The short-term target at 1,777 was met. Price turned down at 1,778.32.

Summary: A new high above 1,764.12 has invalidated what was the main wave count leaving a more bullish wave count. The next target is at 1,820. The final target is at 1,980.

However, Stockcharts data has not confirmed an upwards breakout as price has not closed above resistance. On Balance Volume yesterday gave a bearish signal. If targets are wrong, then they may be too optimistic.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

Monthly charts were last updated here.

MAIN BEARISH ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

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The bigger picture for this main bearish Elliott wave count sees Gold as still within a bear market, in a three steps back pattern that is labelled Grand Super Cycle wave IV on monthly charts.

Super Cycle wave (b) within Grand Super Cycle wave IV may be an incomplete double zigzag.

The first zigzag in the double is labelled cycle wave w. The double is joined by a three in the opposite direction, a combination labelled cycle wave x. The second zigzag in the double is labelled cycle wave y.

The purpose of the second zigzag in a double is to deepen the correction. Cycle wave y has achieved this purpose.

DAILY CHART

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Primary wave C may be an incomplete five wave impulse.

Within the impulse: intermediate waves (1) through to (3) may be complete and intermediate wave (4) may have continued lower as a double zigzag. Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 1,548.43.

An Elliott channel is drawn about primary wave C. Primary wave C does not fit well within this channel.

Draw a best fit channel about the start of intermediate wave (5) as shown. Copy the channel over to the hourly chart. The lower edge of the channel may provide support for corrections along the way up.

HOURLY CHART

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The hourly chart shows all of minor wave 3 so far. Minor wave 3 may only subdivide as an impulse.

Gold typically exhibits swift strong fifth waves to end third waves one degree higher. Look out for the possibility that minute wave v to end minor wave 3 may exhibit a blow off top.

Minute wave iv within minor wave 3 may not move into minute wave i price territory below 1,731.92.

ALTERNATE BULLISH ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

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This wave count sees the the bear market complete at the last major low for Gold on 3 December 2015.

If Gold is in a new bull market, then it should begin with a five wave structure upwards on the weekly chart.

Cycle wave I fits as a five wave impulse with reasonably proportionate corrections for primary waves 2 and 4.

Cycle wave II fits as a double flat. However, within the first flat correction labelled primary wave W, this wave count needs to ignore what looks like an obvious triangle from July to September 2016 (this can be seen labelled as a triangle on the bear wave count above). This movement must be labelled as a series of overlapping first and second waves. Ignoring this triangle reduces the probability of this wave count in Elliott wave terms.

Within the first flat correction labelled primary wave W of the double flat of cycle wave II, intermediate wave (B) is 1.69 the length of intermediate wave (A). This is longer than the common range of up to 1.38, but within an allowable guideline of up to 2. The length of intermediate wave (B) reduces the probability of this wave count.

Cycle wave III may be complete. Cycle wave IV may not move into cycle wave I price territory below 1,303.51.

DAILY CHART

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Cycle wave IV may be an incomplete expanded flat correction. Primary wave A within the flat correction may have subdivided as a zigzag. Primary wave B may be continuing higher as a double zigzag.

The common range of primary wave B would extend up to 1.38 times the length of primary wave A at 1,795.98. A maximum allowable guideline for primary wave B would be up to 2 times the length of primary wave A at 1,949.96. There is no Elliott wave rule stating a limit for B waves within expanded flat corrections, so there is no rule which may be used to determine an upper invalidation point for this wave count.

Draw a best fit channel about intermediate wave (Y). Copy the channel over to the hourly chart. Assume upwards movement may continue while price remains within the channel. If the channel is breached, then assume intermediate wave (Y) may be over.

HOURLY CHART

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Minor wave C may be completing as a five wave impulse. Minute wave iv within the impulse may not move into minute wave i price territory below 1,731.92.

The target calculated has been met and slightly exceeded, but the structure for minor wave C looks incomplete. Minute wave v may end slightly above the end of minute wave iii at 1,778.32.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Price remains within a consolidation with support about 1,665 to 1,680. The short-term volume profile is still bearish, suggesting a downwards breakout. Upwards movement within the last week lacks support from volume.

DAILY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Price remains range bound with support about 1,665 to 1,675 and resistance about 1,765 to 1,790. The short-term volume profile remains bearish, suggesting a downwards breakout may be more likely. The last upwards session from Stockcharts has not closed above resistance. There is still no upwards breakout.

An upwards breakout requires support from volume for confidence. Upwards breakouts lacking support from volume should be viewed with suspicion. An upwards breakout requires price to close above resistance at 1,788.80, which is the high of 14th of April.

GDX WEEKLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

The volume profile may be bearish, but this is best judged at the daily chart level this week.

GDX DAILY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Price is range bound with resistance about 35.55 to 37.50 and support about 31.20 to 31.30. A breakout of this range is required before having confidence in a trend. An upwards breakout should have support from volume for confidence. A downwards breakout does not require volume for support. A weak bullish signal from On Balance Volume suggests an upwards breakout may come soon.

Published @ 06:37 p.m. EST.

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