All three Elliott wave counts remain valid. Volume still strongly supports the main Elliott wave count.
Summary: Overall, expect downwards movement as most likely to continue. The next target is at 15.385.
If the current small bounce continues higher, then it should not move above 17.606.
ELLIOTT WAVE COUNTS
Last updated monthly charts may be found here.
BEARISH WAVE COUNT
WEEKLY CHART
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Super Cycle wave (b) may be a complete double zigzag.
The first zigzag in the double is labelled cycle wave w. The double is joined by a three in the opposite direction, a zigzag labelled cycle wave x that is atypically very deep.
The second zigzag in the double is labelled cycle wave y. Cycle wave y has failed by a very wide margin to achieve its purpose of deepening the correction, nor has cycle wave y managed to move beyond the end of cycle wave w. This is not technically a truncation (truncations refer only to C and fifth waves), but the effect is the same.
This wave count has strong support from classic analysis. That is the only reason why it is a main wave count despite the problems in terms of Elliott wave structure.
Super Cycle wave (c) should move beyond the end of Super Cycle wave (a) below 14.063 to avoid a truncation. Super Cycle wave (c) must subdivide as a five wave structure.
Within intermediate wave (3), no second wave correction may move beyond its start above 18.702.
DAILY CHART
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Within the new downwards trend, primary wave 1 may be incomplete.
Within primary wave 1, intermediate waves (1) and (2) may be complete. Intermediate wave (3) may have begun.
Within intermediate wave (3), minor waves 1 and 2 may be complete. Within minor wave 3, minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory above 17.606.
Look out for the possibility that one or both of minute wave v and minor wave 5 may end with very strong downwards movements. Silver, typical of commodities, exhibits swift strong fifth waves. This tendency is especially prevalent in its fifth waves to end third wave impulses one degree higher.
ALTERNATE WEEKLY CHART
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Super Cycle wave (b) may be an incomplete regular flat correction.
Within the regular flat correction, cycle wave a subdivides well as a zigzag and cycle wave b subdivides well as a zigzag, which is a 0.96 correction of cycle wave a.
Cycle wave c must complete as a five wave structure. Within cycle wave c, primary waves 1 through to 4 may be complete. If it continues any further, then primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory below 16.195.
Regular flat corrections often fit within parallel channels. Cycle wave c may end about resistance at the upper edge of the channel. The most common Fibonacci Ratio for cycle wave c within a regular flat would be equality in length with cycle wave a.
It would be extremely likely, for this wave count, for cycle wave c to move at least slightly above the end of cycle wave a at 21.062 to avoid a truncation.
Within cycle wave c, primary waves 1 and 3 both lasted 14 weeks, one longer than a Fibonacci 13. Primary wave 5 may last a total Fibonacci 8 or 13 weeks.
ALTERNATE DAILY CHART
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Cycle wave C may be subdividing as an impulse. Within the impulse, primary waves 1 to 4 may be complete. Primary wave 4 may have continued lower this week as a double zigzag.
If it continues any further, then primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory below 16.195.
Primary wave 2 lasted 69 sessions and subdivided as a deep 0.82 double zigzag. If it is complete as labelled, then primary wave 4 may have exhibited almost no alternation as a double zigzag and more shallow at 0.56 of primary wave 3.
Primary wave 4 would still be more brief than primary wave 2; fourth waves for Silver tend to be more brief than counterpart second waves.
Primary wave 5 must subdivide as a five wave structure.
BULLISH WAVE COUNT
WEEKLY CHART
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This bullish Elliott wave count sees a new bull market beginning for Silver at the low in December 2015.
A new bull market should begin with a five wave structure upwards. This is labelled cycle wave I.
Following five steps forward should be three steps back. This is labelled cycle wave II. The Elliott wave corrective structure of cycle wave II is labelled as a double zigzag, which is a fairly common structure.
Cycle wave III may only subdivide as an impulse. Within cycle wave III, only primary wave 1 may be unfolding. Within primary wave 1, intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 16.195.
The target for primary wave 1 to end is this week recalculated.
Cycle wave III must move beyond the end of cycle wave I above 21.062. Cycle wave III must move far enough above this point to allow room for cycle wave IV to unfold and remain above cycle wave I price territory.
DAILY CHART
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Both this bullish Elliott wave count and the bearish alternate Elliott wave count now expect a fourth wave has completed. The targets for the next upwards movement are different.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
WEEKLY CHART
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Silver is back within a strong area of resistance and support, identified by blue shaded areas.
This week completes a downwards week with a lower low and a lower high, but the candlestick has closed green and the Balance of Volume is upwards. Upwards movement within the week does not appear to have support from volume, but a clearer picture may come by looking at daily volume bars.
There is bearish divergence for On Balance Volume between last major lows and last major highs. On Balance Volume has not confirmed new highs for Silver, but has made a lower high for the early September swing high.
DAILY CHART
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Overall, this chart is bearish and supports the Elliott wave count. A new downwards trend may still be in its relatively early stages.
Published @ 10:31 p.m. EST.
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New updates to this analysis are in bold.
In my opinion the alternate looks better. I’m not in favor of a “truncated” DZZ. 🧐
Me too. I think 2 of 5 with the alternate count completed last night. If so wave 3 up to start now.
Oh yeah!!!!!
Morning from Huntsville al. You too may end up here one day. Just curious Lara, is it possible that the current move down in silver is possibly a 2 of 3 up. Perhaps wave 3 will be extended. The commercials are positioning themselves for a move up but I’m afraid with the large short position in gold that silver will get dragged down below the 16.19 invalidation point.
Also it looks like this C move down could still move a little further down…perhaps to 16.3, 16.5 range without invalidating. If gold moves down to the 1390 to 1430 range at the same time this might offer us a clue that silver will hold. In either case I think we need to see the gold commercials close their shorts and go long more convincingly, but they have started so that is somewhat encouraging for the Bulls. Unfortunately the commercials are still net short over 250k contracts so I don’t think we reached a bottom yet.
Perhaps it will be a quick bottom with the announcement of a China trade deal confirmed. Commercials have been holding short positions for a while and i’m sure they are ancy to cover. Personally I think the whole Issue of tariffs being lifted being negative for gold is a made up story to help hold down gold but the public is buying the story. Perhaps a big commercial bank short gold is funding this on fake news. When this resolves itself I believe the dollar will weaken against the yuan and gold will take off shortly thereafter. Sell the rumor buy the news.
It’s possible, but it doesn’t look very likely.
If I get your meaning correctly, the degree of labelling within intermediate (3) could be moved down one, and minor 1 could be over at the last high and the current pullback could be minor 2. The invalidation point for that idea would be at 14.288.
Yes. Thanks