Select Page

Click on charts to enlarge.

NZDUSD weekly 2014

The first thing I have some confidence in for this Elliott wave count is the structure of primary wave 1 downwards as a five. This indicates a trend change at the high of 0.88435.

Primary wave 1 subdivides as a leading expanding diagonal (albeit with a shorter than expected fifth wave). Leading diagonals in first wave positions are commonly followed by very deep second wave corrections. Primary wave 2 is likely to be over is a deep 93% correction of primary wave 1.

Primary wave 2 subdivides as a double zigzag. The second zigzag has deepened the correction and primary wave 2 slopes upwards.

I have drawn a best fit channel about primary wave 2. When this channel is breached by a full weekly candlestick below the lower trend line and not touching it, then I would have full and final confidence that the Kiwi should move to new lows. At that stage a third wave would be underway.

The Elliott wave chart clearly at this stage shows that a third wave has begun. My short term analysis of the Kiwi will focus on looking for the next second wave correction, and because this is within a primary degree third wave it could be more brief and shallow than normal.

At 0.63631 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1.

Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 above 0.88435.

NZDUSD daily 2014

So far there has not been a sizeable second wave correction. Minute wave ii does show up on the weekly chart, so I am confident that this labeling is correct.

At 0.79942 minuette wave (iii) will reach 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

At 0.78213 minute wave iii will reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory above 0.84087.

NZDUSD daily 2014

I do other technical analysis for the Kiwi, mostly a lot of trend line work. This is my current trend line chart for the Kiwi. I expect the next level of support just above 0.79000. Until then I expect to see the Kiwi continue its free fall.