An inside day leaves the Elliott wave counts the same. Volume analysis still supports the main Elliott wave count.

Summary: Expect continuing downwards movement to at least 1,362.

Further confidence in a downwards trend may be had if price makes a new low below 1,548.43.

A new high above 1,764.12 would indicate an upwards breakout. The target would then again be at 1,980.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

Monthly charts were last updated here.

MAIN BEARISH ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

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The bigger picture for this main bearish Elliott wave count sees Gold as still within a bear market, in a three steps back pattern that is labelled Grand Super Cycle wave IV on monthly charts.

Super Cycle wave (b) within Grand Super Cycle wave IV may be a complete double zigzag.

The first zigzag in the double is labelled cycle wave w. The double is joined by a three in the opposite direction, a combination labelled cycle wave x. The second zigzag in the double is labelled cycle wave y.

The purpose of the second zigzag in a double is to deepen the correction. Cycle wave y has achieved this purpose.

DAILY CHART

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Primary wave C within cycle wave y may be a complete five wave impulse.

The point in time at which an Elliott wave triangle’s trend lines cross over is sometimes when a trend change occurs. That has not occurred in this instance, so the trend line extension is removed.

A new low below 1,693.39 has added initial confidence to this wave count. A new low below 1,548.43 would invalidate a new more bullish alternate wave count (see below), so it would add further confidence to this main wave count.

When primary wave 1 is complete within the new downwards trend, then primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 above 1,764.12.

HOURLY CHART

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Intermediate wave (2) may have continued very slightly higher as a triple zigzag.

Intermediate wave (3) may only subdivide as an impulse. Minor wave 1 within the impulse may be complete.

Minor wave 2 may be a complete single zigzag. The upwards sloping Elliott channel is slightly overshot by the end of minor wave 2, which has reached up to just below the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1. 

If it continues higher as a double zigzag, then minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 1,743.83.

ALTERNATE DAILY CHART

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It remains possible that primary wave C may be an incomplete five wave impulse.

Within the impulse: intermediate waves (1) through to (3) may be complete and intermediate wave (4) may be over at the last low, or it may continue lower. Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 1,548.43.

An Elliott channel is drawn about primary wave C. Primary wave C does not fit well within this channel, which slightly reduces the probability of this wave count.

ALTERNATE BULLISH ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

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This wave count sees the the bear market complete at the last major low for Gold on 3 December 2015.

If Gold is in a new bull market, then it should begin with a five wave structure upwards on the weekly chart.

Cycle wave I fits as a five wave impulse with reasonably proportionate corrections for primary waves 2 and 4.

Cycle wave II fits as a double flat. However, within the first flat correction labelled primary wave W, this wave count needs to ignore what looks like an obvious triangle from July to September 2016 (this can be seen labelled as a triangle on the bear wave count above). This movement must be labelled as a series of overlapping first and second waves. Ignoring this triangle reduces the probability of this wave count in Elliott wave terms.

Within the first flat correction labelled primary wave W of the double flat of cycle wave II, intermediate wave (B) is 1.69 the length of intermediate wave (A). This is longer than the common range of up to 1.38, but within an allowable guideline of up to 2. The length of intermediate wave (B) reduces the probability of this wave count.

Cycle wave III may be complete. Cycle wave IV may not move into cycle wave I price territory below 1,303.51.

DAILY CHART

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Cycle wave IV may be an incomplete expanded flat correction. Primary wave A within the flat correction may have subdivided as a zigzag. Primary wave B may now be a complete zigzag. Primary wave B would be a 1.25 length of primary wave A. This is within the normal range for primary wave B within a flat from 1 to 1.38 times the length of primary wave A.

A target is calculated for primary wave C to end based upon the most common Fibonacci ratio to primary wave A within an expanded flat. Primary wave C must subdivide as a five wave motive structure.

It is still also possible that primary wave B could continue higher as a double zigzag. The common range of primary wave B would extend up to 1.38 times the length of primary wave A at 1,795.98. A maximum allowable guideline for primary wave B would be up to 2 times the length of primary wave A at 1,949.96. There is no Elliott wave rule stating a limit for B waves within expanded flat corrections, so there is no rule which may be used to determine an upper invalidation point for this wave count.

HOURLY CHART

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Primary wave C must subdivide as a five wave motive structure, either an impulse or an ending diagonal. An impulse is more common, so that is what shall be expected.

Minor wave 1 within the new downwards trend may be complete. Minor wave 2 may have continued very slightly higher as a triple zigzag.

Minute wave ii within minor wave 3 may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 1,743.83.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

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The upwards trend remains extreme. RSI is not yet overbought; there is room for an upwards trend to continue.

DAILY CHART

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A close below the upper triangle trend line after a breakout that did not have good support from volume suggests a target calculated from the triangle may not be met. With a bearish reversal pattern having support from volume, the risk that price has changed trend here is high.

The short-term volume profile remains bearish. There is strong support here about 1,680.

GDX WEEKLY CHART

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Dark Cloud Cover is a bearish candlestick reversal pattern, but not the strongest reversal pattern (which are Engulfing patterns). With this pattern now followed by a candlestick with a bullish long lower wick, the trend change indicated by Dark Cloud Cover may have been brief.

GDX DAILY CHART

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The prior upwards trend reached extreme, but not very extreme. The last gap is closed, but a new swing low below 31.31 has not yet been seen. There is risk here that GDX may have seen a trend change from up to either down or a multi-week sideways consolidation.

Published @ 05:23 p.m. EST.

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New updates to this analysis are in bold.