Overall, analysis of Gold has expected downwards movement.

A strong bounce is normal early on in a new trend. This is anticipated and Fibonacci ratios are used as targets.

Summary: A high may now be in place. A target for the bullish wave count for a downwards wave is at 1,324. The main bearish wave count expects a new downwards trend for several months to new lows below 1,046.27.

For the short term, a bounce may reach about 1,714 or above. It may last one to a few days.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

Monthly charts were last updated here.

MAIN BEARISH ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

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Super Cycle wave (b) may be a complete double zigzag.

The first zigzag in the double is labelled cycle wave w. The double is joined by a three in the opposite direction, a combination labelled cycle wave x. The second zigzag in the double is labelled cycle wave y.

With cycle wave x ending earlier and cycle wave y beginning earlier, primary wave A within cycle wave y now looks like a five wave impulse. Primary wave B may be a complete expanded flat correction. Primary wave C may be a complete impulse.

The purpose of the second zigzag in a double is to deepen the correction. Cycle wave y has achieved this purpose.

A wide best fit channel is added in light blue. Copy this channel over to daily charts.

DAILY CHART

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The daily chart focusses on the structure of cycle wave y. It is possible again that primary wave C may be over. Technical analysis of StockCharts data supports a possible trend change.

A new low below 1,666.41 would add confidence that a high is in place. While price remains within the narrow channel and above this price point, then it is possible that the upwards trend remains.

HOURLY CHART

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Minor wave 1 may again be complete. It now looks more like a five wave impulse.

Minor wave 2 may have begun. Minor wave 2 would most likely subdivide as a zigzag and would most likely be very deep. The 0.618 Fibonacci ratio would be a preferred target; if this is wrong, it may not be high enough. Minor wave 2 may last a few days.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 1,744.37.

ALTERNATE BULLISH ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

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This wave count sees the the bear market complete at the last major low for Gold on 3 December 2015.

If Gold is in a new bull market, then it should begin with a five wave structure upwards on the weekly chart.

Cycle wave I fits as a five wave impulse with reasonably proportionate corrections for primary waves 2 and 4. This resolves a previous major problem with the bullish wave count.

Cycle wave II now fits as a double flat. However, a problem arises with the relabelling of this structure. Within the first flat correction labelled primary wave W, this wave count now needs to ignore what looks like an obvious triangle from July to September 2016 (this can be seen labelled as a triangle on the bear wave count above). This movement must now be labelled as a series of overlapping first and second waves.

Within the first flat correction labelled primary wave W of the double flat of cycle wave II, intermediate wave (B) is 1.69 the length of intermediate wave (A). This is longer than the common range of up to 1.38, but within an allowable guideline of up to 2. The length of intermediate wave (B) reduces the probability of this wave count.

Cycle wave III may be complete. Cycle wave IV may not move into cycle wave I price territory below 1,303.51.

DAILY CHART

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Cycle wave III may be complete. Cycle wave IV may not move into cycle wave I price territory below 1,303.51.

Cycle wave II was relatively deep at 0.55 of cycle wave I. If cycle wave IV exhibits alternation in depth, it may more likely be shallow; the first target at 0.382 of cycle wave III would be preferred.

Cycle wave IV may subdivide as a flat correction, triangle or combination. Both a flat and triangle would still provide structural alternation with the combination of cycle wave II.

If cycle wave IV subdivides as a flat correction, then within it the common range for primary wave B within a flat would be from 1 to 1.38 times the length of primary wave A. If primary wave B is now over, then it is within this most common range.

If cycle wave IV subdivides as a triangle, then within it primary wave B may make a new high above the start of primary wave A as in a running triangle.

Primary wave B may be a complete zigzag.

There is no upper invalidation point for this wave count.

HOURLY CHART

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Minor wave 1 may be complete. Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 1,744.37.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

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A long upper wick, a close near lows for the week, and a slight increase in volume for this last downwards week compared to the prior upwards week all suggest more downwards movement this week.

DAILY CHART

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An Advance Block pattern, a long upper wick, and now an Evening Star pattern are all bearish reversal signs. Mid-term bearish divergence between price and RSI increases the bearishness of these signals.

The short-term volume profile is bearish. A long lower wick suggests a bounce may begin.

GDX WEEKLY CHART

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Weak volume for upwards movement and now a bearish long upper wick suggest more downwards movement this week.

GDX DAILY CHART

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A small pennant pattern may be completing. A target from the pattern is calculated at 37.44. The target may be used only if price effects an upwards breakout above the upper trend line of the pennant; an upwards breakout is a close above the trend line on an upwards day that should have support from volume. There is no breakout yet. The trend lines of the pennant pattern are today adjusted.

Published @ 09:03 p.m. EST.

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New updates to this analysis are in bold.