A small green candlestick fits the Elliott wave count. Downwards movement is finding support about the lower edge of the green base channel on the hourly chart.
Summary: Momentum may not show a strong increase for another day or so. The trend remains up, and the short term target at 1,251 may be a few days away.
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Primary wave 4 is complete and primary wave 5 is unfolding. Primary wave 5 may only subdivide as an impulse or an ending diagonal. So far it looks most likely to be an impulse.
Within primary wave 5 intermediate wave (1) fits perfectly as an impulse. There is perfect alternation within intermediate wave (1): minor wave 2 is a deep zigzag lasting a Fibonacci five days and minor wave 4 is a shallow triangle lasting a Fibonacci eight days, 1.618 the duration of minor wave 2. Minor wave 3 is 9.65 longer than 1.618 the length of minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is just 0.51 short of 0.618 the length of minor wave 1. I am confident this movement is one complete impulse.
Intermediate wave (2) is an incomplete expanded flat correction. Within it minor wave A is a double zigzag. The downwards wave labelled minor wave B has a corrective count of seven and subdivides perfectly as a zigzag. Minor wave B is a 172% correction of minor wave A. This is longer than the maximum common length for a B wave within a flat correction at 138%, but within the allowable range of less than twice the length of minor wave A. Minor wave C may not exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to minor wave A, and I think the target for it to end would best be calculated at minute degree. At this stage I would expect intermediate wave (2) to end close to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1) just below 1,281.
Within minor wave C minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i at 1,272. Within minute wave iii minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i) at 1,251.
Intermediate wave (1) lasted a Fibonacci 13 weeks. So far intermediate wave (2) is ending its sixth week. I will expect it may continue for another two weeks at least to total a Fibonacci eight, and be 0.618 the duration of intermediate wave (1). However, it may be a little longer in duration than this.
The target for primary wave 5 at this stage remains the same. At 956.97 it would reach equality in length with primary wave 1. However, if this target is wrong it may be too low. When intermediate waves (1) through to (4) within it are complete I will calculate the target at intermediate degree and if it changes it may move upwards. This is because waves following triangles tend to be more brief and weak than otherwise expected. A perfect example is on this chart: minor wave 5 to end intermediate wave (1) was particularly short and brief after the triangle of minor wave 4.
Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) above 1,345.22. I have confidence this price point will not be passed because the structure of primary wave 5 is incomplete because downwards movement from the end of the triangle of primary wave 4 does not fit as either a complete impulse nor an ending diagonal.
Draw a base channel about minor wave C: draw the first trend line from the start of minute wave i to the end of minute wave ii, then place a parallel copy on the end of minute wave i. Copy this pink channel over carefully to hourly charts. Minute wave iii should have the power to break above the upper edge of this channel. Along the way up downwards corrections should find support and not break below the lower edge of this channel. Base channels almost always work like this (note, almost always is not the same as always).
To see a prior example of an expanded flat correction for Gold on the daily chart, and an explanation of this structure, go here.
So far within minute wave iii minuette waves (i) and (ii) are complete. The middle of a third wave has begun.
Within the middle of this third wave I expect now that its first wave is incomplete because we are not seeing a clear strong increase in upwards momentum and new highs yet. Within minuette wave (iii) I expect that subminuette wave i is incomplete.
Within subminuette wave i micro waves 1 and 2 are complete. Within micro wave 3 sub micro waves (1) and (2) are complete. I have checked the subdivisions of sub micro waves carefully on the five minute chart and I think sub micro wave (1) ended with a truncated fifth wave, which then sees sub micro wave (2) as a perfect zigzag.
I am leaving the invalidation point at 1,175.18 to allow for the possibility that micro wave 2 may continue further sideways as a double combination. It may not move beyond the start of micro wave 1 below 1,175.18.
Downwards movement is finding support close to the lower edge of the green base channel drawn about minuette waves (i) and (ii). This may continue to work while subminuette wave i completes. When subminuette wave i is over then subminuette wave ii may not move beyond its start below 1,175.18. The invalidation point will remain at this point for this reason.
Once subminuette waves i and ii are over then I will expect to see a strong increase in upwards momentum as the middle of this third wave passes. It may be that upwards momentum begins to pick up when the upper edge of the pink base channel is properly and clearly breached.
This analysis is published about 03:04 p.m. EST.