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Lara's Weekly Masthead

S&P 500

A strong upwards day exactly fits expectations from the Elliott wave count.

At the end of the week, there is strong support for the Elliott wave count from the AD line and On Balance Volume.

Summary: The AD line and On Balance Volume both make new all time highs. It looks like the pullback is over. Expect new highs next week.

The short term target is about 2,849 or 2,915; a consolidation lasting about two weeks may be expected at about this target.

The invalidation point may now be moved up to the last swing low at 2,691.99.

The mid to longer term target is at 2,922 (Elliott wave) or 3,045 (classic analysis). Another multi week to multi month correction is expected at one of these targets.

The final target for this bull market to end remains at 3,616.

Pullbacks are an opportunity to join the trend.

Always practice good risk management. Always trade with stops and invest only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

The biggest picture, Grand Super Cycle analysis, is here.

Last historic analysis with monthly charts is here, video is here.



S&P 500 Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Cycle wave V must complete as a five structure, which should look clear at the weekly chart level and also now at the monthly chart level. It may only be an impulse or ending diagonal. At this stage, it is clear it is an impulse.

Within cycle wave V, the third waves at all degrees may only subdivide as impulses.

Intermediate wave (4) has breached an Elliott channel drawn using Elliott’s first technique. The channel is redrawn using Elliott’s second technique: the first trend line from the ends of intermediate waves (2) to (4), then a parallel copy on the end of intermediate wave (3). Intermediate wave (5) may end either midway within the channel, or about the upper edge.

Intermediate wave (4) may now be a complete regular contracting triangle lasting fourteen weeks, one longer than a Fibonacci thirteen. There is perfect alternation and excellent proportion between intermediate waves (2) and (4).

Within intermediate wave (5), no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 2,594.62.

At this stage, the expectation is for the final target to me met in October 2019.

A multi week to multi month consolidation for primary wave 4 is expected on the way up to the final target.


S&P 500 Daily 2018
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It is possible that intermediate wave (4) is a complete regular contracting triangle, the most common type of triangle. Minor wave E may have found support just below the 200 day moving average and ending reasonably short of the A-C trend line. This is the most common look for E waves of triangles.

Intermediate wave (3) exhibits no Fibonacci ratio to intermediate wave (1). It is more likely then that intermediate wave (5) may exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to either of intermediate waves (1) or (3). The most common Fibonacci ratio would be equality in length with intermediate wave (1), but in this instance that would expect a truncation. The next common Fibonacci ratio is used to calculate a target for intermediate wave (5) to end.

Price has clearly broken out above the upper triangle B-D trend line. This indicates that it should now be over if the triangle is correctly labelled.

A trend line in lilac is added to this chart. It is the same line as the upper edge of the symmetrical triangle on the daily technical analysis chart. Price found support about this line.

Minor wave 1 may have been over at the last high. The disproportion between minute waves ii and iv gives it a three wave look at the daily chart time frame. The S&P does not always exhibit good proportions; this is an acceptable wave count for this market.

Minor wave 2 should now be over as a zigzag. Minor wave 3 upwards should have begun, and it should exhibit an increase in upwards momentum over the next week or so.

A target is calculated for minor wave 3 to end.

Within minor wave 3, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 2,691.99.


S&P 500 Daily 2018
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It is possible that minor waves 1 and 2 are already over. The last high may have been minute wave i. Minute wave ii may need one more low to be complete.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i below 2,676.81.

This alternate wave count resolves the problem of an odd looking minor wave 1 for the main wave count. The only problem with this alternate wave count is minute wave ii is not contained within a base channel which would be drawn about minor waves 1 and 2.

This wave count is very bullish. It expects to see a very strong upwards movement as the middle of a third wave begins here.



S&P 500 weekly 2018
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After two weeks of falling price, a strong candlestick reversal pattern on the weekly chart is very bullish.

The lack of volume this week is not of a concern, because this was a short week with one and a half days closed to trading for the 4th of July holiday. We have to look inside this week at daily volume bars to judge the short term volume profile.


S&P 500 daily 2018
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The symmetrical triangle may now be complete. The base distance is 340.18. Added to the breakout point of 2,704.54 this gives a target at 3,044.72. This is above the Elliott wave target at 2,922, so the Elliott wave target may be inadequate.

Since the low on the 2nd of April, 2018, price has made a series of higher highs and higher lows. This is the definition of an upwards trend. But trends do not move in perfectly straight lines; there are pullbacks and bounces along the way. While price has not made a lower low below the prior swing low of the 29th of May, the view of a possible upwards trend in place should remain.

