Last Elliott wave analysis expected a little downwards movement which is not what happened. Upwards movement continued, and a new high above 1,219.14 has invalidated the alternate wave count. I have just the one Elliott wave count for you today.
Summary: Gold is confirmed as within an intermediate degree correction trending upwards. The short term target for a minute degree third wave up is 1,243.
Click on charts to enlarge.
On the weekly chart extend the triangle trend lines of primary wave 4 outwards. The point in time at which they cross over may be the point in time at which primary wave 5 ends. This does not always work, but it works often enough to look out for. It is a rough guideline only and not definitive. A trend line placed from the end of primary wave 4 to the target of primary wave 5 at this point in time shows primary wave 5 would take a total 26 weeks to reach that point, and that is what I will expect. Primary wave 5 is beginning its 13th week.
At 956.97 primary wave 5 would reach equality in length with primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 is $12.54 short of 1.618 the length of primary wave 1, and equality between primary waves 5 and 1 would give a perfect Elliott relationship for this downwards movement.
However, when triangles take their time and move close to the apex of the triangle, as primary wave 4 has (looking at this on a weekly chart is clearer) the movement following the triangle is often shorter and weaker than expected. If the target at 956.97 is wrong it may be too low. In the first instance I expect it is extremely likely that primary wave 5 will move at least below the end of primary wave 3 at 1,180.40 to avoid a truncation. When intermediate waves (1) through to (4) within primary wave 5 are complete I will recalculate the target at intermediate degree because this would have a higher accuracy. I cannot do that yet; I can only calculate it at primary degree.
Movement comfortably below 1,180.84 would provide further confidence in this main wave count as at that stage an alternate idea which sees primary wave 4 as continuing as a barrier triangle would be invalidated.
Draw a channel about intermediate wave (1): draw the first trend line from the lows labeled minor waves 1 to 3, then place a copy on the high labeled minor wave 2. The slight overshoot of the lower edge of this channel indicates minor wave 5 may be over there. Intermediate wave (2) should breach the upper edge of this channel.
Intermediate wave (2) may end close to a Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1). Only because second waves are more commonly deep than shallow is the 0.618 ratio at 1,280.80 slightly favoured. But it does not have to be this deep. When I know where minor waves A and B within this correction have ended then a target should be calculated using the ratio between minor waves A and C.
Intermediate wave (2) is most likely to be a zigzag, but it may also be one of several other possible corrective structures. Due to the large degree the first movement should be a five up. Within this first five up no second wave correction should move beyond the start of the first wave below 1,183.06.
Minute wave i was incomplete and moved higher. This was followed by a brief zigzag down for minute wave ii. Minute wave iii upwards looks like it has begun, and at 1,243 it would reach equality in length with minute wave i and would end close to the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1) which is at 1.242.56.
Ratios within minute wave i are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (i) and (iii), and minuette wave (v) is 0.53 longer than 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i).
Minuette wave (ii) is a shallow 36% zigzag and minuette wave (iv) is a more shallow 16% triangle. There is perfect alternation, but imperfect proportion. Triangles do tend to be more time consuming than zigzags.
Ratios within minuette wave (iii) are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves iii and i, and subminuette wave v is 0.42 short of 0.382 the length of subminuette wave iii.
I have drawn a base channel about minute waves i and ii. Minute wave iii upwards should show an increase in momentum and should have the power to break above resistance at the upper edge of the channel. Along the way up downwards corrections should find support at the lower edge of the channel.
Within minute wave iii no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 1,205.05.
This analysis is published about 05:08 p.m. EST.
I was wondering if there was a chance that minute wave 2 is not over and is continuing as an expanded flat. What do you think?
Thanks for your great work!
Yes, it is possible. But it has a low probability.
The B wave of that potential expanded flat would be 180% the length of the A wave. The normal length is between 100% to 138%. With it quite a lot longer than normal that must reduce the probability.
If price moves below the invalidation point on the hourly chart then yes, this is the wave count I would expect.
I’ll be updating this today or tomorrow. No thoughts as yet, but it was somewhat expected. I’ll be trying to figure out if its minute iv or minor 2.
Any thoughts on GDX Lara??
Congrats on your 30 Sept silver and gdx chart targets.
I had concerns–especially gdx. Took a tremendous up move for gdx but your 30 Sept silver and gdx chart targets are proving correct.
Brilliant! You’re welcome.