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The main Elliott wave count expected upwards movement in the short term to show an increase in momentum. The short term target was at 1,310. Price moved strongly higher as expected, so far up to 1,309.74.

Summary: Today I have just one wave count for you. Upwards movement should continue for about a further thirteen days. There will be one more correction along the way up for a fourth wave which should last one to a few days, and the target for that to arrive is 1,327.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

Primary wave 4 is an incomplete regular contracting triangle. Primary wave 2 was a deep 68% running flat correction. Primary wave 4 is showing alternation in depth and some alternation in structure.

Within the triangle of primary wave 4 intermediate wave (E) is unfolding as a zigzag: minor wave A is a five wave impulse and minor wave B downwards is a zigzag. I have drawn a corrective channel about minor wave B downwards. This channel is breached by a strong green candlestick confirming minor wave B is over and minor wave C upwards has begun. The upper edge of this channel may now provide some support for downwards corrections within minor wave C.

Because there is a clear triangle within this downwards wave of minor wave B, this movement cannot be a new impulse to the downside because a triangle may not be the sole corrective structure in a second wave position. The position of this triangle indicates strongly that intermediate wave (E) is incomplete.

Within minor wave C no second wave correction may move beyond its start below 1,280.35.

Intermediate wave (E) may not move beyond the end of intermediate wave (C) above 1,392.30.

I can see another alternate possibility today. If primary wave 4 is over at the high labeled minor wave A within intermediate wave (E) then it is possible that primary wave 5 has began with a leading diagonal in a first wave position which would be complete, and this would be followed by a very deep second wave correction just begun. However, leading diagonals in first wave positions are not very common. This alternate idea is possible, but I judge it to have a very low probability, maybe as low as 5%. I will only publish this idea if the black (B)-(D) trend line is clearly breached.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2014

I have moved the degree of labeling within the first wave up one degree to minute. I expect we are most likely seeing a very extended third wave. At 1,327 minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i. This looks about right on the daily chart given the target for minor wave C to end just above 1,345.22.

Within minute wave iii I expect that minuette wave (i) is incomplete. When it is done we may see minuette wave (ii) show on the daily chart as a red candlestick; the subdivisions within an extended third wave have a tendency to be more long lasting and show clearly on the daily chart.

Within minuette wave (i) the third wave is incomplete. At 1,317 subminuette wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of subminuette wave i.

Within subminuette wave iii micro wave 2 was a deep 88% expanded flat correction. Micro wave 4 may be completing as a very shallow triangle, showing alternation with micro wave 2. When micro wave 4 is over then micro wave 5 should move upwards towards the short term target at 1,317 for subminuette wave iii.

Subminuette wave iv may not move into subminuette wave i price territory below 1,294.09. I would not expect subminuette wave iv to show up on the daily chart as a red candlestick because subminuette wave ii did not.

I expect to see another, smaller, green candlestick for Thursday’s session.

I have drawn two channels on this hourly chart. The first pink channel is a base channel drawn about minute waves i and ii. Downwards corrections should now find support at the upper pink trend line.

The second channel is a best fit channel about minuette wave (i). Keep redrawing this channel as price moves higher. Draw the first trend line from the high of subminuett wave i to wherever subminuette wave iii ends, then place a parallel copy on the low of micro wave 2. When subminuette wave iii is complete and subminuette wave iv arrives the lower edge of this channel should show where subminuette wave iv would find support.

This analysis is published about 05:23 p.m. EST.