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GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 3rd September, 2014

While the alternate Elliott wave count was not technically confirmed for GDX, it has been for Gold. I will follow Gold for indication of which wave count is most likely correct for GDX.

Click charts to enlarge.

GDX monthly 2013

The clearest piece of movement is the downwards movement from the high. This looks most like a first, second and third wave. This may be the start of a larger correction.

Intermediate wave (3) is $1.06 longer than 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Within intermediate wave (3) there are no Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

Ratios within minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $2.19 longer than 0.618 the length of minute wave i.

Ratios within minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $0.63 longer than 0.382 the length of minute wave iii.

I have played with how to best draw a channel about this downwards movement, which does not fit perfectly into a channel drawn using either of Elliott’s techniques but does fit best if his first technique is used: draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy on the high of intermediate wave (2).

GDX daily 2013

Intermediate wave (4) is most likely over with a very slightly truncated C wave (by 0.25).

If intermediate wave (5) has begun then within it a first and second wave are now very likely to be complete.

Minute wave ii is an expanded flat correction: within it minuette wave (b) is a 112% correction of minuette wave (a), and minuette wave (c) is just 0.08 short of 1.618 the length of minuette wave (a). Within minuette wave (b) subminuette wave b is also an expanded flat correction.

At 22.31 minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i.

I would have more confidence in this wave count with movement below 25.59. A new swing low below that point would indicate at least a mid term trend change to the downside.

At 11.22 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). This target is likely to be several weeks away.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th August, 2014

While the Elliott wave monthly chart looks fairly clear at this time, the Elliott wave daily chart is not. With GDX data I cannot look at subdivisions on any time frame below daily.

I have one monthly wave count and two daily charts for you this week.

Click charts to enlarge.

GDX monthly 2013

The clearest piece of movement is the downwards movement from the high. This looks most like a first, second and third wave. This may be the start of a larger correction.

Intermediate wave (3) is $1.06 longer than 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Within intermediate wave (3) there are no Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

Ratios within minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $2.19 longer than 0.618 the length of minute wave i.

Ratios within minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $0.63 longer than 0.382 the length of minute wave iii.

Draw a parallel channel about this downwards movement. Draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy upon the high of intermediate wave (2). Intermediate wave (4) found some resistance just above the upper edge of the channel.

Intermediate wave (4) may be over already, or it may continue further sideways or higher for another one to few weeks. Only movement below 21.93 would confirm that intermediate wave (4) is over and intermediate wave (5) is underway.

The two daily wave counts below are in no particular order. I am not confident that I know this market well enough at this stage (I only began analysing GDX in October 2013) to be able to judge how its structures normally look.

Daily Wave Count I.

GDX daily I 2013

At 29.72 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A.

This would see intermediate wave (4) move comfortably outside the parallel channel on the monthly chart, copied over here to the daily chart (black trend line). I do not know how common this is for GDX, but it is reasonably common for all markets for fourth waves to not be contained within a channel drawn using Elliott’s first technique.

Within minor wave C minute waves iii and v may be shorter than minute wave i.

This wave count would be confirmed with movement above 27.78.

This first wave count sees the upwards wave for minor wave A as a five wave impulse. I think this has a slightly better fit than seeing this movement as a three.

Within minute wave iii no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 25.59.

Daily Wave Count II.

GDX daily II 2013

Intermediate wave (4) may be over with a very slightly truncated C wave (by 0.25).

If intermediate wave (5) has begun then within it a first and second wave are now very likely to be complete.

Minute wave ii is an expanded flat correction: within it minuette wave (b) is a 112% correction of minuette wave (a), and minuette wave (c) is just 0.08 short of 1.618 the length of minuette wave (a). Within minuette wave (b) subminuette wave b is also an expanded flat correction.

At 22.31 minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i.

I would have confidence in this second wave count if the first wave count is invalidated with movement below 25.59.

At 11.22 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). This target is likely to be several weeks away.

If I was asked to pick a winner for GDX (which I don’t like to do) I would pick this second wave count. But the invalidation / confirmation points are now close by and it would be wiser to wait for one to be crossed.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 17th July, 2014

Downwards movement invalidated the alternate wave count and confirmed the main wave count.

