Price whipsawed to breach the invalidation points on both hourly wave counts. The situation is still unclear.
Summary: In the short term I expect to see some more upwards movement. It may end about 1,308 or it may continue higher. If we see a new high above 1,331.29 then I would expect price to continue higher to 1,355.
This analysis is published about 6:25 p.m. EST. Click on charts to enlarge.
Main Wave Count.
Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete.
Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat. Primary wave 4 is unlikely to be a flat correction because it is likely to show structural alternation with primary wave 2.
Primary wave 4 is most likely to be completing as a double combination: zigzag – X – second structure. The second structure labeled intermediate wave (Y) is most likely to be a flat correction. Within the flat correction minor wave B must reach a minimum 90% the length of minor wave A at 1,201.98.
Overall the structure for primary wave 4 should take up time and move price sideways, and the second structure should end about the same level as the first at 1,434. Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.
Within intermediate wave (Y) minor wave B downwards is an incomplete corrective structure, and at this stage the structure fits best as an incomplete double zigzag. Minor wave B should continue for a few more weeks and may make a new low below 1,180, and is reasonably likely to do so in coming weeks.
Within minor wave B minute wave w lasted 11 days and minute wave x lasted 9 days. So far minute wave y has lasted 8 days and it still has a long way down to go. It looks like it will be longer lasting than minute wave w. It may last a total Fibonacci 13 or 21 days.
Minute wave x is still most likely complete as a single zigzag. Minute wave y has most likely begun. Minute wave y must subdivide as a zigzag to take price down to 1,201.98 or below.
Downwards movement during Thursday’s session fits nicely as the end of a three wave zigzag downwards. This is followed by upwards movement which should complete a five and end at least slightly above 1,307.19.
Within minute wave y recent movement, which is very choppy and overlapping, may have been minuette wave (b) within it. This does not look like a smaller degree second wave.
Minuette wave (b) is an almost complete expanded flat correction. Within it subminuette wave a subdivides clearly as a three, and subminuette wave b downwards is also clearly a three with a triangle in the middle. At 1,308 subminuette wave c would reach 1.618 the length of subminuette wave a.
Minuette wave (b) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a) above 1,331.29. This invalidation point will not change as minuette wave (b) cannot move higher.
Alternate Wave Count.
Alternatively, minute wave x may still be an incomplete expanded flat correction.
Minor wave B downwards is still seen here as a double zigzag: zigzag – X – zigzag. The purpose of double zigzags is to deepen a correction when the first zigzag does not move price deep enough, so this structure would be able to take price down to 1,201.98 or below.
This alternate still has a lower probability than the main wave count because if minute wave x continues higher for a few days it would be substantially longer in duration than minute wave w. This would be unusual for an X wave within a double zigzag, and reduces the probability of this wave count.
There is no upper invalidation point because there is no minimum or maximum requirement for an X wave. However, X waves within double zigzags are normally shallow as this one would be. The only requirement is that an X wave be a corrective structure.
Within the possible flat correction minuette wave (b) is now a 117% correction of minute wave (a), which indicates an expanded flat. At 1,355 minuette wave (c) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (a).
If price reached up to 1,380.82 or above then I would relabel minor wave B in its entirety as a flat correction.
Minuette wave (c) must subdivide as a five wave structure. Within minuette wave (c) subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i below 1,268.52.