Within the last four trading sessions for this short trading week, it is upwards days that have strongest volume. The short term volume profile is bullish.

A new all time high from On Balance Volume at the daily chart level is extremely bullish and should be given weight in this analysis. This adds confidence to the Elliott wave count.


VIX daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals
will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.

Normally, volatility should decline as price moves higher and increase as price moves lower. This means that normally inverted VIX should move in the same direction as price.

There is mid term bearish divergence between price and inverted VIX: inverted VIX has made a new swing low below the prior swing low of the 29th of May, but price has not. Downwards movement has strong support from increasing market volatility; this divergence is bearish. However, it must be noted that the last swing low of the 29th of May also came with bearish divergence between price and inverted VIX, yet price went on to make new highs.

This divergence may not be reliable. As it contradicts messages given by On Balance Volume and the AD line, it shall not be given much weight in this analysis.

Short term bullish divergence noted in last analysis has now been followed by upwards movement from price. It may be resolved here, or it may yet be followed by more upwards movement before it is resolved.


AD Line daily 2018
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There is normally 4-6 months divergence between price and market breadth prior to a full fledged bear market. This has been so for all major bear markets within the last 90 odd years. With no longer term divergence yet at this point, any decline in price should be expected to be a pullback within an ongoing bull market and not necessarily the start of a bear market. New all time highs from the AD line means that any bear market may now be an absolute minimum of 4 months away. It may of course be a lot longer than that. My next expectation for the end of this bull market may now be October 2019.

All of small, mid and large caps have moved higher this week. Small caps have made new all time highs as recently as 20th of June. The small caps may be leading the market as they tend to in the latter stages of an ageing bull market.

Breadth should be read as a leading indicator.

The AD line today makes yet another new all time high. This is extremely bullish and strongly supports the main Elliott wave count at the daily and weekly chart levels.

Price may reasonably be expected to follow through in coming weeks.


The following lows need to be exceeded for Dow Theory to confirm the end of the bull market and a change to a bear market:

DJIA: 23,360.29.

DJT: 9,806.79.

S&P500: 2,532.69.

Nasdaq: 6,630.67.

Only Nasdaq at this stage is making new all time highs. DJIA and DJT need to make new all time highs for the ongoing bull market to be confirmed.


Sideways movement to end the week fits the short term expectations for the Elliott wave count.

Summary: A multi day to multi week consolidation looks likely to have begun here. It may be a sideways consolidation to last one to two weeks, remaining below 1,282.20.

When the consolidation is complete, then a final wave down to a final low is expected. The mid term target is 1,216 – 1,211. Downwards movement may be limited to no lower than 1,123.08.

Always trade with stops to protect your account. Risk only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

At the end of this week, it may be a good idea to note that neither Gold nor Silver have made new swing lows below the prior major swing lows of December 2017. They have both come very close this week, but have both failed by a small margin. This must be interpreted as bullish, until proven otherwise.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

Last historic analysis with monthly charts and several weekly alternates is here, video is here.

There are six weekly charts published in the last historic analysis. All but two expect more downwards movement at this time; the two bullish wave counts would be invalidated below 1,236.54. Because the remaining four bearish wave counts all expect the same movement next only one shall be published on a daily basis. Members should keep the other wave counts in mind. They will be published on a daily basis if they begin to diverge from the triangle wave count.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2018
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The triangle so far has the best fit and look. If price shows a combination or flat may be more likely, then those ideas may be published on a daily basis. The flat and combination ideas expect movement reasonably below 1,123.08, or perhaps a new low below 1,046.27.

Cycle wave b may be an incomplete triangle. The triangle may be a contracting or barrier triangle, with a contracting triangle looking much more likely because the A-C trend line does not have a strong slope. A contracting triangle could see the B-D trend line have a stronger slope, so that the triangle trend lines converge at a reasonable rate. A barrier triangle would have a B-D trend line that would be essentially flat, and the triangle trend lines would barely converge.

Within a contracting triangle, primary wave D may not move beyond the end of primary wave B below 1,123.08. Within a barrier triangle, primary wave D may end about the same level as primary wave B at 1,123.08, so that the B-D trend line is essentially flat. Only a new low reasonably below 1,123.08 would invalidate the triangle.

Within both a contracting and barrier triangle, primary wave E may not move beyond the end of primary wave C above 1,365.68.

