need to be adjusted as this correction unfolds.

If minuette wave (a) is correctly labelled as a five wave structure, a leading contracting diagonal, then minuette wave (b) may not move beyond its start below 1,237.82.

Minuette wave (b) may have completed as a nine wave triangle, which has an excellent fit. A nine wave triangle may form with sub-wave E of the triangle subdividing itself into a triangle.

If the direction of entry to the triangle is upwards, then the direction of exit from the triangle should be upwards. Elliott wave triangles are always continuation patterns.

The resulting movement out of Elliott wave triangles is often surprisingly brief. Minuette wave (c) would be most likely to make at least a slight new high above the end of minuette wave (a) at 1,260.44 to avoid a truncation, and it could be over very quickly.

When a zigzag upwards looks complete, then a downwards swing for minute wave b may be expected. If minute wave a subdivides as a three, then minute wave b may be very deep and may make a new price extreme beyond the start of minute wave a at 1,237.82.

Minor wave 4 may end about the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio at 1,265. If it is deeper, then the next target for it to end may be about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio which is at 1,281.75.

ALTERNATE HOURLY CHART

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This alternate hourly wave count is identical to the main hourly wave count up to the high labelled minuette wave (a). Thereafter, it looks at a different possible structure for minuette wave (b).

Minuette wave (b) may be unfolding as a double zigzag or double combination. The first zigzag in the double is labelled subminuette wave w. The double is joined by a completed three in the opposite direction, a triangle labelled subminuette wave x.

This triangle has one sub-wave, micro wave B, which subdivides itself as a triangle. While this meets Elliott wave rules for a triangle, it is not common for wave B to subdivide as a multiple and even less common for it to subdivide as a triangle. This reduces the probability of this wave count.

If the direction of entry to the triangle was downwards, then the direction of exit should also be downwards.

Subminuette wave y may be a zigzag if minuette wave (b) is a zigzag. Subminuette wave y may be a flat correction if minuette wave (b) is a double combination.

If minuette wave (a) is correctly labelled as a five wave structure, then minuette wave (b) may not move beyond its start below 1,237.82.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

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On Balance Volume has made a new swing low last week below the prior swing low, but price has not. On Balance Volume should be read as a leading indicator, so this is bearish and indicates price may likely follow through with a new swing low below 1,238.30.

The last weekly candlestick is bullish, and a short term bullish view has support from single week divergence between price and On Balance Volume, Stochastics and RSI; price made a new low this week, but none of On Balance Volume, Stochastics or RSI made new lows as they all moved higher.

DAILY CHART

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With the short term volume profile bullish, it looks like a low is now in place at least temporarily. A consolidation or new trend may have begun here. Very light volume for downwards movement within Friday’s session fits with this view.

GDX WEEKLY CHART

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Support about 20.80 has been tested about eight times and so far has held. The more often a support area is tested and holds, the more technical significance it has.

In the first instance, expect this area to continue to provide support. Only a strong downwards day, closing below support and preferably with some increase in volume, would constitute a downwards breakout from the consolidation that GDX has been in for a year now.

Resistance is about 25.50. Only a strong upwards day, closing above resistance and with support from volume, would constitute an upwards breakout.

The last upwards week lacks support from volume.

GDX DAILY CHART

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For the short term, look for some downwards movement Monday / Tuesday, indicated by Friday’s bearish candlestick.

Overall, an upwards swing may be coming to an end. Look for resistance about 23.00.

Published @ 12:56 a.m. EST on 7th July, 2018.