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The second wave ended just short of the target at 1,225.15 by 0.99. Thereafter, upwards movement looks like a typical third wave.

Summary: The trend at minute, minor and intermediate degree remain up today, but this structure is getting close to completion. A small shallow fourth wave correction should show up on the daily chart as one to three red candlesticks or doji. Thereafter, a final short fifth wave up may take price up to touch or get very close to that maroon trend line.

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Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2015

Primary wave 4 is complete and primary wave 5 is unfolding. Primary wave 5 may only subdivide as an impulse or an ending diagonal. So far it looks most likely to be an impulse.

Within primary wave 5 intermediate wave (1) fits perfectly as an impulse. There is perfect alternation within intermediate wave (1): minor wave 2 is a deep zigzag lasting a Fibonacci five days and minor wave 4 is a shallow triangle lasting a Fibonacci eight days, 1.618 the duration of minor wave 2. Minor wave 3 is 9.65 longer than 1.618 the length of minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is just 0.51 short of 0.618 the length of minor wave 1. I am confident this movement is one complete impulse.

Intermediate wave (2) is a close to complete expanded flat correction. Within it minor wave A is a double zigzag. The downwards wave labelled minor wave B has a corrective count of seven and subdivides perfectly as a zigzag. Minor wave B is a 172% correction of minor wave A. This is longer than the maximum common length for a B wave within a flat correction at 138%, but within the allowable range of twice the length of minor wave A. Minor wave C may not exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to minor wave A. Minor wave C is extremely likely to move at least slightly above the end of minor wave A at 1,255.40 to avoid a truncation and a very rare running flat correction. It may end a little short of the upper maroon trend line (most likely) or it may end when price touches the upper edge of the maroon channel, copied over here from the weekly chart. To see how to draw this channel click here. I have created a parallel copy of this upper maroon trend line and pulled it down to sit right on the high of primary wave 4. Upwards movement for the last two candlesticks is extremely close to this trend line, and this is where a small correction began.

To see a prior example of an expanded flat correction for Gold on the daily chart, and an explanation of this structure, click here.

So far within minor wave C the highest volume is on four up days. This supports the idea that at this stage the trend remains up.

Minor wave C may be only subdivide as an impulse or an ending diagonal. With all the overlapping within it, an ending diagonal looks more likely, and it is now ending the final fifth wave up. The diagonal is expanding and the trend lines clearly diverge. Expect the final fifth wave of expanding diagonals to fall short of the i-iii trend line. Minute wave v is now longer than equality with minute wave iii which was achieved at 1,262.94. Minor wave C has moved above the end of minor wave A at 1,255.40 avoiding a truncation and a very rare running flat.

Within an ending diagonal all the sub waves must subdivide as zigzags. The fourth wave should overlap first wave price territory. The rule for the end of a fourth wave of a diagonal is it may not move beyond the end of the second wave.

The final zigzag up of minute wave v must be a clear zigzag on the daily chart, and must have a cursory count which is corrective. By this I mean 3, 7, 11… (adding multiples of 4 in series). So far it has a count of 5 which is impulsive (an impulsive count is 5, 9, 13…). It needs to complete a small shallow fourth wave correction, and then a final fifth wave up.

Within minute wave v minuette wave (c) has passed equality in length with minuette wave (a), and its structure is incomplete. Were it to continue until it is 1.618 the length of minuette wave (a) at 1,295 the maroon channel would be breached, and I do not expect it to be. Minuette waves (a) and (c) may not exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to each other, and the target for this upwards move to end would better be calculated at subminuette wave degree. I can only do that for you when subminuette wave iv is over, and it has not yet begun.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) above 1,345.22. I have confidence this price point will not be passed because the structure of primary wave 5 is incomplete because downwards movement from the end of the triangle of primary wave 4 does not fit well as either a complete impulse nor an ending diagonal. If it is seen as a complete impulse there would be inadequate alternation between the single zigzag of the second wave and the double zigzag of the fourth wave correction, and there would be no Fibonacci ratios between the first, third and fifth waves within it.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart 2015

My labelling of subminuette wave ii yesterday was wrong: micro wave A was shorter than I had it labelled as a single and not a double zigzag. Subminuette wave ii is still a regular flat correction, and micro wave B within it is a 102% correction of micro wave A. There is no Fibonacci ratio between micro waves A and C. Micro wave C ends below the end of micro wave A, and a truncation and a rare running flat was avoided.

When I look at subminuette wave iii on a five minute chart I see it beginning with at least two clear first and second waves labelled micro and submicro waves 1 and 2. It needs to complete the corresponding fourth wave corrections before a final fifth wave up. I expect current downwards movement is micro wave 4 which is incomplete. It may not move into micro wave 1 price territory below 1,229.06, but it shouldn’t get close to that point as it should be shallow because micro wave 2 was very deep.

Subminuette wave iii is now slightly longer than equality with subminuette wave i. It may not move too much higher so that it retains this ratio of equality. I expect micro wave 5 upwards to be relatively short. Because I do not know where micro wave 4 has ended, because it is incomplete, I cannot calculate a target up for subminuette wave iii for you.

I expect micro wave 5 to make new highs to complete subminuette wave iii, before subminuette wave iv begins.

I expect subminuette wave iv to be relatively shallow. It should show up on the daily chart as at least one red candlestick or doji so that the wave count has the right look at the daily chart level.

Subminuette wave iv may not move into subminuette wave i price territory below 1,244.34.

Draw a channel about this upwards impulse of minuette wave (c) using Elliott’s first technique, and redraw the channel as subminuette wave iii comes to an end: draw the first trend line from the highs of subminuette waves i to iii then place a parallel copy on the low of subminuette wave ii. Look for subminuette wave iv to end either midway within the channel, or to find support at the lower edge. The final fifth wave up for subminuette wave v may also end midway within the channel or find resistance at the upper edge.

I expect the final fifth wave up of subminuette wave v to be relatively short and brief, and should find very strong resistance at the upper maroon trend line on the daily chart. This maroon trend line may be the best way to see where upwards movement ends, rather than a price target in this instance.

This analysis is published about 3:35 p.m. EST.