Last analysis expected a little more upwards movement towards a short term target at 1,263. Price has reached up to 1,263.06.

Thereafter, at about this target a short term trend change was expected for a few days of overall downwards movement.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete. To see a full explanation of my reasoning for expecting that primary wave 4 is not over and is continuing see this.

Movement above 1,277.97 would provide confirmation that primary wave 4 is not over. At that stage upwards movement could not be a fourth wave correction within primary wave 5 because it would be in its first wave price territory, and the downwards movement labeled intermediate wave (X) would be confirmed as a completed three wave structure.

Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat correction, and was a deep 68% correction of primary wave 1. In order to show alternation in structure primary wave 4 may be a zigzag, double zigzag, combination, triangle or even an expanded flat. We can rule out a zigzag because the first wave subdivides as a three. This still leaves several structural possibilities.

Primary wave 4 is most likely to be a combination or triangle in order to show structural alternation with the running flat of primary wave 2.

The downwards wave labeled intermediate wave (X) is 99% the length of the upwards wave labeled intermediate wave (W). Primary wave 4 is unlikely to be a flat correction because if it were it would be a regular flat. These have similar behaviour and a similar look to running flats, and so there would be little structural alternation between primary waves 2 and 4.

Primary wave 4 is most likely to be a combination rather than a double zigzag because of the depth of intermediate wave (X). Double combinations take up time and move price sideways, and their X waves can be very deep. Double zigzags are different because their purpose is to deepen a correction when the first zigzag does not move price deep enough, so their X waves are not normally very deep. Thus intermediate wave (Y) is most likely to be a flat correction, and less likely a triangle and least likely a zigzag. It is most likely to end about the same level as intermediate wave (W) at 1,434 so that the whole structure moves sideways. It may last about 43 to 89 days, depending upon what structure it takes.

If intermediate wave (Y) is a flat correction then within it minor wave B must retrace a minimum of 90% the length of minor wave A, and it may make a new low below 1,180.84.

If intermediate wave (Y) is a flat correction then within it minor wave A must subdivide as a three wave structure. At this stage it looks like minor wave A may be unfolding as a zigzag because minute wave a within it looks like it is unfolding as a leading diagonal which is a five wave structure.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.

The leading diagonal structure of minute wave a is now complete. Minuette wave (v) slightly overshot the upper 1-3 trend line, which is reasonably common. This structure looks typical.

I would now expect a few days of very choppy overlapping downwards movement for minute wave b. Minute wave a lasted a Fibonacci thirteen days. I would expect minute wave b to last about eight or thirteen days.

At this early stage it is impossible to tell which structure will unfold for minute wave b, and there are thirteen possible structures. When more structure is complete I will draw a channel about this correction and use that to indicate where it may end, and to then confirm when it is over. For now I will use the Fibonacci ratios of minute wave a as targets for minute wave b, and I favour the 0.382 and 0.618 Fibonacci ratios equally.

If minute wave b unfolds as an expanded flat, running triangle or combination then it may include a B wave or X wave which may make a new high above 1,263.06. There can be no upper invalidation point for this wave count at this stage.

Minute wave b may not move beyond the start of minute wave a. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,180.84.

Alternate Daily Wave Count – Triangle.

It is also possible that primary wave 4 may continue as a regular contracting (or barrier) triangle.

The expected direction of this next upwards wave is the same, but for this alternate intermediate wave (C) of the triangle may not move beyond the end of intermediate wave (A). The triangle is invalidated with movement above 1,438.83.

Intermediate wave (C) must unfold as either a single or double zigzag. Within it no second wave correction, nor wave B of the zigzag, may move beyond the start of the first wave or A wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,180.84.

The final intermediate wave (E) upwards may not move above the end of intermediate wave (C) for both a contracting and barrier triangle. E waves most commonly end short of the A-C trend line.

All five subwaves of a triangle must divide into corrective structures. If this next upwards movement subdivides as a zigzag which does not make a new high above 1,438.83 then this alternate would be correct.

Triangles take up time and move price sideways. If primary wave 4 unfolds as a triangle then I would expect it to last months rather than weeks.