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With the market moving higher than expected, I have updated hourly charts for you. We can use the confirmation / invalidation points to show which wave count is correct.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Main Hourly Wave Count

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart 2015

Subminuette wave b is now a 199% correction of subminuette wave a, and is just below the maximum allowable length of 200%. For this main wave count subminuette wave c must have begun, and within it no second wave correction may move beyond its start above 1,241.61.

This wave count requires a breach of the blue trend channel. A new low below 1,216.77 would confirm it. At 1,193 subminuette wave c would reach 2.618 the length of subminuette wave a.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart 2015

A new high above 1,241.61 at any time by any amount would confirm this alternate and invalidate the main wave count. At that stage I would expect that upwards movement should continue overall for a few days yet to at least 1,262.94.

When subminuette wave i is complete then the invalidation point must move down to its start at 1,204.65. A following second wave correction may show on the daily chart as one or more red candlesticks or doji.

This analysis is published about 1:03 a.m. EST.