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USDJPY Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th January, 2017

An update to the last USDJPY analysis, which was done July 15, 2016.

This pair has moved higher as expected. There is now structure of upwards movement to analyse.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

USDJPY Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The big picture sees a five up complete followed by a three down complete.

The risk to this analysis is that the three down is just the first in a double zigzag for a deeper correction. It is possible that cycle wave II could continue lower. It may not move beyond the start of cycle wave I below 75.573.

WEEKLY CHART

USDJPY Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The downwards wave labelled cycle wave II fits best as a single zigzag. Primary wave C is very long in relation to primary wave A, but all subdivisions fit.

A five up is not yet complete within the new upwards movement. When primary wave 1 is complete, then the following correction for primary wave 2 should last months and should be deep. It may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 below 99.075.

DAILY CHART

USDJPY Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The black channel is a best fit. The upper edge may provide resistance.

The cyan trend line may provide support. This may halt the fall in price here today for minor wave 4. However, there is still a little room for price to move lower for another day or so, and an increase in volume for the downwards session today shows volume supports the current fall in price.

Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory below 104.315.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

DAILY CHART

USDJPY Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Price and RSI showed double divergence at the last high. Price may now find some support about the mid term Fibonacci 55 day moving average.

The trend is up: the short term average is above the mid term, which is above the long term and the long and mid term averages are pointing upwards. The short term average is pointing downwards as a correction within the upwards trend unfolds.

ADX reached an extreme at the last high, above 40 (35 and above is extreme reading). The black ADX line was above both the +DX and -DX lines also indicating an extreme trend. This current correction has brought ADX down below 35, but it remains above both directional lines. Further downwards movement by price may be required to bring it down further.

Price is supported by volume and increasing ATR as it falls from the last high (see Elliott wave charts for volume data). This fall in price looks incomplete.

Stochastics is almost oversold. If it reaches oversold, then the fall in price may end within three days.

If price falls further, it may be only for a few days and only down to about the 55 day average.

This analysis is published @ 10:55 p.m. EST.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th January, 2017

Silver has moved higher with some support from volume. The Elliott wave counts are the same.

Continue reading SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th January, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th January, 2017

Resistance will be used to see where price may turn. Fibonacci numbers are used for duration and parallel channels are used for confidence in a turn.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th January, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th January, 2017

Some weakness is seen in this upwards movement and price remains within a narrow channel on the hourly Elliott wave chart.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th January, 2017

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th January, 2017

The target for upwards movement to end was at 58.05. It has not been met. The Elliott wave count remains the same.

Summary: Downwards movement is now expected to at least 28.61. The target is at 25.59. A new low below 49.96 would add confidence that price has turned downwards.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

MONTHLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Within the bear market, cycle wave b is seen as ending in May 2011. Thereafter, a five wave structure downwards for cycle wave c begins.

Primary wave 1 is a short impulse lasting five months. Primary wave 2 is a very deep 0.94 zigzag lasting 22 months. Primary wave 3 is a complete impulse with no Fibonacci ratio to primary wave 1. It lasted 30 months.

Primary wave 4 is likely to exhibit alternation with primary wave 2. Primary wave 4 is most likely to be a flat, combination or triangle. Within all of these types of structures, the first movement subdivides as a three. The least likely structure for primary wave 4 is a zigzag.

Primary wave 4 is likely to end within the price territory of the fourth wave of one lesser degree; intermediate wave (4) has its range from 42.03 to 62.58.

Primary wave 4 may end if price comes up to touch the upper edge of the maroon channel. The upper edge of this channel has been pushed up to sit on the end of intermediate wave (2) within primary wave 3.

Primary wave 4 is most likely to be shallow to exhibit alternation in depth with primary wave 2. So far it has passed the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio at 45.52. It may now continue to move mostly sideways in a large range.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory above 74.96.

At this stage, primary wave 4 has completed intermediate wave (A) only. Intermediate wave (B) is incomplete.

DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Intermediate wave (B) still looks like it is unfolding as a flat correction. Within intermediate wave (B), minor wave A is a zigzag and minor wave B is now a complete zigzag.

Minor wave B is a 1.29 length of minor wave A. This is within the normal range of 1 to 1.38. This indicates intermediate wave (B) is an expanded flat, as within it minor wave B is longer than 1.05 the length of minor wave A.

It must be accepted that minor wave B could continue higher while price remains above the confidence point at 49.96. A new low below the start of minuette wave (v) at 49.96 could not be a second wave correction within the last fifth wave up, so at that stage confidence may be had in a trend change.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory above 74.96.

Minor wave C downwards must subdivide as a five wave structure.

Because intermediate wave (A) fits so well as a three wave structure, it is still most likely that intermediate wave (B) must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of intermediate wave (A) at 28.61. When an A wave subdivides as a three, then a flat correction is indicated.

The normal range for intermediate wave (B) within a flat correction is from 1 to 1.38 the length of intermediate wave (A) giving a range from 26.06 to 16.33.

Price has broken below the lower edge of the channel, which was drawn on the daily chart in the last analysis. Price behaviour around the upwards sloping green trend line suggests a trend change. Price may now find resistance about the downwards sloping green trend line.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

DAILY CHART

US Oil Chart Daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

For the last five sessions, the two downwards sessions have stronger volume than the upwards sessions. This suggests the trend may now be down.

ADX has today indicated a possible trend change to downwards: the -DX line has crossed above the +DX line. The ADX line is declining though, so no new trend is yet indicated.

The short term Fibonacci 21 day moving average has today turned downwards, but it remains above the mid and long term averages and those both remain pointing upwards. If there has been a trend change, then it is very early.

Price found resistance about 54.15 and 55.55. The next line of support is currently held at 52.05 and then at 50.30.

ATR has had a period of decline as price moved higher. This supports the Elliott wave count because it sees that upwards movement as a B wave. Now ATR may be beginning to increase.

On Balance Volume gives no indication yet of direction. It remains constrained below resistance and above support.

RSI has just crossed over to bearish territory today.

Stochastics is bearish and is not extreme. There is plenty of room for price to fall.

Bollinger Bands are tightly contracted.

This analysis is published @ 10:54 p.m. EST.

[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Member comments and discussion will remain private.]

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th January, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th January, 2017

Gold has had a trend change. How high this next wave goes and what structure it takes will indicate which Elliott wave count at the monthly chart level may be correct.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th January, 2017

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th December, 2016

Silver has moved lower on light and declining volume since last analysis three days ago.

Continue reading SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th December, 2016

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th December, 2016

Upwards movement is continuing as expected.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th December, 2016

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd December, 2016

Another very small range day completes a small doji candlestick. This fits neatly with the expectations short term for the Elliott wave count.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd December, 2016

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd December, 2016

Another small inside day fits both Elliott wave counts, but price behaviour is pointing to one scenario more strongly than the other.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd December, 2016

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st December, 2016

A small inside day fits the preferred expectations for Gold, but all Elliott wave counts still remain valid. Targets remain the same.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st December, 2016

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st December, 2016

Price has moved lower as the main Elliott wave count expected, but only slightly. The confirmation / invalidation point remains the same.

Continue reading SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st December, 2016