This market does not lend itself very well to Elliott wave analysis. Movement is very choppy and overlapping.

Summary: The best Elliott wave count I can find sees the big upwards wave from July 2011 to March 2020 as a counter trend movement. The risk that a major high is in place is high. This has some support from classic analysis at the monthly chart level.

ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

MONTHLY CHART

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This is the maximum amount of data available from Barchart.

A view of the bigger picture, from Yahoo Finance data, shows higher prices and a downwards trend to the first major swing low on this chart labeled cycle wave 0, which is where this wave count begins.

Fitting this structure into a bigger picture, it expects that the large wave upwards labelled a double zigzag may be an Elliott wave corrective structure. The larger picture for USDAUD may be a downwards trend.

The upwards wave will not fit as an impulse. The conclusion for the bigger picture is this may be a counter trend movement. It will fit well as a double zigzag.

WEEKLY CHART

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The second zigzag in a double ended with a blow off top. Primary wave B within cycle wave y fits as a running contracting triangle.

An end to cycle wave y would be indicated if price makes a new low below 1.4975. At that stage, downwards movement may not be a fourth wave correction within primary wave C, so primary wave C would most likely be over. This would give confidence in a trend change to downwards.

DAILY CHART

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The daily chart focuses on the structure of primary wave C.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

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A long bearish upper wick, with bearish divergence between price and RSI after RSI reached overbought, suggests the risk here of a trend change is high. Support below is identified on the chart.

WEEKLY CHART

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A very long upper wick suggests a trend change.

Notice the week of the September 3, 2019: That week completed a Bearish Engulfing pattern with long term bearish divergence between price and RSI, yet the resulting downwards movement did not last for long and was not a major trend change. This prior example is a warning that a trend change may be expected, but it makes no comment on how major the next trend may be.

DAILY CHART

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Downwards movement lacks range and is now choppy and overlapping. Look out for signs of a reversal.

Published @ 09:40 a.m. EST.

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New updates to this analysis are in bold.