Upwards movement was expected for a correction.

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GDX monthly 2014

The clearest piece of movement is the downwards movement from the high. This looks like either a complete five down, or an almost complete five down (if the fifth wave is incomplete). This may be the start of a larger correction. However, I am concerned (after my experience with AAPL) that GDX may not have enough volume for its waves to look always or almost always clearly like threes or fives. I do not have complete confidence that the invalidation point at 66.98 may not be passed.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between intermediate waves (3) and (1) (I checked again, and my last analysis was wrong on this point).

Within intermediate wave (3) there are no Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

Ratios within minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $2.19 longer than 0.618 the length of minute wave i.

Ratios within minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $0.63 longer than 0.382 the length of minute wave iii.

There is alternation between a deep expanded flat for intermediate wave (2) and a very shallow zigzag for intermediate wave (4).

At 14.13 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality with intermediate wave (1).

I have played with how to best draw a channel about this downwards movement, which does not fit perfectly into a channel drawn using either of Elliott’s techniques but does fit best if his first technique is used: draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy on the high of intermediate wave (2).

GDX daily 2014

Minor wave 1 lasted 83 sessions. I would expect minor wave 2 to last a few weeks. So far it has lasted 16 sessions. It may end in a total Fibonacci 21 or even 34 sessions.

Within it minute wave b may look like a clear three on the daily chart. If minute wave a has subdivided as a five wave impulse as labelled then minute wave b may not move beyond the start of minute wave a below 16.45.

Thereafter, minute wave c upwards would be highly likely to make a new high above the end of minute wave a at 20.42 to avoid a truncation. It would be most likely to end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1 at 23.45.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 27.78. If this price point is passed I would use the alternate below.

Alternate Wave Count

GDX daily alternate 2014

For GDX it is possible that primary wave A is over.

If primary wave A is a complete five wave impulse downwards, then there are no Fiboancci ratio between intermediate waves (1), (3) and (5). However, this is only slightly unusual for GDX in my short experience with this specific market.

If primary wave A is over then within the new upwards trend no second wave may move below the start of its first wave at 16.45.

This alternate would be confirmed when the main wave count is invalidated with a new high above 27.78.