A little more upwards movement remains within a small channel and below the short-term invalidation point. The Elliott wave count remains the same.

Summary: The next target is at 1,237. Risk may now be moved down to 1,638.61.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

Monthly charts were last updated here.

MAIN BEARISH ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

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Super Cycle wave (b) may be a complete double zigzag.

The first zigzag in the double is labelled cycle wave w. The double is joined by a three in the opposite direction, a triangle labelled cycle wave x. The second zigzag in the double is labelled cycle wave y.

The purpose of the second zigzag in a double is to deepen the correction. Cycle wave y has achieved this purpose.

A wide best fit channel is added in light blue. Copy this channel over to daily charts. Price has now closed back below the upper edge of this channel.

DAILY CHART

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Super Cycle wave (b) may be complete.

The second zigzag in the double, labelled cycle wave y, may be complete. There is no Fibonacci ratio between primary waves A and C.

If there was a trend change at Super Cycle degree, then a five down should develop at daily, weekly and monthly time frames. The first five down at the daily chart level will be labelled intermediate wave (1), and it may be incomplete. Within intermediate wave (1), minor waves 1 and 2 may now be complete. Within minor wave 3, no second wave correction may move beyond its start above 1,638.61.

HOURLY CHART

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There may now be within the new downwards trend two overlapping first and second waves:  minor waves 1 and 2 (seen on the daily chart) and now minute waves i and ii. 

Draw a channel about minute wave ii as shown. The possibility that minute wave ii may continue higher must be accepted while price remains within the channel. Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 1,638.61.

If price breaks below the lower edge of the channel, then that may be taken as indication that minute wave ii may be over and minute wave iii may then have begun. The invalidation point may then be moved down to the end of minute wave ii.

This wave count now expects the next wave down may be a third wave at two degrees. An increase in downwards momentum may be expected.

ALTERNATE BULLISH ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

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This wave count sees the the bear market complete at the last major low for Gold on 3 December 2015.

If Gold is in a new bull market, then it should begin with a five wave structure upwards on the weekly chart.

Cycle wave I fits as a five wave impulse with reasonably proportionate corrections for primary waves 2 and 4. This resolves a previous major problem with the bullish wave count.

Cycle wave II now fits as a double flat. However, a problem arises with the relabelling of this structure. Within the first flat correction labelled primary wave W, this wave count now needs to ignore what looks like an obvious triangle from July to September 2016 (this can be seen labelled as a triangle on the bear wave count above). This movement must now be labelled as a series of overlapping first and second waves.

Within the first flat correction labelled primary wave W of the double flat of cycle wave II, intermediate wave (B) is 1.69 the length of intermediate wave (A). This is longer than the common range of up to 1.38, but within an allowable guideline of up to 2. The length of intermediate wave (B) reduces the probability of this wave count.

Cycle wave III may be complete. Cycle wave IV may not move into cycle wave I price territory below 1,303.51.

DAILY CHART

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Cycle wave III may be complete. Cycle wave IV may not move into cycle wave I price territory below 1,303.51.

Cycle wave II was relatively deep at 0.55 of cycle wave I. If cycle wave IV exhibits alternation in depth, it may more likely be shallow; the first target at 0.382 of cycle wave III would be preferred.

Cycle wave II was a very long lasting double combination. It lasted 119 weeks. Cycle wave IV may most likely be a zigzag, which tend to be quicker structures, but it would still be expected to last several months.

HOURLY CHART

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Both hourly charts are essentially the same at this time. Both see an impulse unfolding lower.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

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The last Bearish Engulfing pattern is extreme. The pattern fully engulfs the prior nine weekly candlesticks, and it has some support from volume. This strongly indicates a trend change after the upwards trend reached very extreme and conditions reached overbought and exhibited bearish divergence.

Price does not move in straight lines. Look out for bounces and consolidations on the way down. The first major bounce within a new trend for Gold is often very deep.

This week completes an inside week with a red candlestick. Downwards movement within the week lacks support from volume.

DAILY CHART

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Two bearish long upper wicks, weak volume for upwards sessions, and a bearish candlestick reversal pattern are together a warning that this bounce may be over.

Next support is about 1,565 and below that about 1,530.

Downwards days in recent weeks still have stronger volume than upwards days. The volume profile remains bearish so far. The last upwards day is particularly weak, which suggests another bounce may be over here.

GDX WEEKLY CHART

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There is support below in a zone about 16.75 to 15.85. Price has bounced up strongly again within this zone.

Further weakness in volume for another green weekly candlestick suggests upwards movement may be over here or very soon.

GDX DAILY CHART

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There has been a trend change to downwards. This trend has support from volume pushing price lower and exhibits strength in increasing ATR.

The 55 day moving average has crossed below the 200 day moving average. This is fairly bearish.

Published @ 07:57 p.m. EST.

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New updates to this analysis are in bold.