Four of the five sub-waves of a triangle must be zigzags, with only one sub-wave allowed to be a multiple zigzag. Primary wave C is the most common sub-wave to subdivide as a multiple, and this is how primary wave C for this example fits best.

Primary wave D must be a single structure, most likely a zigzag.

One triangle sub-wave tends to be close to 0.618 the length of its predecessor; this gives a target for primary wave D.

There are no problems in terms of subdivisions or rare structures for this wave count. It has an excellent fit and so far a typical look.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2018
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Primary wave D may be unfolding lower as a single zigzag, and within it intermediate waves (A) and (B) may be complete.

The target is widened to a $5 zone calculated at two degrees. This should have a reasonable probability.

Within intermediate wave (C), it looks likely that all of minor waves 1, 2 and 3 may now be over. Minor wave 4 may have begun.

Minor wave 2 fits as a double zigzag, and was shallow. Given the guideline of alternation, minor wave 4 may most likely be a flat, combination or triangle; it may be very shallow, but more likely it may be deep in order to exhibit alternation with minor wave 2.

Minor wave 2 lasted 18 days, and it shows up on the weekly chart. Fourth waves for Gold are often quicker than second waves; minor wave 4 may last about one or two weeks.

Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory above 1,282.20.

Adjust the channel to fit as an Elliott channel drawn using Elliott’s first technique. If it is long lasting enough, then minor wave 4 may find resistance about the upper edge of this channel.



Gold Weekly 2018
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On Balance Volume has made a new swing low last week below the prior swing low, but price has not. On Balance Volume should be read as a leading indicator, so this is bearish and indicates price may likely follow through with a new swing low below 1,238.30.

The last weekly candlestick is bullish, and a short term bullish view has support from single week divergence between price and On Balance Volume, Stochastics and RSI; price made a new low this week, but none of On Balance Volume, Stochastics or RSI made new lows as they all moved higher.


Gold Daily 2018
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With the short term volume profile bullish, it looks like a low is now in place at least temporarily. A consolidation or new trend may have begun here. Very light volume for downwards movement within Friday’s session fits with this view.


GDX Weekly 2018
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Support about 20.80 has been tested about eight times and so far has held. The more often a support area is tested and holds, the more technical significance it has.

In the first instance, expect this area to continue to provide support. Only a strong downwards day, closing below support and preferably with some increase in volume, would constitute a downwards breakout from the consolidation that GDX has been in for a year now.

Resistance is about 25.50. Only a strong upwards day, closing above resistance and with support from volume, would constitute an upwards breakout.

The last upwards week lacks support from volume.


GDX Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

For the short term, look for some downwards movement Monday / Tuesday, indicated by Friday’s bearish candlestick.

Overall, an upwards swing may be coming to an end. Look for resistance about 23.00.


Sideways movement with one slight new high fits expectations for the week. A new high above 74.96 to 75.26 has invalidated the alternate Elliott wave count, providing more confidence now in the main Elliott wave count.

Summary: Now expect the upwards swing has ended and a deep downwards swing may begin.

A deeper and longer lasting consolidation may have begun, which may last about 13 to 21 weeks in total. It should remain above 55.24, and the target is about 61.12. The consolidation will not move in a straight line; it may swing from resistance to support and back again in large swings. Once resistance and support are identified, then a swing trading system may be employed by more experienced traders. Support may now be about 63.0 and resistance may be about 75.25.

Always practice good risk management as the most important aspect of trading. Always trade with stops and invest only 1-5% of equity on any one trade. Failure to manage risk is the most common mistake new traders make.



US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2018
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It is possible that the bear market for Oil is over and a new bull market is in the very early stages.

A huge zigzag down to the last low may be complete and is labelled here Super Cycle wave (II).

Cycle wave b must be seen as complete in August 2013 for this wave count to work. It cannot be seen as complete at the prior major swing high in May 2011.

Cycle wave b is seen as a zigzag, and within it primary wave B is seen as a running contracting triangle. These are fairly common structures, although nine wave triangles are uncommon. All subdivisions fit.

Primary wave C moves beyond the end of primary wave A, so it avoids a truncation. But it does not have to move above the price territory of primary wave B to avoid a truncation, which is an important distinction.

If cycle wave b begins there, then cycle wave c may be seen as a complete five wave impulse.

Super Cycle wave (III) must move beyond the end of Super Cycle wave (I). It must move far enough above that point to allow room for a subsequent Super Cycle wave (IV) to unfold and remain above Super Cycle wave (I) price territory.

