Further upwards movement comes with declining volume, which supports the main Elliott wave count.

Summary: For the short term, upwards movement may end about 1,752 and thereafter downwards movement to at least 1,362 may begin.

Further confidence in a downwards trend may be had if price makes a new low below 1,548.43.

A new high above 1,764.12 would indicate an upwards breakout. The target would then again be at 1,980.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

Monthly charts were last updated here.

MAIN BEARISH ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

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The bigger picture for this main bearish Elliott wave count sees Gold as still within a bear market, in a three steps back pattern that is labelled Grand Super Cycle wave IV on monthly charts.

Super Cycle wave (b) within Grand Super Cycle wave IV may be a complete double zigzag.

The first zigzag in the double is labelled cycle wave w. The double is joined by a three in the opposite direction, a combination labelled cycle wave x. The second zigzag in the double is labelled cycle wave y.

The purpose of the second zigzag in a double is to deepen the correction. Cycle wave y has achieved this purpose.

Super Cycle wave (c) downwards may continue to complete the larger (a)-(b)-(c) correction for Grand Super Cycle wave IV. Super Cycle wave (c) would be very likely to move below the end of Super Cycle wave (a) at 1,046.27 to avoid a truncation. When the bullish alternate wave count is invalidated, then a final target may be calculated for Super Cycle wave (c).

DAILY CHART

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Primary wave C within cycle wave y may be a complete five wave impulse.

A new low below 1,693.39 has added initial confidence to this wave count. A new low below 1,548.43 would invalidate a new more bullish alternate wave count (see below), so it would add further confidence to this main wave count.

When primary wave 1 is complete within the new downwards trend, then primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 above 1,764.12.

Intermediate wave (2) may be continuing further as an expanded flat correction. It may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) above 1,764.12.

HOURLY CHART

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Intermediate wave (2) may be continuing further as an expanded flat correction.

Expanded flat corrections are reasonably common structures. The most common range for minor wave B within an expanded flat would be from 1 to 1.38 times the length of minor wave A, and the allowable maximum guideline is up to 2 times the length of minor wave A. Minor wave B at 1.44 times the length of minor wave A is a little beyond the maximum common length but well within the allowable guideline.

The target calculated uses the most common Fibonacci ratio for minor wave C to minor wave A.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) above 1,764.12. This is the final invalidation point for this wave count. If this invalidation point is breached, then the alternate daily wave count below should be used.

It is normal for Gold for the first second wave correction in a new trend to be fairly deep.

Expanded flat corrections do not fit into trend channels. A channel should be used about minor wave C to indicate when upwards movement is over. When this best fit channel is breached by downwards movement, then that may be used to indicate a trend change.

ALTERNATE DAILY CHART

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It remains possible that primary wave C may be an incomplete five wave impulse.

Within the impulse: intermediate waves (1) through to (3) may be complete and intermediate wave (4) may have continued lower as a double zigzag. Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 1,548.43.

An Elliott channel is drawn about primary wave C. Primary wave C does not fit well within this channel, which slightly reduces the probability of this wave count.

ALTERNATE BULLISH ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

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This wave count sees the the bear market complete at the last major low for Gold on 3 December 2015.

If Gold is in a new bull market, then it should begin with a five wave structure upwards on the weekly chart.

Cycle wave I fits as a five wave impulse with reasonably proportionate corrections for primary waves 2 and 4.

Cycle wave II fits as a double flat. However, within the first flat correction labelled primary wave W, this wave count needs to ignore what looks like an obvious triangle from July to September 2016 (this can be seen labelled as a triangle on the bear wave count above). This movement must be labelled as a series of overlapping first and second waves. Ignoring this triangle reduces the probability of this wave count in Elliott wave terms.

Within the first flat correction labelled primary wave W of the double flat of cycle wave II, intermediate wave (B) is 1.69 the length of intermediate wave (A). This is longer than the common range of up to 1.38, but within an allowable guideline of up to 2. The length of intermediate wave (B) reduces the probability of this wave count.

Cycle wave III may be complete. Cycle wave IV may not move into cycle wave I price territory below 1,303.51.

DAILY CHART

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Cycle wave IV may be an incomplete expanded flat correction. Primary wave A within the flat correction may have subdivided as a zigzag. Primary wave B may now be a complete zigzag. Primary wave B would be a 1.25 length of primary wave A. This is within the normal range for primary wave B within a flat from 1 to 1.38 times the length of primary wave A.

A target is calculated for primary wave C to end based upon the most common Fibonacci ratio to primary wave A within an expanded flat. Primary wave C must subdivide as a five wave motive structure.

It is still also possible that primary wave B could continue higher as a double zigzag. The common range of primary wave B would extend up to 1.38 times the length of primary wave A at 1,795.98. A maximum allowable guideline for primary wave B would be up to 2 times the length of primary wave A at 1,949.96. There is no Elliott wave rule stating a limit for B waves within expanded flat corrections, so there is no rule which may be used to determine an upper invalidation point for this wave count.

HOURLY CHART

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Minor wave 2 may be continuing higher as an expanded flat correction. Subdivisions, targets and invalidation points are the same for both hourly charts today.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

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Price remains within a consolidation with support about 1,665 to 1,680. Downwards movement dominated last week but has not managed to close below support. A push from volume for downwards movement last week suggests a downwards breakout may come soon.

DAILY CHART

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With a bearish reversal pattern having support from volume on the 18th of May, the risk that price has changed trend here is high.

A little more upwards movement was expected for the short term. A decline in volume today suggests it may be over here or very soon. Price remains range bound with support about 1,665 to 1,675 and resistance about 1,765 to 1,790. The short-term volume profile remains bearish, suggesting a downwards breakout may be more likely.

GDX WEEKLY CHART

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Dark Cloud Cover is a bearish candlestick reversal pattern, but not the strongest reversal pattern (which are Engulfing patterns).

Some push last week from volume with downwards movement suggests more downwards movement ahead.

GDX DAILY CHART

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The prior upwards trend reached extreme, but not very extreme. The last gap is closed, and a new swing low below 31.31 has now been seen. The evidence that GDX may have seen a trend change is now mounting.

Some support today from volume for upwards movement and a close at the high for the session suggest more upwards movement immediately ahead, at least short term.

Published @ 06:06 p.m. EST.

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New updates to this analysis are in bold.