Tag Archives: elliott wave silver 2013

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 12th November, 2013

Last analysis of Silver expected more downwards movement which is exactly what has happened. The target was 21.158. So far price has reached down to 20.588, 0.57 below the target.

I have a new alternate for you this week. I have continued looking and finally have found an alternate which has a reasonable probability.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Intermediate wave (B) is unfolding as a simple zigzag. Minor wave A subdivides as a five, and minor wave B is now a complete “three” (a double zigzag).

At 27.417 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A. Minor wave A lasted 43 days, and minor wave B lasted a Fibonacci 34 days. I would expect minor wave C to last between 34 and 43 days, or thereabouts.

The parallel channel drawn here is Elliott’s technique for a correction. Draw the first trend line from the start of minor wave A to the end of minor wave B, then place a parallel copy upon the end of minor wave A. I will expect minor wave C to find resistance at the upper edge of this channel, and it is most likely to end there.

Within minor wave C minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 20.512.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart 2 Hourly 2013

The key to this wave count and the reason why I judge it to have a higher probability is the triangle labeled minuette wave (b). This structure looks so typically like a contracting triangle. It subdivides nicely into a series of zigzags, with the b wave longer lasting and having deeper retracements on the five minute chart.

If this structure is a triangle then it is either a B wave or a fourth wave. It cannot fit as a fourth wave so it may be a B wave.

Within minute wave ii zigzag minuette waves (a) and (b) may be complete. Minuette wave (c) may be very close to completion, only the last fifth wave downwards needs to complete.

If price moves above 21.598 in the next few days then I would have confidence in this wave count. At that stage I would expect overall upwards movement for about another 23 days from today’s date. At 24.756 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 20.512.

Alternate Wave Count.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Daily Alternate 2013

My first alternate included a rare running flat. I discarded it due to a low probability.

This idea has a better fit. It is possible that minor wave B is an incomplete zigzag.

Within minor wave B minute wave a subdivides nicely as a leading expanding diagonal. Within the leading diagonal all the subwaves are zigzags except the third wave which is an impulse. For this piece of movement this structure has the best fit.

Minute wave b is labeled as an expanded flat correction. Within it minuette waves (a) and (b) both subdivide as three wave zigzags, and minuette wave (b) is a 106% correction of minuette wave (a). There is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (a) and (c).

Minuette wave (c) is an incomplete impulse. At 18.591 minute wave c would reach equality in length with minute wave a.

If this wave count is confirmed with movement below 20.512 then I would add to the target calculation for minute wave c when there is enough structure within it to use minuette wave degree, so this target may change or widen to a small zone.

Minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 18.215.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart 2 Hourly Alternate 2013

Although this wave count has a very good fit on the daily chart it does not have as nice a fit on the 2 hourly or five minute charts.

This wave count cannot see a triangle where the main wave count sees it’s minuette wave (b). This alternate must see this piece of movement as a series of overlapping first and second waves. Although this is very common it seems to be a stretch, and it seems to be ignoring what looks like an obvious triangle. However, on the five minute chart it does fit, although there is at least a running flat in there for a second wave.

For this alternate there is so far a slight increase in downwards momentum for the possible third wave of this impulse. This does fit, but the increase is not convincing. If downwards momentum increases further in momentum then this wave count would increase in probability.

Within this alternate wave count there are three more fourth wave corrections which should unfold during the next few days or so. The last of them, minuette wave (iv), may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory. This alternate wave count is invalidated with movement above 21.598.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th October, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected more upwards movement towards a target at 23.170 before some downwards movement for a correction. Price has moved higher to reach up to 23.088, just 0.08 short of the target.

The wave count remains the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Intermediate wave (B) is unfolding as a simple zigzag. Minor wave A subdivides as a five, and minor wave B is now a complete “three” (a double zigzag).

At 27.417 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A. Minor wave A lasted 43 days, and minor wave B lasted a Fibonacci 34 days. I would expect minor wave C to last between 34 and 43 days, or thereabouts.

The parallel channel drawn here is Elliott’s technique for a correction. Draw the first trend line from the start of minor wave A to the end of minor wave B, then place a parallel copy upon the end of minor wave A. I will expect minor wave C to find resistance at the upper edge of this channel, and it is most likely to end there.

Within minor wave C minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 20.512.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

This hourly chart shows all of minute wave i.

Ratios within minute wave i are: minuette wave (iii) is 0.145 longer than 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is just 0.023 longer than 0.382 the length of minuette wave (iii).

Within minute wave i there is good alternation between minuette waves (ii) and (iv): minuette wave (ii) was a shallow 41% flat correction, and minuette wave (iv) was a very shallow 28% contracting triangle.

A parallel channel drawn about the impulse of minute wave i using Elliott’s second technique is now clearly breached by downwards movement. This indicates that minute wave i should be over and minute wave ii should now be underway.

Minute wave ii may end about the 0.382 or 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i, with the lower 0.618 Fibonacci ratio at 21.496 being more likely.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

This hourly chart shows most recent movement of minute wave ii in more detail.

