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Upwards movement was expected. The target remains the same.

Summary: I expect upwards movement for this week. In the short term look out for a quick sharp second wave correction, after which upwards momentum should increase. I expect a green candlestick for tomorrow’s session. Upwards movement may end at the end of this week, or more likely now continue into next week. Upwards movement should reach at least to 1,262.94.

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Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2015

Primary wave 4 is complete and primary wave 5 is unfolding. Primary wave 5 may only subdivide as an impulse or an ending diagonal. So far it looks most likely to be an impulse.

Within primary wave 5 intermediate wave (1) fits perfectly as an impulse. There is perfect alternation within intermediate wave (1): minor wave 2 is a deep zigzag lasting a Fibonacci five days and minor wave 4 is a shallow triangle lasting a Fibonacci eight days, 1.618 the duration of minor wave 2. Minor wave 3 is 9.65 longer than 1.618 the length of minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is just 0.51 short of 0.618 the length of minor wave 1. I am confident this movement is one complete impulse.

Intermediate wave (2) is an incomplete expanded flat correction. Within it minor wave A is a double zigzag. The downwards wave labelled minor wave B has a corrective count of seven and subdivides perfectly as a zigzag. Minor wave B is a 172% correction of minor wave A. This is longer than the maximum common length for a B wave within a flat correction at 138%, but within the allowable range of twice the length of minor wave A. Minor wave C may not exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to minor wave A. Minor wave C is extremely likely to move at least slightly above the end of minor wave A at 1,255.40 to avoid a truncation and a very rare running flat correction. It may end when price touches the upper edge of the maroon channel, copied over here from the weekly chart. To see how to draw this channel click here.

To see a prior example of an expanded flat correction for Gold on the daily chart, and an explanation of this structure, click here.

Intermediate wave (1) lasted a Fibonacci 13 weeks. If intermediate wave (2) exhibits a Fibonacci duration it may be 13 weeks to be even with intermediate wave (1). Intermediate wave (2) is beginning its 13th week. It is just possible it could end at the end of this week, but it now looks like it may need longer than this. It may end next week.

So far within minor wave C the highest volume is on three up days. This supports the idea that at this stage the trend remains up. Even for the last nine trading days the highest volume is in three up days.

Minor wave C may be either an impulse or an ending diagonal. At this stage an impulse looks very unlikely because there is too much overlapping. An ending diagonal looks more likely, and it may be now just beginning the final fifth wave. The diagonal is expanding and the trend lines clearly diverge. Expect the final fifth wave of expanding diagonals to fall short of the i-iii trend line. Minute wave v should be longer than equality with minute wave iii which would be achieved at 1,262.94. This would also see minor wave C end above the end of minor wave A at 1,255.40 avoiding a truncation and a very rare running flat.

Within an ending diagonal all the sub waves must subdivide as zigzags. The fourth wave should overlap first wave price territory. The rule for the end of a fourth wave of a diagonal is it may not move beyond the end of the second wave at 1,142.88.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) above 1,345.22. I have confidence this price point will not be passed because the structure of primary wave 5 is incomplete because downwards movement from the end of the triangle of primary wave 4 does not fit well as either a complete impulse nor an ending diagonal. If it is seen as a complete impulse there would be inadequate alternation between the single zigzag of the second wave and the double zigzag of the fourth wave correction, and there would be no Fibonacci ratios between the first, third and fifth waves within it.

I have considered the possibility that minor wave C ended at the high labelled minute wave iii at 1,238.38. If it did, it would have to be an ending diagonal which does not fit because the third and fifth waves within it do not subdivide as zigzags and instead subdivide as impulses. For this reason I do not think minor wave C is over yet and should continue higher.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart 2015

Minute wave v upwards must subdivide as a zigzag, and within it minuette wave (a) must subdivide as a five wave structure.

There is now what looks like a completed five wave impulse upwards, with an extended fifth wave. Ratios within subminuette wave i are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between micro waves 3 and 1, and micro wave 5 is just 0.91 short of 4.236 the length of micro wave 1.

Ratios within the extended wave of micro wave 5 are: sub micro wave (3) is 0.51 short of equality with sub micro wave (1), and sub micro wave (5) has no Fibonacci ratio to either of sub micro waves (1) or (3).

Because there are three red candlesticks after the end of micro wave 5, I would expect it is very likely to be over here. Subminuette wave ii may end at either the 0.382 or 0.618 Fibonacci ratios of subminuette wave i, with the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio slightly preferred. It may be quick and may not show up on the daily chart as a red candlestick or doji, but this is not certain. It is possible that it could be time consuming enough to show on the daily chart, but this is less likely. I expect it to be over within a few hours. The next movement for Gold when it is done should be a third wave up which should show an increase in upwards momentum.

Subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i below 1,167.44.

This analysis is published about 6:40 p.m. EST.