SILVER: Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis | Charts – January 3, 2020
Summary: The target for upwards movement to end is now at 21.375.
ELLIOTT WAVE COUNTS
Last updated monthly charts may be found here.
BEARISH WAVE COUNT
WEEKLY CHART
Super Cycle wave (b) may be an incomplete regular flat correction.
Within the regular flat correction, cycle wave a subdivides well as a zigzag and cycle wave b subdivides well as a zigzag, which is a 0.96 correction of cycle wave a.
Cycle wave c must complete as a five wave structure. Within cycle wave c, primary waves 1 through to 4 may be complete. If it continues any further, then primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory below 16.195.
Regular flat corrections often fit within parallel channels. Cycle wave c may end about resistance at the upper edge of the channel. The most common Fibonacci Ratio for cycle wave c within a regular flat would be equality in length with cycle wave a.
It would be extremely likely, for this wave count, for cycle wave c to move at least slightly above the end of cycle wave a at 21.062 to avoid a truncation.
Within cycle wave c, primary waves 1 and 3 both lasted 14 weeks, one longer than a Fibonacci 13. Primary wave 4 has now lasted 14 weeks.
DAILY CHART
Cycle wave C may be subdividing as an impulse. Within the impulse, primary waves 1 to 4 may be complete.
Primary wave 5 must subdivide as a five wave structure. Within primary wave 5, so far intermediate waves (1) and (2) may be complete. Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 17.088.
A new short-term target is calculated for intermediate wave (3) to end. About this point a multi day consolidation for intermediate wave (4) may begin.
Intermediate wave (3) may only subdivide as an impulse.
BULLISH WAVE COUNT
WEEKLY CHART
This bullish Elliott wave count sees a new bull market beginning for Silver at the low in December 2015.
A new bull market should begin with a five wave structure upwards. This is labelled cycle wave I.
Following five steps forward should be three steps back. This is labelled cycle wave II. The Elliott wave corrective structure of cycle wave II is labelled as a double zigzag, which is a fairly common structure.
Cycle wave III may only subdivide as an impulse. Within cycle wave III, only primary wave 1 may be unfolding. Within primary wave 1, intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 16.195.
Cycle wave III must move beyond the end of cycle wave I above 21.062. Cycle wave III must move far enough above this point to allow room for cycle wave IV to unfold and remain above cycle wave I price territory.
DAILY CHART
Both this bullish Elliott wave count and the bearish Elliott wave count now expect a fourth wave has completed. The targets for the next upwards movement are different.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
WEEKLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Silver is back within a strong area of resistance and support, identified by blue shaded areas.
Bearish divergence between the September highs and last week’s high between price and On Balance Volume has disappeared.
This week has some support from volume, but range has declined. Two slightly long upper wicks on the last two weekly candlesticks is slightly bearish.
DAILY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
There is an upwards trend in place. There will be consolidations and pullbacks along the way. However, conditions are becoming extreme and at the end of the week there is a little weakness in upwards movement. Look for the possibility that a consolidation or pullback may come sooner rather than later.
Published @ 07:10 p.m. EST on January4, 2020.
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New updates to this analysis are in bold.
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