The bounce continued for the week. Price has remained below the invalidation point on the main daily Elliott wave count.

Summary: The downwards trend may now resume. The short-term target is at 13.524.

The long-term target remains at 10.05.

Monthly charts were reviewed here.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

ELLIOTT WAVE COUNTS

MAIN WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART – TRIANGLE

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This first wave count has good support from classic technical analysis, so it will be favoured. This wave count looks likely.

The first wave count expects that the bear market, which began from the April 2011 high, is incomplete.

Cycle wave a is seen as a five wave impulse for this main wave count.

This first weekly chart sees cycle wave b as a now possibly complete regular contracting triangle.

Primary wave E of the triangle may have ended with an overshoot of the A-C trend line.

Within cycle wave c, primary waves 1 and 2 may now both be complete.

If it continues higher, then primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 above 17.680.

Cycle wave c needs to move below the end of cycle wave a below 13.569 in order to avoid a truncation.

DAILY CHART – TRIANGLE

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A target is calculated for primary wave 3 to reach the most common Fibonacci ratio to primary wave 1.

Primary wave 3 may only subdivide as an impulse. Within primary wave 3, intermediate wave (1) may be incomplete. Within intermediate wave (1), minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 16.195.

Minor wave 1 lasted 12 days, just one short of a Fibonacci 13. Minor wave 2 has now lasted 9 days, one longer than a Fibonacci 8. Minor wave 2 may have ended here, just short of the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio.

A target is calculated for minor wave 3 that expects it to exhibit the most common Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1.

ALTERNATE WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART – BULL WAVE COUNT

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Cycle wave II may be a complete double zigzag. Cycle wave II would be very deep at 0.96 of cycle wave I. This is typical behaviour for the first second wave correction within a new trend for commodities.

If it continues any further, then cycle wave II may not move beyond the start of cycle wave I below 13.569.

DAILY CHART – BULL WAVE COUNT

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If cycle wave II is over, then the new trend up for cycle wave III should begin with a five wave structure. This is labelled intermediate wave (1). The structure may now be complete.

Intermediate wave (2) may now be a complete regular flat correction.

Intermediate wave (3) must subdivide as an impulse. Within intermediate wave (3), minor wave 1 may be complete. Minor wave 2 may also be complete, or it may continue sideways as a combination or expanded flat. Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 below 14.90.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

The Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern engulfs the prior seven weekly candlesticks. It is an extremely strong bearish reversal pattern and offers good support to the Triangle Elliott wave count.

Price has closed below support.

This week price remains below support. The last two weeks of upwards movement so far look like a typical back test of resistance at prior support.

DAILY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

The short-term volume profile this week is very unclear. No conclusions are drawn from it.

Look for a breakout from On Balance Volume to possibly signal the next direction for price.

Published @ 11:39 p.m. EST on March 10, 2019.

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