Because some members are concerned (with good reason) that the main Elliott wave count may be wrong and that Gold may plummet lower next week invalidating it, I have considered what if this happens. What would that wave count look like? Below is my alternate for this scenario.
Summary: A new low below 1,131.09 would be required to confirm this alternate. Prior to that I consider it to have a very low probability, less than 10%. If it is confirmed then it expects a strong increase in downward momentum as a third wave within a third wave moves lower to a target at 993.
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This wave count is identical to the main wave count right up to the end of intermediate wave (1). Thereafter, it moves the degree of labelling within intermediate wave (2) up one degree to see it as a complete double zigzag. This would see intermediate wave (2) as rather brief at only 11 days, and more shallow than second waves usually are at only 45% of intermediate wave (1). This is entirely possible, just a little unusual.
Thereafter, intermediate wave (3) could have begun. At 993 it would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). Intermediate wave (3) should show a clear strong increase in downwards momentum, should break below the black base channel about intermediate waves (1) and (2), and then stay below it.
Within intermediate wave (3) so far minor waves 1 and now probably 2 should be over. Minor wave 1 does not fit well as an impulse, and its downwards movement fits better as a zigzag. However, it is possible to label it as an impulse and I have checked the subdivisions carefully on the hourly chart.
Minor wave 2 is another double zigzag, lasting 10 days and exactly 0.618 of minor wave 1. This would normally be perfect for a second wave correction, but in this instance a second wave within a third wave one degree higher may be expected to be a bit more brief and shallow than this. The strong downwards pull of an intermediate degree third wave should force second wave corrections to be more brief and shallow. However, it does remain within the base channel of intermediate waves (1) and (2) so this is possible. Sometimes early on within strong third waves their second waves can be time consuming and deep, before momentum builds.
Within minor wave 3 no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 1,207.95. If this price point is passed next week this wave count would be invalidated and I would have increased confidence in the targets for the main wave count.
If 1,131.09 is breached next week then this is the wave count I would use. It fits kind of okay, but it has too many problems for it to be considered as a main wave count.
Expecting the Swiss referendum to move the Gold market is a fundamental analysis approach. Elliott wave analysis is mutually exclusive to fundamental analysis. The Elliott wave principle states that it is social mood which is expressed by market movement. It is social mood (which is expressed in market movement) which decides the result of the Swiss referendum, not the Swiss referendum which determines market movement. The difference is important, and I know it is a very unpopular way to view markets at this time.
Overall, I consider this alternate to have a lower probability than the main count because:
1. Intermediate wave (2) is relatively shallow, and more shallow than minor wave 2 one degree lower. It should be the other way around.
2. Minor wave 1 does not subdivide as well as an impulse as it does as a zigzag. Within it minute wave i looks like a three on the daily chart, and it should be a five.
3. Minor wave 2 is too long in duration, and is almost as long as intermediate wave (2).
Members should do their own due diligence, and use their own preferred technical analysis tools in conjunction with my Elliott wave analysis. If your own technical analysis strongly favours one or the other direction then you may consider the corresponding wave count as more likely.
This analysis is published about 04:59 p.m. EST.