The main Elliott wave count from yesterday expected the start of downwards movement. A breach of 1,314.19 confirmed the main wave count and invalidated the alternate.
Summary: It is very likely today that a B wave downwards has begun. It should last about three weeks and may be very choppy and overlapping. It may include a new high above 1,326.02, but if that happens it should not be for a few days yet. The minor degree trend is down. There is a smaller possibility of a new high to 1,330 before the B wave begins.
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Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete.
Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat. Primary wave 4 is unlikely to be a flat correction because it is likely to show structural alternation with primary wave 2.
This wave count expects primary wave 4 is a huge triangle. The triangle is now within the final wave of intermediate wave (E) which should subdivide as a zigzag.
Intermediate wave (E) is most likely to fall short of the (A) – (C) trend line. It may also overshoot this trend line, but that is less common.
Within the zigzag of intermediate wave (E) minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A at 1,240.51.
So far within primary wave 4 intermediate wave (A) lasted 43 days (no Fibonacci relationship), intermediate wave (B) lasted 88 days (just one day short of a Fibonacci 89), intermediate wave (C) lasted 53 days (just two days short of a Fibonacci 55) and intermediate wave (D) lasted 56 days (just one day more than a Fibonacci 55). If intermediate wave (E) exhibits a Fibonacci relationship then I would expect it to last either 34 or 55 days (give or take one or two days either side of these numbers). So far it has lasted only 16 days.
Main Hourly Wave Count.
It is most likely that minor wave A is now over and minor wave B downwards has begun. However, the first small downwards wave from the high at 1,326.02 is a three and not a five. This could only be a first wave zigzag of a leading diagonal. Because leading diagonals are less common than impulses I am considering the alternate idea below.
If minor wave B has begun then within it minute wave a may be subdividing as a leading diaogonal. Minuette wave (ii) is 0.95 the length of minuette wave (i), which is longer than the maximum common length of 0.88.
Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i) above 1,326.02.
At 1,292 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (a).
Movement below 1,315.48 would invalidate the alternate below and provide confidence in this main wave count.
Alternate Hourly Wave Count.
I have moved the degree of labeling within the triangle down one degree. If this wave minuette wave (iv) then upwards movement may not be yet complete. However, I would not expect too much more upwards movement if we see a new high above 1,326.02.
This wave count has a lower probability than the main wave count: minuette waves (ii) and (iv) are disproportionate with minuette wave (ii) lasting only 14 hours and not showing on the daily chart, and minuette wave (iv) lasting 55 hours and showing on the daily chart.
Minute waves ii and iv are also disproportionate: minute wave ii lasted 29 hours and minute wave iv lasted 14 hours, although they both show on the daily chart.
At 1,330 minuette wave (v) within minute wave v would reach equality in length with minuette wave (i).
At 1,333 minute wave v would reach 0.618 the length of minute wave i.
This gives a $3 target zone calculated at two wave degrees.
This analysis is published about 05:03 p.m. EST.