Today this analysis tentatively suggests a blow off top may be over. A channel and Fibonacci ratios are used to indicate where support may currently be found.

Summary: The target at 1,984 for a third wave to end may not be met. Intermediate wave (3) may be over. A new low below 1,911.71 is required for confidence in this view. 

If price continues higher, then the first target would be at 1,984 and the next target would be at 2,175. The next longer-term target is at 2,306 or 2,250.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

Monthly charts were last updated here.

MAIN ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

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The bigger picture for this main bearish Elliott wave count sees Gold as still within a bear market, in a three steps back pattern that is labelled Grand Super Cycle wave IV on monthly charts.

Super Cycle wave (b) within Grand Super Cycle wave IV may be an incomplete double zigzag. When Super Cycle wave (b) may be complete, then this wave count expects Super Cycle wave (c) to begin and to move price below the end of Super Cycle wave (a) at 1,046.27.

The first zigzag in the double is labelled cycle wave w. The double is joined by a three in the opposite direction, a combination labelled cycle wave x. The second zigzag in the double is labelled cycle wave y.

The purpose of the second zigzag in a double is to deepen the correction. Cycle wave y has achieved this purpose.

Primary wave C within cycle wave y may be subdividing as an impulse. Intermediate waves (1) through to (3) within primary wave C may be complete. Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 1,764.12.

We should always assume the trend remains the same until proven otherwise. At this stage, Gold is in a bull market for the mid term.

MAIN DAILY CHART

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The daily chart shows detail of primary wave C as an incomplete impulse.

Intermediate waves (1) through to (3) within primary wave C may be complete.

Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 1,764.12.

Redraw the channel now using Elliott’s first technique: draw a first trend line from the ends of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy on the end of intermediate wave (2). Intermediate wave (4) may find support about the lower edge. 

If price keeps rising, then at 1,984 intermediate wave (3) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1).

If price reaches the first target and either the structure is incomplete or price keeps rising through it, then the second higher target at 2,175 would be used, which is where intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

HOURLY CHART

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Intermediate wave (2) subdivided as a double zigzag, lasting 14 sessions. Intermediate wave (4) may exhibit alternation as any one of a combination, flat or triangle. It may be over more quickly than 14 sessions; it may be over within two weeks.

Intermediate wave (4) (within all of a combination, flat or triangle) may see minor wave B or X move beyond the start of minor wave A or W at 1,977.40. There is no short-term upper invalidation point for this reason. A new high above 1,977.40 may still be part of intermediate wave (4) and does not necessarily mean that intermediate wave (3) must be continuing higher.

Focus over the next two weeks should not be on identifying which structure intermediate wave (4) may be unfolding as, but on identifying when a corrective structure may be complete and an upwards breakout may then be expected.

ALTERNATE BULLISH ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

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This wave count sees the the bear market complete at the last major low for Gold on 3 December 2015.

If Gold is in a new bull market, then it should begin with a five wave structure upwards on the weekly chart.

Cycle wave I fits as a five wave impulse with reasonably proportionate corrections for primary waves 2 and 4.

Cycle wave II fits as a double flat. However, within the first flat correction labelled primary wave W, this wave count needs to ignore what looks like an obvious triangle from July to September 2016 (this can be seen labelled as a triangle on the bear wave count above). This movement must be labelled as a series of overlapping first and second waves. Ignoring this triangle reduces the probability of this wave count in Elliott wave terms.

Within the first flat correction labelled primary wave W of the double flat of cycle wave II, intermediate wave (B) is 1.69 the length of intermediate wave (A). This is longer than the common range of up to 1.38, but within an allowable guideline of up to 2. The length of intermediate wave (B) reduces the probability of this wave count.

Cycle wave III may be incomplete. Cycle wave IV may not move into cycle wave I price territory below 1,303.51.

DAILY CHART

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Cycle wave III may be continuing higher. The daily chart focusses on the end of primary wave 5 within cycle wave III.

Draw a channel about intermediate wave (3) using Elliott’s first technique: draw the first trend line from the ends of minor waves 1 to 3, then place a  parallel copy on the end of minor wave 2. Minor wave 4 may find support about the lower edge of the channel.

Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 1,701.61.

HOURLY CHART

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Minor wave 2 subdivided as a double zigzag lasting 14 sessions. The guideline of alternation expects minor wave 4 to most likely subdivide as a flat, combination or triangle. Minor wave 4 may not be as long lasting as minor wave 2, as for Gold fourth waves tend to be quicker than counterpart second waves.

Minute wave b or x (within an expanded flat, running triangle or combination) may make a new price extreme beyond the start of minute wave a or w at 1,976.81. There is no upper short-term invalidation point for this reason.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

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An upwards breakout has support from volume and a bullish signal from On Balance Volume.

ADX remains extreme. RSI is not yet extreme, but it does still exhibit bearish divergence (sometimes this may simply disappear). There is room for this trend to continue.

DAILY CHART

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A red daily candlestick while RSI is reasonably deeply overbought may be taken as a weak bearish signal. A blow off top may possibly be complete, although this view is tentative at this stage. A new short-term swing low below 1,911.71 would add confidence.

GDX WEEKLY CHART

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There is an upwards trend. ADX is not extreme. RSI has only just reached into overbought. There is room for the trend to continue.

GDX DAILY CHART

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A  high may be in place. The last gap is now an exhaustion gap. Look for support about 37.5.

Published @ 06:32 p.m. ET.

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New updates to this analysis are in bold.