A smaller range upwards day brings price just $5 below next resistance.

Today a daily chart will also be published for the alternate Elliott wave count.

Summary: The main wave count is bullish. The short-term target is at 1,952. The longer-term target is at 2,094.

An alternate Elliott wave count is considered, but it has a low probability. It expects upwards movement to continue here to at least 1,920.42 and likely well above this point. The invalidation point for this alternate wave count is at 2,070.48.

Grand SuperCycle analysis and last monthly charts are here.

MAIN ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

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This wave count sees the the bear market complete at the last major low for Gold on 3 December 2015.

If Gold is in a new bull market, then it should begin with a five wave structure upwards on the weekly chart.

Cycle wave I fits as a five wave impulse with reasonably proportionate corrections for primary waves 2 and 4.

Cycle wave II fits as a double flat. However, within the first flat correction labelled primary wave W, this wave count needs to ignore what looks like an obvious triangle from July to September 2016 (this can be seen labelled as a triangle on the second weekly chart on prior analysis here). This movement must be labelled as a series of overlapping first and second waves. Ignoring this triangle reduces the probability of this wave count in Elliott wave terms.

Cycle wave IV may be a complete triple zigzag.

If the third zigzag of primary wave Z continues lower, then cycle wave IV may not move into cycle wave I price territory below 1,303.51.

DAILY CHART

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Cycle wave IV may be a complete triple zigzag.

A target is calculated for cycle wave V.

Primary wave 1 within cycle wave V may be incomplete.

Within primary wave 1: Intermediate waves (1) and (2) may be complete, and within intermediate wave (3) minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 below 1,678.24.

Minor wave 1 may be an incomplete impulse.

HOURLY CHART

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Minor wave 1 may be incomplete.

Minute waves i and ii within minor wave 1 may be complete. Minute wave iii may be incomplete. Minute wave iii may only subdivide as an impulse. Minuette waves (i) through to (iv) within the impulse of minute wave iii may now be complete. Minuette wave (v) may be underway.

Today the degree of labelling within the last wave up is moved down one degree; if the target is reasonable, then within minuette wave (v) only subminuette wave i may now be complete at the last high. Subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i below 1,809.85.

The target for minute wave iii remains the same. When minute wave iii is complete, then a sideways correction for minute wave iv may last about a week.

ALTERNATE ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

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The bigger picture for this alternate Elliott wave count sees Gold as still within a bear market, in a three steps back pattern that is labelled Grand Super Cycle wave IV on monthly charts. Grand Super Cycle wave IV may be subdividing as an expanded flat pattern.

Super Cycle wave (b) within Grand Super Cycle wave IV may be a complete double zigzag. This wave count expects Super Cycle wave (c) to move price below the end of Super Cycle wave (a) at 1,046.27 to avoid a truncation and a very rare running flat. The target calculated expects a common Fibonacci ratio for Super Cycle wave (c).

Super Cycle wave (c) may have begun with a leading expanding diagonal for primary wave 1. Leading expanding diagonals in first wave positions are uncommon, so the probability of this wave count is low. However, it has a good fit and must be considered.

Second wave corrections to follow leading diagonals in first wave positions are usually very deep. Primary wave 2 may be expected to end at least about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio at 1,920.42, and more likely a reasonable amount deeper than that. Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 above 2,070.78.

DAILY CHART

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In response to a query from a member, a daily chart will be published for this alternate wave count so that subdivisions within intermediate wave (C) of primary wave 2 may be counted.

Intermediate wave (C) may be subdividing as an impulse. Minor wave 4 within intermediate wave (C) may not move into minor wave 1 price territory below 1,756.92.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

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Price has closed above prior resistance at 1,800 with strong support from volume. The +DX line has crossed above the -DX line, indicating a potential trend change to upwards, but with ADX declining no clear trend is indicated.

Volume last week shows a further increase, which supports the main Elliott wave count.

DAILY CHART

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Price has consolidated just below resistance and now closed above resistance at 1,850, which may now offer support. The upwards trend continues. Next resistance is about 1,880. Today price is just $5 short of this resistance area and looks to be slowing down; another consolidation may form here. If price breaks above resistance at 1,880, then next resistance above that is about 1,940.

The trend is now extreme and RSI is oversold. However, when Gold has a strong trend, these indicators may reach very extreme while price travels a considerable distance.

GDX WEEKLY CHART

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Next resistance is at 45.55.

Last week may have completed a Hanging Man bearish candlestick pattern, but the bullish implications of the long lower wick mean it requires confirmation with the following candlestick bearish.

GDX DAILY CHART

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The trend is up. Next strong resistance is about 45.55.

After particularly strong days like this one, price often (not always) reacts quickly in the opposite direction to relieve pressure before the trend continues. A small red candlestick today fits expectations for a pullback or consolidation to begin about here. The long lower wick is bullish.

Published @ 07:34 p.m. ET.

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1. Always trade with stops.

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New updates to this analysis are in bold.