At the daily chart level it looks like minute wave ii is incomplete and found resistance at the upper edge of the channel.
I would expect a little more downwards movement overall to complete an ending contracting diagonal, which should be followed by overall upwards movement. The target for downwards movement to end is just below 19.327. Downwards movement should not breach 18.585.
When there is a full daily candlestick above the channel and not touching the upper trend line then I would have confidence in a trend change.
Click on the chart below to enlarge.
Hi,
You keep mentioning about positive confirmation once ” there is a full daily candlestick above the channel and not touching the upper trend line”. SIlver did breach the channel to form a green candle but touched downward sloping trend line. What conclusion one should draw with that? You still expect it to go up?
That is why I am so clear on what a breach is.
The candlestick for 5th February has overshot the channel, but not clearly breached it. I want to see a clear breach before I have confidence in the targets.
I still expect it to go up, there is no difference in my expectation of direction.
The channel breach would provide confidence in the wave count.
2/3/2014
Dear Lara,
Greetings!
I’m a little confused. Minute wave c is over (right?) and we are in a subsequent minute wave ii correction still? Or do you see wave iii started?
Thanks for your clarification on this.
silver will be updated next week.
the probability of movement below 18.585 is very low.
Hi Lara,
Great work! is there any chance silver can break down below 18.84 and if so what is your work suggest next short term outlook.
Thanks.
Hi Lara.
Minute wave ii appears to be an expanded flat. As such, Minuette wave (c) normally should be about 1.618 of Minuette wave (a). It should end closer to 18.84.
Regards
Alan Tham
Yes, you are correct.
My target was based upon the shorter term structure for the ending contracting diagonal. But it’s moved lower than my target.
I suspect the diagonal may have been only subminuette wave i within minuette wave (c), which means there is a fourth wave correction and then a final fifth wave down to new lows yet to come. Which means you target calculation at 18.84 is probably spot on.