Last analysis expected more upwards movement towards a short term target about 1,256 which was expected to be reached on Monday. Price has moved higher and has reached 1,254.58 during Monday’s session, just 1.42 short of the target.
I am changing the degree of labeling for the most recent movement, but other than that the wave count remains the same.
Click on the charts below to enlarge.
Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete. To see a full explanation of my reasoning for expecting that primary wave 4 is not over and is continuing see this.
Movement above 1,277.97 would provide confirmation that primary wave 4 is not over. At that stage upwards movement could not be a fourth wave correction within primary wave 5 because it would be in its first wave price territory, and the downwards movement labeled intermediate wave (X) would be confirmed as a completed three wave structure.
When the channel about intermediate wave (X) is finally breached by upwards movement then I would consider that final confirmation that intermediate wave (Y) is underway.
Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat correction, and was a deep 68% correction of primary wave 1. In order to show alternation in structure primary wave 4 may be a zigzag, double zigzag, combination, triangle or even an expanded or regular flat. We can rule out a zigzag because the first wave subdivides as a three. This still leaves several structural possibilities.
The downwards wave labeled intermediate wave (X) is now 99% the length of the upwards wave labeled intermediate wave (W). Primary wave 4 is most likely to be a combination or triangle in order to show structural alternation with the running flat of primary wave 2.
Primary wave 4 is unlikely to be a flat correction because if it were it would be a regular flat. These have similar behaviour and a similar look to running flats, and so there would be little structural alternation between primary waves 2 and 4.
Primary wave 4 is most likely to be a combination rather than a double zigzag because of the depth of intermediate wave (X). Double combinations take up time and move price sideways, and their X waves can be very deep. Double zigzags are different because their purpose is to deepen a correction when the first zigzag does not move price deep enough, so their X waves are not normally very deep. Thus intermediate wave (Y) is most likely to be a flat correction, and less likely a triangle and least likely a zigzag. It is most likely to end about the same level as intermediate wave (W) at 1,434 so that the whole structure moves sideways. It may last about 43 to 89 days, depending upon what structure it takes.
If intermediate wave (Y) is a flat correction then within it minor wave B must retrace a minimum of 90% the length of minor wave A, and it may make a new low below 1,180.84.
If intermediate wave (Y) is a flat correction then within it minor wave A must subdivide as a three wave structure. At this stage it looks like minor wave A may be unfolding as a flat correction, because within it minute wave a looks like it is unfolding as a corrective structure (a double zigzag).
Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.
Upwards movement completed a five wave structure labeled subminuette wave a. I have moved the degree of labeling down within minor wave A by one degree. This upwards double zigzag is unlikely to be of minor degree because it is unfolding too rapidly. It is more likely to be minute degree.
If minor wave A is unfolding as a flat correction then within it minute wave a must be a three wave corrective structure, which includes a double zigzag.
Minute wave a would be complete when the second zigzag in the double labeled minuette wave (y) is complete.
Minuette wave (y) would be complete when subminuette wave c upwards is a completed five wave structure. Subminuette wave c would reach equality with subminuette wave a at 1,280.
Draw a parallel channel about this upwards zigzag of minuette wave (y) using Elliott’s technique for a correction. Draw the first trend line from the start of subminuette wave a to the end of subminuette wave b, then place a parallel copy upon the end of subminuette wave a. I would expect subminuette wave c to find resistance and maybe end at the upper edge of this channel.
When subinuette wave c can be seen as a completed five wave structure (and whether or not the target is reached) then subsequent movement below this parallel channel would provide confirmation that minuette wave (y) is completed and the next wave is underway. The next wave should be a very deep corrective structure for minute wave b which must retrace a minimum of 90% the length of minute wave a.
The target at 1,280 may be reached in one or two days.
Within subminuette wave c no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,243.82.
Alternate Daily Wave Count – Triangle.
It is also possible that primary wave 4 may continue as a regular contracting (or barrier) triangle.
The expected direction of this next upwards wave is the same, but for this alternate intermediate wave (C) of the triangle may not move beyond the end of intermediate wave (A). The triangle is invalidated with movement above 1,438.83.
Intermediate wave (C) must unfold as either a single or double zigzag. Within it no second wave correction, nor wave B of the zigzag, may move beyond the start of the first wave or A wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,180.84.
The final intermediate wave (E) upwards may not move above the end of intermediate wave (C) for both a contracting and barrier triangle. E waves most commonly end short of the A-C trend line.
All five subwaves of a triangle must divide into corrective structures. If this next upwards movement subdivides as a zigzag which does not make a new high above 1,438.83 then this alternate would be correct.
Triangles take up time and move price sideways. If primary wave 4 unfolds as a triangle then I would expect it to last months rather than weeks.