GOLD: Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis | Charts – November 29, 2019
Summary: The downwards trend may resume. The Elliott wave target is at 1,348.
A target calculated from the triangle is about 1,431.
For the very short term, a new swing high above 1,514.29 would add some confidence in a more bullish outlook. The target would then be at 1,567, 1,635 or 1,693.
For the bigger picture, the bearish Elliott wave count expects a new downwards trend to last one to several years has begun. The alternate bearish wave count looks at the possibility that one final high to 1,559 is required first.
The bullish Elliott wave count expects a primary degree fourth wave has completed and the upwards trend has resumed.
Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.
Monthly charts were last published here.
BEARISH ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
WEEKLY CHART
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It is possible that Super Cycle wave (b) is complete as a double zigzag.
The first zigzag in the double is labelled cycle wave w. The double is joined by a three in the opposite direction, a triangle labelled cycle wave x. The second zigzag in the double is labelled cycle wave y.
The purpose of the second zigzag in a double is to deepen the correction. Cycle wave y has achieved this purpose.
A new low below 1,346.45 would add strong confidence to this wave count. At that stage, the bullish Elliott wave count would be invalidated.
A wide best fit channel is added in light blue. This channel contains all of Super Cycle wave (b) and may provide resistance and support. Copy this channel over to daily charts.
Super Cycle wave (c) must subdivide as a five wave structure, most likely an impulse. It may last several years. It would be very likely to make new lows below the end of Super Cycle wave (a) at 1,046.27 to avoid a truncation.
DAILY CHART
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Classic analysis now reasonably supports this wave count.
Cycle wave y may be a complete zigzag. Within both of primary waves A and C, there is good proportion between intermediate waves (2) and (4). Within both of primary waves A and C, there is good alternation in structure of intermediate waves (2) and (4).
Within cycle wave y, there is no Fibonacci Ratio between primary waves A and C.
If there has been a trend change at Super Cycle degree, then a five down needs to develop on the daily and weekly charts. So far that is incomplete. It will be labelled intermediate wave (1).
HOURLY CHART
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There may now be a series of five complete first and second waves. A strong downwards breakout may come within a week now.
Micro wave 2 may be complete, just above the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio. It may possibly be more shallow than second waves usually are due to the strong downwards pull of the middle of a third wave.
Gold typically exhibits swift and strong fifth waves. This tendency is especially prevalent for fifth waves to end third wave impulses one degree higher. Look for the possibility of one or more of these third waves to end with strength.
Micro wave 2 may not move beyond its start above 1,478.33.
ALTERNATE DAILY CHART
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It is possible that the double zigzag for Super Cycle wave (b) may be incomplete and may yet require one more high.
Within cycle wave y, primary wave A may have been over at the last high.
Primary wave B may be complete as a single zigzag. Within the zigzag, intermediate wave (C) is just 3.56 short of equality in length with intermediate wave (A). Intermediate wave (B) is a running contracting triangle.
It is possible for this wave count that primary wave B could continue lower as a double zigzag. Primary wave B may not move beyond the start of primary wave A below 1,266.61.
A new low now below 1,446.68 would see primary wave B relabelled as a double zigzag, continuing lower.
Primary wave C would be expected to find strong resistance and end at the upper edge of the blue best fit channel copied over from the weekly chart.
BULLISH ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
WEEKLY CHART
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This wave count sees the the bear market complete at the last major low for Gold in November 2015.
If Gold is in a new bull market, then it should begin with a five wave structure upwards on the weekly chart. However, the biggest problem with this wave count is the structure labelled cycle wave I because this wave count must see it as a five wave structure, but it looks more like a three wave structure.
Commodities often exhibit swift strong fifth waves that force the fourth wave corrections coming just prior and just after to be more brief and shallow than their counterpart second waves. It is unusual for a commodity to exhibit a quick second wave and a more time consuming fourth wave, and this is how cycle wave I is labelled. This wave count still suffers from this very substantial problem, and for this reason the bearish wave count is still considered because it has a better fit in terms of Elliott wave structure.
Cycle wave II subdivides well as a double combination: zigzag – X – expanded flat.
Cycle wave III may have begun. Within cycle wave III, primary waves 1 and 2 may now be complete. Primary wave 3 has now moved above the end of primary wave 1 meeting a core Elliott wave rule. It has now moved far enough to allow room for primary wave 4 to unfold and remain above primary wave 1 price territory. Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory below 1,346.45.
