It is entirely possible that we could see one final wave up. I have a new hourly alternate Elliott wave count for you.
Note: I am unable to upload any video today. My internet connection is limited. I will ensure that the text below is thorough. I will have a better connection tomorrow. Thank you for your patience.
Summary: I am expecting a trend change either now or very soon. First confirmation would come with a new low below 1,244.34 and a clear breach of the orange channel on the hourly chart. Stronger confirmation would come with a clear breach of the green channel on the daily chart. This is a big trend change and patience is essential.
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Main Daily Wave Count
Within primary wave 5 intermediate wave (1) fits perfectly as an impulse. There is perfect alternation within intermediate wave (1): minor wave 2 is a deep zigzag lasting a Fibonacci five days and minor wave 4 is a shallow triangle lasting a Fibonacci eight days, 1.618 the duration of minor wave 2. Minor wave 3 is 9.65 longer than 1.618 the length of minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is just 0.51 short of 0.618 the length of minor wave 1. I am confident this movement is one complete impulse.
Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) above 1,345.22. I will today publish an alternate which will be the main wave count if this invalidation point is passed.
Intermediate wave (2) is now a complete expanded flat correction. Minor wave C is longer than 1.618 the length of minor wave A, and there is no Fibonacci ratio between them. Minor wave C is either a complete expanding ending diagonal, or one final small fifth wave up may yet unfold to complete it.
Within an ending diagonal all the sub waves must subdivide as zigzags. The fourth wave should overlap first wave price territory. The rule for the end of a fourth wave of a diagonal is it may not move beyond the end of the second wave.
Within the final zigzag up of minute wave v minuette wave (c) does not look like a clear five wave structure on the daily chart, and looks like a three. I have a new alternate hourly wave count for you today which requires a small final fifth wave up to make this structure look more typical on the daily chart.
Draw a “best fit” channel about minute wave v zigzag. When this green trend channel is clearly breached by a full daily candlestick below the lower green trend line and not touching it, then I would have a lot of confidence that there has been a trend change at intermediate wave degree. Only a new low below 1,131.09 would provide full and final price confirmation that downwards movement is intermediate wave (3), but we should be alerted to it before that price point is passed by looking at structure and momentum. Intermediate wave (3) may only subdivide as a five wave impule, and it should show a clear strong increase in downward momentum.
Draw the maroon trend line on a weekly chart on a semi-log scale, and copy it over to a daily chart also on a semi-log scale (see this analysis for a weekly chart). If this wave count is correct this maroon trend line should provide very strong resistance, and upwards movement should end here or with only a small overshoot. If this trend line is breached by a full daily candlestick above it and not touching it then this wave count would substantially reduce in probability and I would take the new daily alternate below much more seriously.
Main Hourly Wave Count
It is possible that intermediate wave (2) is over at all wave degrees. However, within the last upwards zigzag of minute wave v minuette wave (c) looks like a three and not a five on the daily chart. For this reason I have the alternate hourly wave count below.
Ratios within minuette wave (c) are: subminuette wave iii is 1.07 longer than equality with subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is 1.86 longer than 0.618 the length of subminuette wave iii.
If intermediate wave (2) is over then intermediate wave (3) down should follow. This wave count requires confirmation before I have any confidence that there has been a trend change at intermediate wave degree. A new low below 1,244.34 and a clear breach of the orange channel here on the hourly chart are required. Thereafter, a clear breach of the green channel on the daily chart would provide confidence that the trend is down, at least for the mid term.
Alternate Hourly Wave Count
It is possible that minuette wave (c) will have one final last fifth wave up to give it a clear five wave look on the daily chart.
Within minuette wave (c) subminuette wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to subminuette wave i. At 1,297 subminuette wave v would reach 0.618 the length of subminuette wave i. This is the ratio I am using to calculate the target because I would expect a short fifth wave, because there should be very strong resistance from the maroon trend line on the daily chart.
Subminuette wave iv may not move into subminuette wave i price territory below 1,244.34. A new low below this point would indicate that minuette wave (c) is complete, and this price point will remain as a confirmation point even if this alternate hourly wave count is correct and we see a final fifth wave up unfold.
Alternate Daily Wave Count
If price breaks above 1,345.22 this would be my only wave count. Prior to a new high above that point it will remain an alternate, or at best at even probability with the main daily wave count.
If primary wave 5 is over, then within it the problems of a lack of alternation and Fibonacci ratios can be resolved. But other problems are introduced which keep this wave count at a low probability.
Intermediate wave (2) is a rare running flat. This is entirely possible just before a strong third wave, with the downwards pull of a third wave forcing minor wave C to be slightly truncated. However, within intermediate wave (2) minor wave C looks clearly like a three wave structure on the daily chart and this is a considerable problem. If you’re going to label a running flat it is essential that the subdivisions fit perfectly. This reduces the probability of this wave count substantially.
Intermediate wave (2) is a 58% correction of intermediate wave (1), and is a running flat. Intermediate wave (4) is a 52% correction of intermediate wave (3) and is a double zigzag. There is little alternation in depth, but now perfect alternation in structure.
Ratios within primary wave 5 are: intermediate wave (3) is just 1.09 longer than 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1), and intermediate wave (5) has no Fibonacci ratio to either of intermediate waves (1) or (3). The problem of a lack of Fibonacci ratios that I previously had for this idea is now resolved.
Intermediate wave (5) still looks like a zigzag rather than an impulse, and has a corrective wave count. This also reduces the probability of this wave count.
It is entirely possible that we are seeing a leading expanding diagonal coming to an end as the first five up within primary wave A. If there is one final fifth wave up that would complete the structure as per the alternate hourly wave count, and it would have a typical look on the daily chart. For diagonals the contracting variety is more common than expanding, and ending diagonals are more common than leading. While a leading expanding diagonal is not rare, it is not very common either. This very slightly also reduces the probability of this wave count.
Leading diagonals are almost always followed by very deep second wave corrections, often deeper than the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of them. When this structure is complete with a final fifth wave this wave count expects a big deep correction downwards. We may not have clarity between this alternate and the main wave count for several weeks for this reason. The structure of downwards movement would clarify: the main wave count needs an impulse down for third wave while this alternate needs a corrective structure downwards.
When the leading expanding diagonal is complete then intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,131.09.
Silver Daily Chart
This wave count has a good fit.
For Silver minor wave 2 may be an almost complete double zigzag. Only a final fifth wave up may be required. This fits perfectly with the alternate hourly wave count for Gold.
I still have more work to do for alternate ideas for Silver, and I should be ready to publish a full separate analysis for Silver later this week.
This analysis is published about 2:35 p.m. EST.