A second bearish candlestick pattern today suggests a change to the Elliott wave count may be necessary. A main and alternate scenario is presented for each daily Elliott wave count.

Summary: Now two bearish reversal patterns expect a high may now be in place. 

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

Monthly charts were last updated here.

MAIN BEARISH ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

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Super Cycle wave (b) may be a complete double zigzag.

The first zigzag in the double is labelled cycle wave w. The double is joined by a three in the opposite direction, a combination labelled cycle wave x. The second zigzag in the double is labelled cycle wave y.

With cycle wave x ending earlier and cycle wave y beginning earlier, primary wave A within cycle wave y now looks like a five wave impulse. Primary wave B may be a complete expanded flat correction. Primary wave C may be a complete impulse.

The purpose of the second zigzag in a double is to deepen the correction. Cycle wave y has achieved this purpose.

A wide best fit channel is added in light blue. Copy this channel over to daily charts.

DAILY CHART

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The daily chart focusses on the structure of cycle wave y. It is possible today that primary wave C may be over. Technical analysis of StockCharts data supports a possible trend change.

A new low below 1,666.41 would add confidence that a high is in place. While price remains within the narrow channel and above this price point, then it is possible that the upwards trend remains.

HOURLY CHART

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It is possible that the impulse of intermediate wave (C) could be complete. Within the new downwards trend: no second wave correction may move beyond its start above 1,744.37.

A breach of the best fit channel would add some confidence to this wave count. A new low below 1,666.41 would add further confidence.

ALTERNATE HOURLY CHART

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While price remains above 1,666.41 and within the best fit channel, then this wave count will remain valid and have a reasonable probability.

The target remains the same.

Minor wave 4 may be a complete single zigzag. If it continues lower as a double zigzag, then it may not move into minor wave 1 price territory below 1,666.41.

ALTERNATE BULLISH ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

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This wave count sees the the bear market complete at the last major low for Gold on 3 December 2015.

If Gold is in a new bull market, then it should begin with a five wave structure upwards on the weekly chart.

Cycle wave I fits as a five wave impulse with reasonably proportionate corrections for primary waves 2 and 4. This resolves a previous major problem with the bullish wave count.

Cycle wave II now fits as a double flat. However, a problem arises with the relabelling of this structure. Within the first flat correction labelled primary wave W, this wave count now needs to ignore what looks like an obvious triangle from July to September 2016 (this can be seen labelled as a triangle on the bear wave count above). This movement must now be labelled as a series of overlapping first and second waves.

Within the first flat correction labelled primary wave W of the double flat of cycle wave II, intermediate wave (B) is 1.69 the length of intermediate wave (A). This is longer than the common range of up to 1.38, but within an allowable guideline of up to 2. The length of intermediate wave (B) reduces the probability of this wave count.

Cycle wave III may be complete. Cycle wave IV may not move into cycle wave I price territory below 1,303.51.

DAILY CHART

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Cycle wave III may be complete. Cycle wave IV may not move into cycle wave I price territory below 1,303.51.

Cycle wave II was relatively deep at 0.55 of cycle wave I. If cycle wave IV exhibits alternation in depth, it may more likely be shallow; the first target at 0.382 of cycle wave III would be preferred.

Cycle wave IV may subdivide as a flat correction, triangle or combination. Both a flat and triangle would still provide structural alternation with the combination of cycle wave II.

If cycle wave IV subdivides as a flat correction, then within it the common range for primary wave B within a flat would be from 1 to 1.38 times the length of primary wave A. If primary wave B is now over, then it is within this most common range.

If cycle wave IV subdivides as a triangle, then within it primary wave B may make a new high above the start of primary wave A as in a running triangle.

Primary wave B may be a complete zigzag. Within the zigzag: a narrow channel is drawn about the end of primary wave B.

There is no upper invalidation point for this wave count.

HOURLY CHART

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It is possible today that primary wave B may be complete. 

Within primary wave C: no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 1,744.37.

A breach of the best fit channel would add a little confidence to this wave count. A new low below 1,687.42 would add further confidence.

ALTERNATE HOURLY CHART

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It remains possible that primary wave B may be incomplete. The target remains the same.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

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New highs last week come while the upwards trend is again very extreme. Volume this week is very weak. This upwards breakout should be treated with reasonable suspicion.

DAILY CHART

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An Advance Block pattern, a long upper wick, and now an Evening Star pattern are all bearish reversal signs.  Mid-term bearish divergence between price and RSI increases the bearishness of these signals.

GDX WEEKLY CHART

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Another wide ranging upwards week does not have support from volume. This upwards movement is suspicious.

GDX DAILY CHART

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Now two bearish candlestick reversal patterns warn of a trend change here.

Published @ 06:03 p.m. EST.

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New updates to this analysis are in bold.