Tag Archives: elliott wave daily

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4th July, 2017

Sideways movement fits expectations following the strong downwards day of the 3rd of July, which was also expected. The Elliott wave count is nicely predicting price behaviour at this time, and it has substantial support from classic technical analysis.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4th July, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th April, 2017

A correction was expected to continue for another one to few days. Today’s red candlestick with a long lower wick mostly fits that expectation.

Price remains above the invalidation point but the wave count no longer has the right look, so today it is changed.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th April, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st April, 2017

A weak upwards day exactly fits the expectation from last analysis.

Summary: The correction is still most likely incomplete. It may continue further for yet another one to few days. Thereafter, the upwards trend should resume. The target for long positions remains at this stage at 1,333. If this is wrong, it may not be high enough.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here.

MAIN ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

DAILY CHART – DETAIL

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This chart steps back to see all movement since the important low on the 3rd of December, 2015.

To see how this fits into the bigger picture, please see the last historic analysis linked to at the start of this analysis.

The first upwards movement labelled primary wave 1 fits well as a five wave impulse. Primary wave 2 fits as a zigzag. It would be difficult to see the downwards wave of primary wave 2 as an impulse because that would require ignoring what looks very much like a triangle at its start (labelled intermediate wave (B) ). To see this as an impulse that movement would need to be a second wave correction, but second waves do not subdivide as triangles.

Primary wave 3 should have begun. Within it intermediate waves (1) and (2) should be complete. Intermediate wave (2) is a very common expanded flat correction.

My only concern at this stage is the labelling of minute wave iii as complete. It is possible that the middle portion of this third wave at three degrees has passed, if the next waves up for minute wave v and minor wave 5 are both very long and strong extensions.

It may also be possible that the middle of the big third wave has not passed and the degree of labelling within minor wave 3 needs to be moved down one degree. If minute wave ii is yet to unfold, it may not move beyond the start of minute wave i below 1,240.24.

DAILY CHART

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This daily chart will suffice for both weekly charts, which can be seen in the last published historic analysis.

Upwards movement at primary degree is either a third wave (first weekly chart) to unfold as an impulse, or a Y wave (second weekly chart) to unfold as a zigzag. If upwards movement is a zigzag for primary wave Y, then it would be labelled intermediate waves (A) – (B) and now (C) to unfold. It is most likely a third wave because cycle wave a is most likely to subdivide as an impulse.

Intermediate wave (1) or (A) is a complete five wave impulse lasting 39 days. Intermediate wave (2) or (B) looks like an expanded flat, which is a very common structure.

So far, within intermediate wave (3) or (C), minor waves 1 and 2 are now complete. Minor wave 3 looks to have begun. Within minor wave 3, the middle portion for minute wave iii may now be complete. Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory below 1,261.00.

Minute wave v is expected to be very strong, possibly ending with a blow off top.

A cyan trend line is added to all charts. Draw it from the high in October 2012 to the high in July 2016. This line has been tested five times. Price is finding resistance at the cyan trend line now. If price can break through resistance here after some consolidation, then that may release energy to the upside for the end of minor wave 3.

HOURLY CHART

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Minute wave ii was a deep 0.79 double zigzag, which lasted 25 hours, and on the daily chart it shows as only one session.

Given the guideline of alternation, minute wave iv may be expected to most likely be a flat, combination or triangle. All of these structures may include a new high above its start at 1,294.96 as part of the correction. A new high does not indicate minute wave iv is over.

Combinations, flats and triangles are all usually more longer lasting structures than zigzags.

At this stage, a flat correction for minute wave iv may be ruled out because there is no upwards wave within it that has retraced a minimum 0.9 length of any downwards wave within it. The minimum length for minuette wave (b) within a flat correction for minute wave iv has not been met.

A triangle does not look likely at this stage. Often MACD hovers about the zero line while a triangle unfolds. If it starts to do that and price just meanders sideways, then a triangle would be indicated and published again.

A combination looks most likely at this stage.

If minute wave iv is a combination, then the first structure within it labelled minuette wave (w) may be a complete zigzag.

The two structures in the double may be joined by a complete three in the opposite direction labelled minuette wave (x), which subdivides as an expanded flat correction.

Minuette wave (y) may have begun. It may be either a flat or a triangle.

At this stage, minuette wave (y) looks like it may be continuing further as a flat correction. Within the flat correction, subminuette wave b must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of subminuette wave a. Subminuette wave c would then be very likely to end at least slightly below the end of subminuette wave a at 1,276.96 to avoid a truncation and a very rare running flat.

If minuette wave (y) is a flat correction, then at its end it will have to break below the parallel copy of the best fit channel, copied over from the daily chart. Fourth waves are not always neatly contained within channels.

It is also possible that minuette wave (y) may yet unfold sideways as a triangle and remain all or almost all within the best fit channel.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory below 1,261.00.

ALTERNATE HOURLY CHART

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

What if minute wave iv is over, finding support close to the lower edge of the best fit channel?

This is only possible if it is seen as a complete double zigzag. Minute wave ii fits as a double zigzag.

