Downwards movement has continued as expected. The wave count remains the same.

Summary: The target remains at 74.53. This target may be 13 weeks away.

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US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2014

Upwards movement has hit the upper teal trend line. Since price bounced down from that trend line this provides some confidence in this main wave count.

The one thing which looks most certain in this wave count is cycle wave a downwards is a five wave impulse. This means cycle wave b may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a above 146.73. Cycle wave b should subdivide as a three wave structure and is labeled as a double zigzag, which should now be complete.

Within the double zigzag this wave count sees primary wave X as a regular contracting triangle, ending at 84.07 where intermediate wave (E) typically undershot the B-D trend line.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

It looks like the first five down within intermediate wave (3) is complete.

Ratios within minor wave 1 are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves iii and i, and minute wave v is 0.67 longer than 2.618 the length of minute wave i.

Within minor wave 1 minute wave ii is a deep 92% regular flat correction and minute wave iv is a more shallow 58% zigzag showing good alternation.

I have drawn a parallel channel about minor wave 1 using Elliott’s second technique: draw the first trend line from the ends of minute waves ii to iv, then place a parallel copy on the end of minute wave iii. When this pink channel is clearly breached by upwards movement that shall provide trend channel confirmation that minor wave 1 is over and minor wave 2 is underway.

At this early stage minor wave 2 is unconfirmed.

If minor wave 2 has begun here then it may end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1 at 103.28.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 107.67.

The target for intermediate wave (3) remains at 74.53 where it would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). Intermediate wave (1) lasted 13 weeks and intermediate wave (2) lasted 28 weeks. I would expect intermediate wave (3) may last a Fibonacci 21 weeks. So far it is in its 8th week so it may continue for another 13 weeks.