So far to the downside I expect that minuette wave (a) is unfolding as an impulse. This suggests minute wave ii may be a zigzag. However, at this early stage in the correction there are still several structural possibilities for minute wave ii.

If minute wave ii unfolds as a zigzag then within it minuette wave (b) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a) above 23.088.

Overall for the next one to three days for Silver I would expect choppy, overlapping movement to end about either 22.104 or 21.496, favouring the lower target. When this correction is done I would expect upwards movement above 23.088 to new highs with an increase in upwards momentum as a third wave unfolds. This may begin before next analysis.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 20.512.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd October, 2013

Last analysis for silver expected some more downwards movement towards a target at 20.326 before a minor degree trend change.

Price did move lower to 20.512, 0.186 short of the target, and has now clearly turned back upwards.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Intermediate wave (B) is unfolding as a simple zigzag. Minor wave A subdivides as a five, and minor wave B is now a complete “three” (a double zigzag).

At 27.417 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A. Minor wave A lasted 43 days, and minor wave B lasted a Fibonacci 34 days. I would expect minor wave C to last between 34 and 43 days, or thereabouts.

The parallel channel drawn here is Elliott’s technique for a correction. Draw the first trend line from the start of minor wave A to the end of minor wave B, then place a parallel copy upon the end of minor wave A. I will expect minor wave C to find resistance at the upper edge of this channel, and it is most likely to end there.

Within minor wave C no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 20.512.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

So far to the upside I expect that there is not quite a completed five wave impulse. The final fifth wave needs to complete.

Within minute wave i minuette wave (iii) is just 0.061 longer than equality with minuette wave (i).

Within minuette wave (v) subminuette wave iii is just 0.07 longer than 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i.

At 23.170 subminuette wave v within minuette wave (v) would reach equality in length with subminuette wave i.

When this fifth wave completes then I will expect a second wave correction for minute wave ii. This should show up on the daily chart as at least one red candlestick, maybe two. It may be deep, and the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of a completed minute wave i would be the most likely target for it to end.

I have drawn a best fit parallel channel about this upwards movement. When this channel is very clearly breached by downwards movement then I would expect that minute wave ii may have begun.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 20.512.

Silver Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 8th October, 2013

Last analysis was invalidated with movement above 22.139. The wave count has necessarily changed.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Silver daily 2013

A downwards zigzag is unfolding at primary wave degree. Within the zigzag intermediate wave (A) is complete. Intermediate wave (B) is an incomplete zigzag.

Minor wave B is an incomplete double zigzag. Within the second zigzag minuette wave (c) is incomplete.

Minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 18.215.

Silver hourly 2013

Upwards movement was minuette wave (b) extending higher. At this stage it is not confirmed as complete. I want to see a clear channel breach and movement below 22.114 before I have confidence in a trend change. At that stage I will calculate a downwards target for minuette wave (c).

Minuette wave (b) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a) within this zigzag. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 23.417.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4th October, 2013

Movement below 21.216 invalidated last week’s wave count. Minor wave B is continuing lower as a double zigzag.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

A downwards zigzag is unfolding at primary wave degree. Within the zigzag intermediate wave (A) is complete. Intermediate wave (B) is an incomplete zigzag.

Minor wave B is an incomplete double zigzag. Within the second zigzag minuette wave (c) is incomplete.

Minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 18.215.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Within minuette wave (c) so far there is a zigzag downwards, followed by a zigzag upwards which did not make a new high. This may be an ending diagonal unfolding.

Within an ending diagonal all the sub waves must subdivide as zigzags. The third wave must move beyond the end of the first, so subminuette wave iii must make a new low below 20.623.

If subminuette wave c has begun then within it micro wave A and now B are most likely complete. Micro wave B subdivides as a contracting triangle.

At 20.529 micro wave C would reach 2.618 the length of micro wave A.

If subminuette wave ii continues further it may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 22.139.

Silver Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th September, 2013

Last analysis expected upwards movement for Silver. The target was 26.09.

Price moved upwards and was 2.673 short of the target. It made a new high, then turned lower, and has been moving sideways for four days.

Downwards movement looks like a typically deep second wave correction. Price remains above the invalidation point on the hourly chart.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Silver daily 2013

A downwards zigzag is unfolding at primary wave degree. Within the zigzag intermediate wave (A) is complete. Intermediate wave (B) is an incomplete zigzag.

Within minor wave B the structure may be an almost complete zigzag, or this may only be minute wave a of a flat or double for minor wave B.

At 28.121 minor wave C would reach equality with minor wave A.

Within minor wave C no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 21.216.

Silver hourly 2013

Sideways movement for the last four days looks like a combination or double flat unfolding. It would be incomplete; one more final small wave down should complete it.

At this stage the combination looks like a double. When this second structure labeled subminuette wave y is completed the probability that the correction is complete will be extremely high. The only way it could continue would be as a very rare triple.

At 24.55 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i. This target should be about 5 to 8 days away.

Minuette wave (ii) within minute wave iii may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement below 21.291.