Alternation is a guideline and not a rule; it does not have to be seen. Very occasionally second and fourth waves do take the same structural form. Because this is not common, the probability of this wave count is low.

There would be alternation in depth: minute wave ii was a very deep 0.79 correction while minute wave iv is a shallow 0.36 correction.

If price can break above the cyan trend line early next week, then this wave count would increase in probability to be the main wave count. At that stage, expect a strong increase in upwards momentum and look out for a blow off top.

Within minute wave v, the upcoming correction for minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i) below 1,276.96.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

There are a lot of assumptions out there about Gold and its relationships to various other markets. Happily, there is a quick and easy mathematical method to determine if Gold is indeed related to any other market: StockCharts have a “correlation” option in their indicators that shows the correlation coefficient between any selected market and the one charted.

The correlation coefficient ranges from -1 to 1. A correlation coefficient of 1 is a perfect positive correlation whereas a correlation coefficient of -1 is a perfect negative correlation.

A correlation coefficient of 0.5 to 1 is a strong positive correlation. A correlation coefficient of -0.5 to -1 is a strong negative correlation.

Any two markets which have a correlation coefficient that fluctuates about zero or spends time in the 0.5 to -0.5 range (shown by highlighted areas on the chart) may not be said to have a correlation. Markets which sometimes have a positive or negative correlation, but sometimes do not, may not be assumed to continue a relationship when it does arise. The relationship is not reliable.

For illustrative purposes I have included the correlation coefficient between Gold and Silver, which is what strong and reliable correlation should look like.

Gold made a higher high and a higher low this week, although the candlestick has closed red. An increase in volume is bullish. The long lower wick on the candlestick is also bullish although the colour is bearish.

ADX does not yet indicate a trend. If it reaches 15 or above, then it would indicate an upwards trend. RSI indicates there is still plenty of room for price to rise. This chart is bullish.

DAILY CHART

Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

I do not have confidence in the data from StockCharts for the daily candlestick for the 12th of April. As the session ended, I did not see a spike down to 1,278, which is their close, and creates the long upper wick on their candlestick.

The long lower wicks on the last four daily candlesticks are bullish.

Volume indicates the last two upwards days may be still part of a consolidation and not yet the resumption of the upwards trend. This favours the main hourly Elliott wave count.

The only concern here for the main hourly Elliott wave count is ADX at almost extreme. Usually, when the black ADX line reaches above both directional lines the trend ends there or within a day or two. This may favour the main Elliott wave count; a couple of days of further consolidation with a slightly deeper move at the end may flatten the black ADX line allowing it to draw away from the +DX line. Alternatively, a strong upwards move may pull the +DX line back above the ADX line.

Price may find support about the Fibonacci 13 day moving average.

The short and mid term moving averages have a positive slope and price is above both. An upwards trend for the short and mid term is indicated. The long term 200 day moving average may be flattening off; it is still declining but only very slightly. If it begins to have a positive slope, it may be rolling over.

GDX

DAILY CHART

GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Price is back within the prior consolidation zone. This zone is now widened. There is some distance to go before price may find support about 22.50.

With ATR declining, ADX declining, and Bollinger Bands tightly contracted, this downwards movement looks like a pullback and not a new downwards trend. Support is about 22.75 and next about 22.50.

STUDY OF A THIRD WAVE IN $GOLD

Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

This study of a third wave will be left in daily analysis until the current third wave is either proven to be wrong (invalidated) or it is complete.

This third wave spans 59 trading days.

It was not until the 40th day that the overlapping ended and the third wave took off strongly.

The middle of the third wave is the end of minute wave iii, which ended in a blow off top.

There is excellent alternation between second and fourth wave corrections.

This third wave began with a series of five overlapping first and second waves (if the hourly chart were to be added, it would be seven) before momentum really builds and the overlapping ends.

The fifth wave of minuette wave (v) is the strongest portion.

This third wave curves upwards. This is typical of Gold’s strong impulses. They begin slowly, accelerate towards the middle, and explode at the end. They do not fit neatly into channels. In this instance, the gold coloured curve was used.

Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

This trend began after a long consolidation period of which the upper edge is bound by the blue trend line. After the breakout above the blue trend line, price curved back down to test support at the line before moving up and away.

RSI reaches overbought while price continues higher for another five days and RSI reaches above 85. The point in time where RSI reaches overbought is prior to the strongest upwards movement.

ADX reached above 35 on the 9th of February, but price continued higher for another two days.

The lesson to be learned here: look for RSI to be extreme and ADX to be extreme at the same time, then look for a blow off top. Only then expect that the middle of a big third wave is most likely over.

The end of this big third wave only came after the blow off top was followed by shallow consolidation, and more highs. At its end RSI exhibited strong divergence with price and On Balance Volume gave a bearish signal.

Third waves require patience at their start and patience at their ends.

This analysis is published @ 09:25 p.m. EST.

[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Trading advice and member comments and discussion will remain private.]

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st April, 2017

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 19th April, 2017

A break below the small best fit channel on the daily chart indicated a trend change for US Oil.

Members were then advised to enter a short position. Short positions are now positive.