Cycle wave I may be incomplete. It may be unfolding as an impulse and may have now moved through the middle portion. Commodities have a tendency to exhibit swift strong fifth waves, and this tendency is especially prevalent for third wave impulses. Intermediate wave (5) to end primary wave 3 may be very swift and strong, ending with a blow off top.

When cycle wave I is complete, then cycle wave II may be a deep correction that may not move beyond the start of cycle wave I below 26.06.

Data from FXCM for USOil does not go back to the beginning of Super Cycle wave (I). Without an accurate known length of Super Cycle wave (I) a target cannot be calculated for Super Cycle wave (III) to end using Fibonacci ratios. The target for Super Cycle wave (III) may be calculated when cycle waves I, II, III and IV within it are complete. That cannot be done for many years.


US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2018
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Intermediate wave (3) may now be complete. There is no Fibonacci ratio between intermediate waves (1) and (3), and intermediate wave (3) is longer than 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

This wave count fits with classic technical analysis at the monthly and daily chart levels.

Intermediate wave (2) was a deep double zigzag. Given the guideline of alternation, intermediate wave (4) may be expected to most likely be a shallow flat, triangle or combination. It may be about even in duration with intermediate wave (2), or it may be a little longer because triangles and combinations are more time consuming structures.

In the first instance, a Fibonacci 13 weeks may be expected for intermediate wave (4). If about that time the structure is incomplete, then the next Fibonacci number in the sequence at 21 will be expected.

Intermediate wave (4) may find support about the lower edge of the black Elliott channel. It may end within the price territory of the fourth wave of one lesser degree; minor wave 4 has its territory from 66.65 to 59.13.


US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2018
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If intermediate wave (4) unfolds as a double combination, flat or triangle, then the first wave down within it would be a three wave structure and most likely a zigzag.

All of a flat, combination or triangle may have within them a new high above the start of intermediate wave (4) at 72.90 as in an expanded flat, running triangle or wave X of a double combination. There can be no upper invalidation point for this reason.

It is impossible at this stage to tell which of several possible structures intermediate wave (4) may be, only that it is least likely to be a single or multiple zigzag. Focus will be on identifying when intermediate wave (4) may be over.

The zigzag down may be minor wave A within a flat or triangle for intermediate wave (4), or it may be a zigzag within a double combination for intermediate wave (4).

The movement labelled minor wave B or X looks like an expanded flat correction. Minute wave c now fits as a completed five wave impulse. If it is over at this week’s high, then minor wave B or X is a 1.27 length of minor wave A or W. This is still within the common range of 1 to 1.38 for wave B of a flat correction.

If intermediate wave (4) is unfolding as a flat correction, then within it minor wave B has now met the minimum 0.9 length of minor wave A.

If intermediate wave (4) is unfolding as a triangle, then there is no minimum requirement for minor wave B within it.

If intermediate wave (4) is unfolding as a combination, then there is no minimum nor maximum length required for minor wave X.

Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 55.24.

The last four daily candlesticks have long lower wicks, and the candlestick of the 3rd of July has a long upper wick to complete a spinning top. With a few long lower wicks here, it is not clear that a high is yet in place. It is entirely possible that one more high may yet be seen next week before a trend change. However, the volume profile for the short term is now very bearish, which supports the idea of a high in place here.


US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2018
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This alternate wave count is identical to the first daily chart above except for the degree of labelling within intermediate wave (4) which is moved down one degree.

Intermediate wave (4) may be unfolding as a double combination, with the first structure in a double an expanded flat correction labelled minor wave W. Double combinations are very common structures.

The short term expectation for some downwards movement about here is exactly the same for both wave counts. If minute wave b moves higher, then it would most likely end at or before 75.68. At this week’s high, minute wave b is a 1.27 length to minute wave a; this is within the normal range.

The alternate wave count has been invalidated with this week’s new high above 74.96, so it will no longer be published.



US Oil Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

The short term volume profile is bearish: the strongest month in the last few months was the downwards month of May (where the balance of volume was down) and now June shows a decline in volume, so volume has not supported upwards movement here.

For the short term, On Balance Volume is also slightly bearish. This supports the idea that price may be within a correction and not necessarily a continuation of the larger upwards trend.

However, it is entirely possible that this situation could reverse and volume could start to support upwards movement, as has happened back in January 2018.

The larger trend is upwards.


US Oil Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Supporting the view that a high is in place: short term bearish volume profile, a long upper wick for the 3rd of July, and double bearish divergence with price and On Balance Volume.

Contradicting that view is the bullish candlestick now for Friday. It is possible that one more high may occur before this upwards swing ends.