The main wave count expects downwards movement from here to about 23.10 to 22.81 in about four weeks time. However, I have a new alternate to consider today which has an extremely good fit and resolves some problems I had with the main wave count. After further consideration I may swap these two over. I may let Gold lead here.

Click charts to enlarge.

Main Wave Count.

GDX monthly 2013

The clearest piece of movement is the downwards movement from the high. This looks most like a first, second and third wave. This may be the start of a larger correction.

Intermediate wave (3) is $1.06 longer than 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Within intermediate wave (3) there are no Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

Ratios within minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $2.19 longer than 0.618 the length of minute wave i.

Ratios within minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $0.63 longer than 0.382 the length of minute wave iii.

Draw a parallel channel about this downwards movement. Draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy upon the high of intermediate wave (2). Intermediate wave (4) to be finding resistance just above the upper edge of the channel.

Intermediate wave (4) should last one to a few months in total. I expect it to end in about six to eight weeks time.

GDX daily 2013

If intermediate wave (3) ends at 20.38 on 3rd December, 2013, then this is where intermediate wave (4) begins. Minor wave A begins with an expanded flat correction and is technically a double combination. However, double combinations should move price sideways and should not slope against the main trend as this one clearly does. GDX is not a market I have been analysing for long, and so far it does not seem to have typical structures, but this problem is significant and the reason for looking for an alternate.

If intermediate wave (4) triangle begins with a double combination for minor wave A then all the remaining subwaves must be simple A-B-C structures, most likely zigzags.

Minor waves B and C are both zigzags.

A second problem now with this wave count is the shallow slope of the A-C trend line. A-C trend lines normally have steeper slopes than this one.

Minor wave D may end between about 75% to 85% of minor wave C between 23.10 to 22.81. It may not move below the end of minor wave B at 21.93. I would not accept a barrier triangle with a very shallow A-C trend line because it would look too atypical. The B-D trend line should have a reasonable slope.

If price moves below 21.93 the alternate below would be confirmed.

Alternate Wave Count.

GDX daily 2013

If intermediate wave (3) ends a little lower, at the price low at 20.24 on 23rd Dec, 2013 then there is a nice running contracting triangle for a fourth wave just prior to the end. Although this is out of proportion to its counterpart minute wave ii zigzag, triangles and zigzags of the same degree are often disproportionate.

Minor wave A now fits better as a five wave impulse. There are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between minute waves i, iii and v. Minute wave iv shows alternation as a running contracting triangle, with the zigzag of minute wave ii.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: minuette wave (iii) is 14.70 longer than 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i), and there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette wave (v) and either of (i) or (iii).

Minor wave B may be unfolding as a regular flat correction: minute wave a subdivides as a zigzag and minuette wave b is also a zigzag with a 96% correction of minute wave a. At 21.68 minute wave c would reach equality in length with minute wave a.

Because minor wave A subdivides as a five then intermediate wave (4) must be a zigzag. Within the zigzag minor wave B may not move below the start of minor wave A at 20.24.

When minor wave B is complete then minor wave C should move at least a little above the end of minor wave A at 28.03 to avoid a truncation.

Minute wave a lasted 51 days and minute wave b lasted 30 days. Minute c may end about in about three to four weeks time.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th July, 2014 – Charts Only

Click here to see prior Elliott wave GDX analysis for a full write up.

Click charts to enlarge.

GDX monthly 2013

GDX daily 2013

Alternate Wave Count.

GDX daily alternate 2013

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th June, 2014

Last Elliott wave analysis expected to see downwards movement for a D wave within the triangle. Price did move lower in choppy overlapping sideways movement, but wave D has not yet arrived.

Click charts to enlarge.

GDX monthly 2013

The clearest piece of movement is the downwards movement from the high. This looks most like a first, second and third wave. This may be the start of a larger correction.

Intermediate wave (3) is $1.06 longer than 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Within intermediate wave (3) there are no Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

Ratios within minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $2.19 longer than 0.618 the length of minute wave i.

Ratios within minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $0.63 longer than 0.382 the length of minute wave iii.

Draw a parallel channel about this downwards movement. Draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy upon the high of intermediate wave (2). I would expect intermediate wave (4) to find resistance at the upper edge of the channel, and it may end there.

Intermediate wave (4) should last one to a few months.

