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Both hourly Elliott wave counts were invalidated by downwards movement. The Elliott wave count at the daily chart level remains almost the same.

And I have confidence in my labelling of intermediate wave (1) as over and intermediate wave (2) as incomplete.

Summary: Minute wave i was over and this downwards movement is minute wave ii. It is most likely to end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i at 1,159. When it is finally done a third wave up should begin.

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Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

Primary wave 4 is complete and primary wave 5 is unfolding. Primary wave 5 may only subdivide as an impulse or an ending diagonal. So far it looks most likely to be an impulse.

Within primary wave 5 intermediate wave (1) fits perfectly as an impulse. There is perfect alternation within intermediate wave (1): minor wave 2 is a deep zigzag lasting a Fibonacci five days and minor wave 4 is a shallow triangle lasting a Fibonacci eight days, 1.618 the duration of minor wave 2. Minor wave 3 is 9.65 longer than 1.618 the length of minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is just 0.51 short of 0.618 the length of minor wave 1. I am confident this movement is one complete impulse.

Intermediate wave (2) is an incomplete expanded flat correction. Within it minor wave A is a double zigzag. The downwards wave labelled minor wave B has a corrective count of seven and subdivides perfectly as a zigzag. Minor wave B is a 172% correction of minor wave A. This is longer than the maximum common length for a B wave within a flat correction at 138%, but within the allowable range of less than twice the length of minor wave A. Minor wave C may not exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to minor wave A, and I think the target for it to end would best be calculated at minute degree. At this stage I would expect intermediate wave (2) to end close to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1) just below 1,281.

Intermediate wave (1) lasted a Fibonacci 13 weeks. At this stage it does not look like intermediate wave (2) will be able to complete in just one more week to total a Fibonacci eight, and so it may continue now for another six weeks to total a Fibonacci 13 and be equal in duration with intermediate wave (1). Alternatively, intermediate wave (2) may not exhibit a Fibonacci ratio.

The target for primary wave 5 at this stage remains the same. At 956.97 it would reach equality in length with primary wave 1. However, if this target is wrong it may be too low. When intermediate waves (1) through to (4) within it are complete I will calculate the target at intermediate degree and if it changes it may move upwards. This is because waves following triangles tend to be more brief and weak than otherwise expected. A perfect example is on this chart: minor wave 5 to end intermediate wave (1) was particularly short and brief after the triangle of minor wave 4.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) above 1,345.22. I have confidence this price point will not be passed because the structure of primary wave 5 is incomplete because downwards movement from the end of the triangle of primary wave 4 does not fit as either a complete impulse nor an ending diagonal.

To see a prior example of an expanded flat correction for Gold on the daily chart, and an explanation of this structure, go here.

*Note: I am aware (thank you to members) that other Elliott wave analysts are calling now for the end of primary wave 5 at the low at 1,131. I am struggling to see how this downwards movement fits as a five wave impulse: I would label the second wave within it (labelled minor wave 2) intermediate wave (1), and the fourth wave intermediate wave (4) (labelled as a double zigzag for minor wave A). Thus a complete impulse down would have a second wave as a single zigzag and a fourth wave as a double zigzag, which would have inadequate alternation. Finally, the final fifth wave down would be where I have minor wave B within intermediate wave (2). This downwards wave has a cursory count of seven, and I do not think it subdivides as well as an impulse as it does as a zigzag. If any members come across a wave count showing possible subdivisions of a complete primary wave 5 I would be very curious to see it.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart 2014

Minute wave i was not unfolding as a leading contracting diagonal, and was already over earlier as an impulse.

Minute wave ii to follow it is unfolding as a double zigzag. The first structure in the double is a complete zigzag labelled minuette wave (w) which only managed to reach down to the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i. The second zigzag in the double is very close to completion, labelled minuette wave (y). Minuette wave (x) to join the two zigzags is a regular contracting triangle.

Within minuette wave (y) zigzag subminuette wave c would reach 2.618 the length of subminuette wave a at 1,162. This is very close to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave ii at 1,159 and so gives us a target zone of 3.

Minute wave ii may not move below the start of minute wave i below 1,131.09.

When minute wave ii is a completed correction then minute wave iii upwards should begin, must move beyond the end of minute wave i, and should show a strong increase in upwards momentum.

Minute wave i lasted seven days. Minute wave ii so far has lasted eight days. It is extremely likely that minute wave ii will end within the next 24 hours as this would give the wave count the right look in terms of proportion on the daily and hourly charts.

At the daily chart level it is extremely likely that minor wave C will move at least slightly above the end of minor wave A at 1,255.40 to avoid a truncation and a very rare running flat. It is not possible to see a five wave structure complete for minor wave C, and even if one could try to fit such a wave count in minor wave C would be enormously truncated, such a wave count would be ridiculous. I am confident that if my labelling of intermediate wave (1) is correct then minor wave C must move up further to complete intermediate wave (2).

This analysis is published about 03:17 p.m. EST.