Upwards movement reached 1,314.48, just 1.48 above the short term target of 1,313 for the main hourly wave count.
Summary: The structure of this upwards movement is clearer: it is an unfolding zigzag. This expects overall a clearer upwards trend. This should continue for about two more weeks. In the very short term I am expecting downwards movement for a small correction which may last about three to five days. This is a correction against the trend as the trend at minute degree is up.
This analysis is published about 04:45 p.m. EST. Click on charts to enlarge.
Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete.
Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat. Primary wave 4 is unlikely to be a flat correction because it is likely to show structural alternation with primary wave 2.
Primary wave 4 is most likely to be completing as a double combination: zigzag – X – second structure. The second structure labeled intermediate wave (Y) is most likely to be a flat correction. Within the flat correction minor wave B must reach a minimum 90% the length of minor wave A at 1,201.98.
Overall the structure for primary wave 4 should take up time and move price sideways, and the second structure should end about the same level as the first at 1,434. Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.
Primary wave 4 may also be a large contracting triangle, but at this stage this idea does not have the “right look” and so I will not publish a chart for it. I will continue to follow this idea and will publish a chart in coming weeks for it if it shows itself to be correct. At this stage there is no divergence between wave counts for a triangle or a double combination.
This main wave count follows the idea that minor wave B may be unfolding as a flat correction. Within the flat correction minute wave a subdivides as a single zigzag. Minute wave b within the flat must reach a minimum of 90% the length of minute wave a at 1,380.82.
Minute wave b is most likely to subdivide as a single or double zigzag in order to reach 1,380.82. The first wave up should subdivide as a five and it is now complete.
Ratios within minuette wave (a) are: subminuette wave iii is 2.07 short of 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v has no adequate Fibonacci ratio to either of subminuette waves iii or i.
Use Elliott’s first technique to draw a channel about minuette wave (a): draw the first trend line from the highs of subminuette waves i to iii, then place a parallel copy upon the low of subminuette wave ii. When this channel is clearly breached by downwards movement we shall have confirmation that minuette wave (a) is over and minuette wave (b) is underway.
Because subminuette waves ii and iv show on the daily chart as red candlesticks I would expect minuette wave (b) one degree higher to also clearly show on the daily chart. Minuette wave (a) lasted five days. Minuette wave (b) may last about three to five days to be in proportion.
I will use the Fibonacci ratios of minuette wave (a) as a guideline to where minuette wave (b) may end, favouring the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio at 1,291.81.
There are more than thirteen corrective structures that minuette wave (b) may unfold as. It may be a clear downwards zigzag, or it may be a very choppy overlapping flat, triangle or combination. It may include a new high above its start at 1,314.48.
This downwards B wave is a low degree correction against the current short term upwards trend.
Alternate Hourly Wave Count.
This alternate wave count follows the idea that minor wave B may be unfolding as a double zigzag. The first zigzag downwards is labeled minute wave w. The double should be joined by a “three” in the opposite direction which may subdivide as any corrective structure labeled minute wave x.
Minute wave x may be unfolding as a zigzag. At this stage the only difference between the two hourly wave counts is the expectation of where this current short term upwards trend may end; there is no minimum requirement for X waves so this alternate does not require movement to 1,380.82.
If a zigzag completes upwards which falls short of 1,380.82 then this alternate wave count would be correct.