GDX daily 2013

Minor wave C is incomplete because a new high since last analysis cannot be minor wave D. Price should move higher before minor wave C is done.

Sideways movement since last analysis may have been an expanded flat for minute wave b within minor wave C.

At this stage it cannot be confirmed that minute wave b is complete. This movement may only be minuette wave (a) or (w) within a larger flat or combination. If minute wave b continues further it would very likely move sideways and not substantially lower.

Minute wave c upwards may not exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to minute wave a. It may find resistance and end at the upper edge of the black channel copied over here from the monthly chart.

Minor wave D may not move beyond the end of minor wave B below 21.93 for a contracting triangle. For a barrier triangle minor wave D may end about the same level as minor wave B, as long as the B-D trend line remains essentially flat. In practice this means minor wave D may move very slightly below 21.93 as this invalidation point is not black and white.

Minor wave E would most likely fall short of the A-C trend line.

The whole triangle for intermediate wave (4) may find resistance, and may end, at the upper edge of the black channel which is here copied over from the monthly chart.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th June, 2014

To see a monthly chart see one analysis prior.

Click charts to enlarge.

GDX daily 2013

Within this triangle structure for intermediate wave (4) minor wave C may now be complete. Within minor wave C minute wave c is $8 short of equality in length with minute wave a. Minute wave c could move higher, and if it does by about $8 then this ratio would be improved. If the next candlestick is red I would have some confidence that minor wave C is over.

When the narrow pink channel about minor wave C is breached to the downside I would have full confidence that minor wave C is over.

Minor wave D downwards may not move beyond the start of minor wave B at 21.93. However, for a barrier triangle minor wave D may end about the same level as minor wave B, as long as the B-D trend line is essentially flat. In practice this means that minor wave D may end slightly below 21.93 and so this lower invalidation point is not black and white.

Minor wave D may last about three weeks, and it could be more time consuming than this. It depends on how long the B wave within it lasts.

Minor wave E would most likely fall short of the A-C trend line.

The whole triangle for intermediate wave (4) may find resistance, and may end, at the upper edge of the black channel which is here copied over from the monthly chart.

In summary I am expecting several more weeks of choppy overlapping range bound movement from GDX. When that is done price should break out to the downside for intermediate wave (5).

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th June, 2014

Downwards movement for GDX, like Gold, did not reach the minimum requirement for a flat correction. This changes the wave count for the short to mid term for GDX. I expect now that like Gold it is completing a fourth wave triangle.

Click charts to enlarge.

GDX monthly 2013

The clearest piece of movement is the downwards movement from the high. This looks most like a first, second and third wave. This may be the start of a larger correction.

Intermediate wave (3) is $1.06 longer than 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Within intermediate wave (3) there are no Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

Ratios within minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $2.19 longer than 0.618 the length of minute wave i.

Ratios within minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $0.63 longer than 0.382 the length of minute wave iii.

Draw a parallel channel about this downwards movement. Draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy upon the high of intermediate wave (2). I would expect intermediate wave (4) to find resistance at the upper edge of the channel, and it may end there.

Intermediate wave (4) should last one to a few months.

GDX daily 2013

I expect that intermediate wave (4) is completing as a regular contracting triangle. Within the triangle all the subwaves must subdivide as corrective structures, one may be a multiple, and four of the five waves must be zigzags or multiple zigzags.

So far minor wave A is a multiple so this means all the remaining subwaves must be simple A-B-C corrections. Minor wave A is technically a double combination so this means all the remaining waves must be simple zigzags.

Within minor wave C minute wave b may not move beyond the end of minute wave a below 21.93.

Minor wave C may not move beyond the end of minor wave A above 28.03.

Overall this wave count now expects to see very choppy overlapping sideways movement for a few weeks yet before this correction is over.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 7th March, 2014

The data for this market has many gaps, and the structures are not entirely typical looking Elliott wave structures. Although there are some Fibonacci ratios, they are not as prevalent as ratios within Gold. I am only able to import daily data, and I cannot check subdivisions on lower time frames.

While I expect my analysis of GDX will be useful to you, please note that it may not have as good an accuracy rate as what I can achieve for Gold.

Overall the structures and the wave count will be quite different from Gold. Although it looks these two markets have major turns together, the subdivisions within each are quite different.

Continue reading GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 7th March, 2014