A third wave up was expected and this is what happened.

The wave count remains the same.

Summary: Overall upwards movement should continue with corrections along the way. The target at 1,297 may be met within 24 hours after a small downwards correction. The target at 1,330 is still a few days away. The invalidation point can now be moved up to 1,272.18. The orange channel on the hourly chart should provide support for downwards corrections.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete. To see a full explanation of my reasoning for expecting that primary wave 4 is not over and is continuing see this.

Movement above 1,277.97 has provided confirmation that primary wave 4 is not over. This upwards movement cannot be a fourth wave correction within primary wave 5 as it has now moved into what would be its counterpart first wave price territory. The wave down from the high labeled intermediate wave (W) to the low labeled intermediate wave (X) is now confirmed as a three wave structure. Primary wave 5 cannot subdivide as a three, it can only subdivide as a five.

Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat correction, and was a deep 68% correction of primary wave 1. In order to show alternation in structure primary wave 4 may be a zigzag, double zigzag, combination, triangle or even an expanded flat. We can rule out a zigzag because the first wave subdivides as a three. This still leaves several structural possibilities.

Primary wave 4 is most likely to be a combination or triangle in order to show structural alternation with the running flat of primary wave 2.

Primary wave 4 is most likely to be a combination rather than a double zigzag because of the depth of intermediate wave (X). Double combinations take up time and move price sideways, and their X waves can be very deep. Double zigzags are different because their purpose is to deepen a correction when the first zigzag does not move price deep enough, so their X waves are not normally very deep. Thus intermediate wave (Y) is most likely to be a flat correction, less likely a triangle and least likely a zigzag. It is most likely to end about the same level as intermediate wave (W) at 1,434 so that the whole structure moves sideways. It may last about 43 to 89 days, depending upon what structure it takes.

If intermediate wave (Y) is a flat correction then within it minor wave B must retrace a minimum of 90% the length of minor wave A, and it may make a new low below 1,180.84.

If intermediate wave (Y) is a flat correction then within it minor wave A must subdivide as a three wave structure. At this stage minor wave A is unfolding as a zigzag because minute wave a within it completed as a leading diagonal which is a five wave structure. At 1,330 minute wave c would reach equality in length with minute wave a.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.

Draw a channel about the zigzag of minor wave A: draw the first trend line from the start of minute wave a to the end of minute wave b, then place a parallel copy upon the end of minute wave a. Downwards corrections along the way up should continue to find support at the lower edge of the channel, and upwards movement may end at the upper edge of the channel.

Upwards movement continued and upwards momentum has increased further; this is clearly a third wave. The short term target is not quite reached, but the structure for minuette wave (iii) is incomplete. The target may be reached within the next 24 hours.

Draw a parallel channel about this upwards impulse. Draw the first trend line from the highs of subminuette waves i to iii, then place a parallel copy upon the low of subminuette wave ii. I would expect subminuette wave iv to find support at the lower edge of the channel if it gets down that far. The upper edge of the channel may be where minuette wave (iii) ends.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves i and iii.

Ratios within subminuette wave iii are: micro wave 3 is 2.12 longer than 1.618 the length of micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 has no Fibonacci ratio to either of micro waves 1 or 3.

Ratios within micro wave 3 are: submicro wave (3) has no Fibonacci ratio to submicro wave (1), and submicro wave (5) is 0.50 longer than 0.382 the length of submicro wave (3).

The mid term target remains the same. At 1,330 minute wave c would reach equality in length with minute wave a. When minuette waves (iii) and (iv) are complete I will add to this target calculation at minuette wave degree, so it may widen to a small zone or it may change.

Subminuette wave iv may not move into subminuette wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,272.18.

Alternate Daily Wave Count – Triangle.

It is also possible that primary wave 4 may continue as a regular contracting (or barrier) triangle.

The expected direction of this next upwards wave is the same, but for this alternate intermediate wave (C) of the triangle may not move beyond the end of intermediate wave (A). The triangle is invalidated with movement above 1,438.83.

Intermediate wave (C) must unfold as either a single or double zigzag. Within it no second wave correction, nor wave B of the zigzag, may move beyond the start of the first wave or A wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,180.84.

The final intermediate wave (E) upwards may not move above the end of intermediate wave (C) for both a contracting and barrier triangle. E waves most commonly end short of the A-C trend line.

All five subwaves of a triangle must divide into corrective structures. If this next upwards movement subdivides as a zigzag which does not make a new high above 1,438.83 then this alternate would be correct.

Triangles take up time and move price sideways. If primary wave 4 unfolds as a triangle then I would expect it to last months rather than weeks.