Last analysis expected that upwards movement was over and price should move lower. Price moved higher first, but remains below the invalidation point. Since reaching a high at 104.49 price has turned downwards.
Summary: I expect to see an increase in downwards momentum from Oil. The short term target at 88.17 may be met in about three or four weeks.
Click on charts to enlarge.
The daily chart shows all of the start of cycle wave c downwards.
Minor wave 1 subdivides perfectly as an impulse and minor wave 2 as an expanded flat correction, which is a 66% correction of minor wave 1.
At 72.53 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. Minor wave 1 lasted 65 days, and I would expect minor wave 3 to be extended so longer in duration. It may last a total Fibonacci 89 days, but at this stage that expectation looks like it may be too soon.
At 84.00 minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i. Minute wave iii so far looks like it will be extended both in time and price. Minute wave i lasted 10 days and minute wave iii may last a Fibonacci 55 days in total.
At 88.17 minuette wave (iii) would reach 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i). Minuette wave (i) lasted 11 days and minuette wave (ii) lasted 18 days. If minuette wave (iii) is extended in both time and price it may end in another three to four weeks.
I have redrawn the base channel about minor waves 1 and 2. The third wave down should have enough momentum to break through support at the lower edge of the channel.
Within minuette wave (iii) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 104.49.
That is correct.
The wave count changed significantly with that invalidation. Look at the next US Oil analysis.
It seems that we are not in minuette wave (III) as the price moved to 104.54, is that right?
Now that we are in the so called trader’s sweet spot of a 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd, are you planning a bit more regular updates?
I suspect ‘oil’ is not one of you more commonly watched analyses, but again, right now it ought to be. The trader’s sweet spot does not come along every day.
Keep up the good work and thank you,
Thank you for pointing out the 3 of 3 of 3.
Yes, indeed I am.
I’ll get Oil updated at least once a week, and if I see strong movement I might put up just a chart in between.
I know I’ve been a bit slack on the oil and silver updates recently. Its what I do to try and have a wee break, so I don’t get too jaded with all the analysis.
You know Lara, after I wrote the comment I looked back more thoroughly and discovered you have issued three analyses in the last three weeks. That is frequent enough for me. If something major happens etc, you can report that in between. I also think when we are waiting for certain waves to complete it is not necessary to do daily or even weekly analyses.
So thanks for what you do post. It is greatly helpful.