A small range day remains within the trend lines of the pennant pattern. The target remains the same. The breakout is expected within the next one to two sessions.
Today Gold may be in the process of a classic upwards breakout from a multi-year consolidation. If this session closes above 1,374.91 (the July 2016 high) on an upwards day with support from volume, then have confidence in the breakout.
Today I have three Elliott wave counts, all of which are bullish.
Price continues to move sideways. The short-term structure fits the main hourly Elliott wave count best.
The bounce was expected to continue for Tuesday’s session, which is what has happened.
This analysis overall expects a downwards trend, which is how the new trading week has begun.
A bounce on Friday remains below the short-term invalidation point for the hourly Elliott wave count. The mid and long-term targets remain the same.
The preferred Elliott wave count expected price to continue lower, which is exactly what has happened. A channel was used on the hourly chart to indicate where bounces may find resistance, and this has almost perfectly shown where the high for the session ended before price turned to move strongly lower.
Price remains within the channel. At this stage, the analysis has now switched to neutral, awaiting technical indication of a trend change or a continuation of the existing trend.
Both Elliott wave counts expected more sideways movement, which is what has happened.
The breakout is expected to be in the same direction from the Elliott wave count and from classic technical analysis of the current pattern.
Sideways movement in a small range fits the short-term expectation from the Elliott wave count. Volume today supports the preferred Elliott wave count.
The main Elliott wave count expected more upwards movement, which is so far what has happened.
For the mid term, volume and On Balance Volume this week give an important signal. For the short term, Friday’s candlestick gives a contradictory signal. The main Elliott wave count remains the same.
Another small range inside day sees the Elliott wave counts very slightly adjusted, but this makes little difference to the short term expectation and no difference to the mid or long term expectation. The breakout direction is still expected to be the same.