Cycle wave III so far for this wave count would have been underway now for 67 weeks. It exhibits some support from volume and increasing ATR. This wave count has some support from classic technical analysis.
The channel drawn about cycle wave III is an adjusted Elliott channel. The lower edge is pulled lower.
Add the wide best fit channel to weekly and daily charts.
DAILY CHART
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Primary wave 4 may be complete as a single zigzag. Primary wave 4 may have lasted 49 sessions, just six more than primary wave 2, which lasted 43 sessions. The proportion remains very good for this part of the wave count.
A target for cycle wave III is calculated also now at primary degree. If price reaches the first target and keeps rising, then the second higher target may be used.
If it continues any further, then primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory below 1,346.45.
If primary wave 4 is a single zigzag, then there is no alternation in structure with the single zigzag of primary wave 2. There is some alternation within the structures: primary wave 2 as a zigzag has intermediate wave (B) as a zigzag, while intermediate wave (B) within the zigzag of primary wave 4 is a triangle. Primary wave 2 is shallow at 0.43 the length of primary wave 1, and primary wave 4 is close to the same at 0.38 the length of primary wave 3. There is inadequate alternation in depth.
HOURLY CHART
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Within primary wave 5, intermediate wave (1) may be an incomplete five wave structure. Within that structure, minor waves 1 and 2 may now be complete.
Within minor wave 3, minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i below 1,452.18. The invalidation point is left at this point to allow for the possibility that sideways movement this week may be a continuation of minute wave ii.
If this invalidation point is passed, then this short-term wave count would then consider minor wave 2 may be moving lower. The invalidation point would move lower to 1,446.68.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
MONTHLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Overall, this chart is bullish. However, with RSI reaching overbought at the last high, upwards movement may be limited.
The last two months of sideways movement look like a consolidation within an ongoing upwards trend.
Some suspicion regarding the current upwards trend may be warranted by bearish divergence between price and On Balance Volume at the last lows. Also, at the last high price has made a substantial new high above April 2018, but On Balance Volume is flat.
November completes with downwards movement that does not have support from volume. The market has fallen of its own weight.
The all time high for Gold in September 2011 is on the upper left hand side of this chart. Notice upwards movement ended with strong support from volume and early downwards months exhibited volume which was weaker. Strong volume is not required at the beginning of a bearish movement for Gold for it to be sustainable.
WEEKLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
When trends reach very extreme, candlestick reversal patterns should be given weight. The Dark Cloud Cover bearish reversal pattern is given more bearish weight from the long upper wick.
A very strong downwards week with strong support from volume four weeks ago supports a bearish view.
This week is another small range week that has closed green and the balance of volume is upwards, although the week moved price higher with a higher high and a higher low. The short-term volume profile looks bearish, but a better judgement may come at the daily chart level.
DAILY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Since the last high on the 4th of September, there is now a series of swing lows and swing highs.
After a breakout from the triangle, the target is to be about 1,431.
The downwards breakout from the triangle had strong support from volume pushing price lower, so confidence may be had in the breakout. A back test of resistance at the lower triangle trend line has completed; resistance has successfully held there. It looks reasonable to now expect new lows from Gold in coming days. This chart strongly supports the bearish Elliott wave count.
A close near the high for Friday’s session and some support from volume suggest a small bounce may continue on Monday. Overall, in most recent days of the last two weeks volume is still strongest on downwards days.
GDX WEEKLY CHART
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GDX, like Gold, often begins a new trend slowly with overlapping and flat or declining ATR. From the last major high at 30.96 a few weeks ago, there has been a strong Bearish Engulfing pattern and strong downwards weeks with greater range and volume than upwards weeks. GDX may have had a trend change. However, bullish divergence between price and On Balance Volume is strong and persistent; it contradicts the view of a trend change.
GDX DAILY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
GDX has made a new swing low. There is now a series of four lower swing highs and four lower swing lows from the high on the 4th of September. It still looks like GDX may have had a trend change. This view should remain dominant while the last swing high at 28.18 on the 31st of October remains intact.
For the short term, a little support from volume on Friday and a close near the high for the session suggest Monday may begin with a little upwards movement.
Published @ 10:30 p.m. EST.
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New updates to this analysis are in bold.
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