Summary: The target is at least a new low below 47.06; it should be comfortably below that point.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

MONTHLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Within the bear market, cycle wave b is seen as ending in May 2011. Thereafter, a five wave structure downwards for cycle wave c begins.

Within cycle wave c, at this stage it does not look like primary wave 5 could be complete. That would only be possible if primary wave 4 was over too quickly.

Primary wave 1 is a short impulse lasting five months. Primary wave 2 is a very deep 0.94 zigzag lasting 22 months. Primary wave 3 is a complete impulse with no Fibonacci ratio to primary wave 1. It lasted 30 months.

Primary wave 4 is likely to exhibit alternation with primary wave 2. Primary wave 4 is most likely to be a flat, combination or triangle. Within all of these types of structures, the first movement subdivides as a three. The least likely structure for primary wave 4 is a zigzag.

Primary wave 4 is likely to end within the price territory of the fourth wave of one lesser degree; intermediate wave (4) has its range from 42.03 to 62.58.

If primary wave 4 is incomplete, then it looks like it may not remain contained within the channel. Sometimes fourth waves overshoot channels and this is why Elliott developed a second technique to redraw the channel when it does not contain a fourth wave.

Primary wave 4 is most likely to be shallow to exhibit alternation in depth with primary wave 2. So far it has passed the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio at 45.52. It may now continue to move mostly sideways in a large range.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory above 74.96.

At this stage, primary wave 4 has completed intermediate wave (A) only. Intermediate wave (B) is incomplete.

WEEKLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

The whole structure of primary wave 4 is seen here in more detail.

The first wave labelled intermediate wave (A) is seen as a double zigzag, which is classified as a three.

Intermediate wave (B) is also a three. This means primary wave 4 is most likely unfolding as a flat correction if my analysis of intermediate wave (A) is correct. Flats are very common structures.

Intermediate wave (B) began with a zigzag downwards. This indicates it too is unfolding most likely as a flat correction.

Within intermediate wave (B), the zigzag upwards for minor wave B is a 1.29 correction of minor wave A. This indicates intermediate wave (B) may be unfolding as an expanded flat, the most common type.

The normal range for intermediate wave (B) within a flat correction for primary wave 4 is from 1 to 1.38 the length of intermediate wave (A) giving a range from 26.06 to 16.33.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory above 74.96.

Within the larger expanded flat correction of primary wave 4, intermediate wave (B) must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of intermediate wave (A) at 28.61 or below.

DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave C downwards must subdivide as a five wave structure.

Within minor wave C, minute waves i and ii should be complete and minute wave iii must be incomplete. Upwards movement, which is labelled minuette wave (ii), cannot be minute wave iv as it overlaps back into minute wave i price territory.

Within minute wave iii, minuette wave (i) is complete and minuette wave (ii) now looks most likely to be over.

A small best fit channel is drawn about the zigzag of minuette wave (ii). This channel is now breached providing trend channel confirmation of a trend change. This wave count would now expect an increase in downwards momentum.

Minuette wave (iii) must make a new low below the end of minuette wave (i) at 47.06. It must move far enough below that point to allow for subsequent upwards movement for minuette wave (iv) to unfold and remain below minuette wave (i) price territory.

Within minuette wave (iii), no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 53.76.

The cyan trend line is drawn from the high labelled minor wave B to the next swing high labelled minute wave ii. This is a Magee trend line for a bear market. Expect that US Oil is most likely in a downwards trend as long as price remains below this cyan trend line.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

DAILY CHART

US Oil Chart Daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

The candlestick of the 12th of April completes a Bearish Engulfing Candlestick reversal pattern. The important condition for this pattern (where the close of the second candlestick is below the open of the first) is met. This is one of the most reliable reversal patterns. It works more often than not, but not always. An example of it not working is shown on the 3rd of April.

The reversal pattern of the 12th of April has support from volume whereas the 3rd of April did not. This increases the probability that price may reverse here.

The long lower wick on the last daily candlestick for the 18th of April is bullish, as is stronger volume to support upwards movement of price during the session (indicated by On Balance Volume moving higher for this session). This bounce may move a little higher.

New trend lines are drawn on On Balance Volume. These do not yet have good technical significance, so a breach here would be only a weak signal.

VOLATILITY INDEX

OVX Chart Daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Normally, volatility should decline as price rises and volatility should increase as price falls. Divergence from this normal can provide a bullish or bearish signal for Oil.

For the last session, here dated the 18th of April, volatility has declined below the 11th of April but price has not made a new high. This divergence is bearish and supports the idea of a trend change here for Oil.

This analysis is published @ 03:07 a.m. EST.

[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Member comments and discussion will remain private.]

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 19th April, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th April, 2017

Yesterday’s analysis expected another shallow correction to continue sideways. This is mostly what has happened. Price bounced up almost exactly at the lower edge of the channel on the hourly chart, where support was expected as fairly likely.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th April, 2017

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 14th April, 2017

On Balance Volume gave a signal early in the week that a deeper pullback may unfold. Price found support at the Fibonacci 55 day moving average before turning upwards.

Continue reading SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 14th April, 2017