SILVER: Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis | Charts – March 6, 2020
Resistance for Silver for the week was expected to be about 17.30 to 17.45. The week ended with a high at 17.57.
Silver remains well below its last high (Gold ended the week with a strong session for Friday).
Summary: A target after the downwards breakout is now calculated at 14.10. A new low below 16.195 would add further confidence in a downwards trend.
ELLIOTT WAVE COUNTS
Last updated monthly charts may be found here.
BEARISH WAVE COUNT
WEEKLY CHART
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Super Cycle wave (b) may be a complete double combination. This structure has been relabelled after further consideration of this prior alternate (this process may be viewed in a supplemental video last week).
Within the double combination, cycle wave w may be a complete zigzag, cycle wave x completes as a corrective structure (a zigzag) in the opposite direction to join the two structures of the double combination, and cycle wave y may be a complete expanded flat correction. Within the expanded flat, primary wave B is a 1.58 length of primary wave A; this is longer than the common range of up to 1.38 but within an allowable guideline of up to 2. There is no Fibonacci ratio between primary waves C and A.
If Super Cycle wave (b) is over, then Super Cycle wave (c) may have begun. Super Cycle wave (c) must subdivide as a five wave motive structure, most likely an impulse. Within Super Cycle wave (c), cycle wave II may not move beyond the start of cycle wave I above 19.628.
DAILY CHART
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Cycle wave I must subdivide as a five wave motive structure, most likely an impulse.
Within cycle wave I, primary waves 1 and 2 may be complete. Primary wave 2 fits as a very rare triple combination: flat – X – flat – X – zigzag. All subdivisions fit very well, so a very rare structure in this position may be acceptable.
Primary wave 3 may only subdivide as an impulse. Within the impulse, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 18.920.
BULLISH WAVE COUNT
WEEKLY CHART
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This bullish Elliott wave count sees a new bull market beginning for Silver at the low in December 2015.
A new bull market should begin with a five wave structure upwards. This is labelled cycle wave I.
Following five steps forward should be three steps back. This is labelled cycle wave II. The Elliott wave corrective structure of cycle wave II is labelled as a double zigzag, which is a fairly common structure.
Cycle wave III may only subdivide as an impulse. Within cycle wave III, only primary wave 1 may be unfolding. Within primary wave 1, intermediate waves (1) through to (4) may now be complete. Intermediate wave (4) may have moved very slightly lower this week. If minor wave C within it continues any lower, then intermediate wave (4) may not overlap intermediate wave (1) price territory below 16.195. If this price point is passed, then this alternate may be fully discarded.
Intermediate wave (5) would be very likely to make at least a slight new high above the end of intermediate wave (3) at 19.628 to avoid a truncation.
Cycle wave III must move beyond the end of cycle wave I above 21.062. Cycle wave III must move far enough above this point to allow room for cycle wave IV to unfold and remain above cycle wave I price territory.
DAILY CHART
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With intermediate wave (4) moving lower very slightly this week, a target for intermediate wave (5) is recalculated. The Elliott channel is slightly adjusted and still uses Elliott’s second technique.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
WEEKLY CHART
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Last week price closed below prior support at 16.57 with support from volume. However, this week price has strongly returned above support. The downwards breakout was false.
Upwards movement this week lacks support from volume. Strongest volume recently is in downwards weeks, which still suggests a downwards breakout may unfold.
DAILY CHART
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Price has bounced after the selling climax at the end of the prior week. Upwards movement lacks support from volume, and the week has ended with a bearish reversal pattern in Dark Cloud Cover with some support from volume. The bounce may be over.
Published @ 05:30 p.m. EST on March 7, 2020.
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New updates to this analysis are in bold.