Bitcoin has recently seen strong upwards movement along with increasing news coverage. A blowoff top may again be approaching. Will this herald just another interruption to Bitcoin’s upwards trend? Or could it be the end of this meteoric rise and the beginning of a larger fall?
All charts are on a semi-log scale.
The data for this wave count begins from June 2010.
What looks like a five wave impulse may be completing. With no Fibonacci ratio between cycle waves III and I, it may be more likely that cycle wave V will exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to either of III or I.
This movement does not fit well at all into a channel.
I have taken some time to look at the waves which now in hindsight are obviously complete, particularly the waves within cycle wave III. I have noticed some tendencies of this market:
– Bitcoin behaves like an extreme commodity. Its impulses have a curved look with slower second waves, quick fourth waves, and strong sharp fifth wave extensions. This tendency shows up in bullish and bearish waves.
– Third waves are much longer than first waves, and fifth waves are longer still. Again, this is an extreme version of typical commodity behaviour.
– The middle of its third waves may exhibit Fibonacci ratios within them, but overall it does not regularly exhibit good Fibonacci ratios. This would make target calculation particularly difficult.
– Candlestick reversal patterns are common at the end of Bitcoin’s strong fifth waves. These are engulfing patterns or star patterns with very long wicks on the final candlestick.
– Early second wave corrections are extremely deep, close to 0.8 and often deeper than 0.9 the depth of the prior first wave.
The weekly chart looks at the possible structure of cycle wave V, the final fifth wave.
There are multiple ways to label this upwards movement. This is only one.
This daily chart looks at the final fifth wave of primary wave 5. Again, there are multiple ways to label this movement and this is only one of them.
What cannot yet be seen is a candlestick reversal pattern at the high.
A target is calculated at two degrees, which is a zone of only 32 bits. While this target looks reasonable, it must be acknowledged that given observed behaviour of this market it may well be too low if it is wrong.
The bigger picture expects that Bitcoin may soon end its meteoric rise and turn to begin a very sharp and deep fall. When cycle wave V ends, it would complete one impulse up. Given this market’s tendency to very deep early second wave corrections, the resulting fall may be as deep as 0.9 of the prior rise.
I will be following this market daily now to pinpoint when may be best to sell Bitcoins.
Thereafter, I will follow the big second wave correction to its completion in order to pinpoint when will be the best time to buy Bitcoins again.
This analysis is published @ 07:16 p.m. EST.
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