I had expected another green candlestick for Wednesday’s session which is not what happened.
The Elliott wave count at the hourly chart level has changed again, but the picture at the daily chart level remains the same.
I have confidence in the overall expected direction.
Summary: This small red candlestick is an incomplete correction, and I expect this is the start of minuette wave (b) which should complete in a total four days minimum. This means Gold has just entered a consolidation phase. The breakout when it ends should be upwards. The target for it to end is at 1,203 – 1,202. When it is done the next movement for Gold should be minuette wave (c) up. I remain confident that despite my struggles in the last few days with structure on the hourly chart, the trend remains up at minute, minor and intermediate degree.
Click on charts to enlarge
Primary wave 4 is complete and primary wave 5 is unfolding. Primary wave 5 may only subdivide as an impulse or an ending diagonal. So far it looks most likely to be an impulse.
Within primary wave 5 intermediate wave (1) fits perfectly as an impulse. There is perfect alternation within intermediate wave (1): minor wave 2 is a deep zigzag lasting a Fibonacci five days and minor wave 4 is a shallow triangle lasting a Fibonacci eight days, 1.618 the duration of minor wave 2. Minor wave 3 is 9.65 longer than 1.618 the length of minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is just 0.51 short of 0.618 the length of minor wave 1. I am confident this movement is one complete impulse.
Intermediate wave (2) is an incomplete expanded flat correction. Within it minor wave A is a double zigzag. The downwards wave labelled minor wave B has a corrective count of seven and subdivides perfectly as a zigzag. Minor wave B is a 172% correction of minor wave A. This is longer than the maximum common length for a B wave within a flat correction at 138%, but within the allowable range of twice the length of minor wave A. Minor wave C may not exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to minor wave A. Minor wave C is extremely likely to move at least slightly above the end of minor wave A at 1,255.40 to avoid a truncation and a very rare running flat correction. It may end when price touches the upper edge of the maroon channel, copied over here from the weekly chart. To see how to draw this channel click here.
To see a prior example of an expanded flat correction for Gold on the daily chart, and an explanation of this structure, click here.
Intermediate wave (1) lasted a Fibonacci 13 weeks. If intermediate wave (2) exhibits a Fibonacci duration it may be 13 weeks to be even with intermediate wave (1). Intermediate wave (2) is beginning its 13th week. It is barely possible it could end at the end of this week, it looks like it may need longer than this. It may end next week.
So far within minor wave C the highest volume is on four up days. This supports the idea that at this stage the trend remains up. Even for the last 11 trading days the highest volume is in four up days.
Minor wave C may be either an impulse or an ending diagonal. At this stage an impulse looks very unlikely because there is too much overlapping. An ending diagonal looks more likely, and it may be in the early stages of the final fifth wave. The diagonal is expanding and the trend lines clearly diverge. Expect the final fifth wave of expanding diagonals to fall short of the i-iii trend line. Minute wave v should be longer than equality with minute wave iii which would be achieved at 1,262.94. This would also see minor wave C end above the end of minor wave A at 1,255.40 avoiding a truncation and a very rare running flat.
Within an ending diagonal all the sub waves must subdivide as zigzags. The fourth wave should overlap first wave price territory. The rule for the end of a fourth wave of a diagonal is it may not move beyond the end of the second wave at 1,142.88.
Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) above 1,345.22. I have confidence this price point will not be passed because the structure of primary wave 5 is incomplete because downwards movement from the end of the triangle of primary wave 4 does not fit well as either a complete impulse nor an ending diagonal. If it is seen as a complete impulse there would be inadequate alternation between the single zigzag of the second wave and the double zigzag of the fourth wave correction, and there would be no Fibonacci ratios between the first, third and fifth waves within it.
I have considered the possibility that minor wave C ended at the high labelled minute wave iii at 1,238.38. If it did, it would have to be an ending diagonal which does not fit because the third and fifth waves within it do not subdivide as zigzags and instead subdivide as impulses. For this reason I do not think minor wave C is over yet and should continue higher.
Again, the hourly chart for yesterday was wrong. Although I am struggling with how to label the subdivisions within this upwards movement, I am still confident that at this stage the trend is up at minute, minor and intermediate degrees.
Because Wednesday’s session shows as a red candlestick on the daily chart I do not expect that this is a fourth wave correction. Sideways and lower movement also has breached a channel, no matter how it is drawn, about prior upwards movement. Considering the length of the upwards wave labelled minuette wave (a) this current correction looks most likely to be minuette wave (b).
Ratios within minuette wave (a) are: subminuette wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is just 0.45 longer than 0.618 the length of subminuette wave i.
Within subminuette wave 3 there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between micro waves 1, 3 and 5.
Ratios within micro wave 3 are: submicro wave (3) is 0.89 short of equality with submicro wave (1), and submicro wave (5) is just 0.30 longer than 0.618 the length of submicro wave (1).
So far within minuette wave (b) subminuette wave a may be a completed leading expanding diagonal. I would expect minuette wave (b) to show on the daily chart as at least two or three red candlesticks or doji, so it is very unlikely to be complete at this stage. At 1,203 subminuette wave c would reach equality in length with subminuette wave a. This is very close to the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of minuette wave (a) at 1,202 so gives us a $1 target zone.
However, a word of warning. This is a B wave, which are the most difficult of all Elliott waves to analyse because B waves exhibit the greatest variety in form and structure. This B wave may not complete as a zigzag, as I am expecting, and could still morph into one of more than 13 possible structures. These possibilities include expanded flats and running triangles which could include a new high beyond the start of minuette wave (b) at 1,223.23. If my labelling of minuette wave (a) as complete is correct then we should expect at least another three days of more choppy overlapping sideways movement. The last two B waves at minuette wave degree lasted four and eight days, respectively, so I would expect this one to be most likely at least four days and probably longer.
The only other way I would be happy to label minute wave v so far would be by moving the degree of labelling within minuette wave (a) all down one degree, with only subminuette wave i complete and now subminuette wave ii incomplete. I am not labelling it as such at this stage though, because that would see minuette wave (a) too long. I expect that we are about to see a short A wave and a long C wave within this zigzag up for minute wave v.
This analysis is published about 7:30 p.m. EST.
Lara wave b completed at 6:30 AM est. now Gold has broken the consolidation trend line at 1210.
Hope this will be the moment.
The miners are acting as though the consolidation is not over yet.
Did Lara gave any guidance when wave b considered complete?
I think she pretty much said that is a difficult call to make. Since you seem to be playing the miners with GDX or GDXJ, maybe you will benefit from looking at an hourly chart of GDXJ from the Dec 16 low to today. To me it looks like a wave 1 to 24.80, wave 2 to 21.59, wave 3 to about 28 and now we are in a wave 4 consolidation which looks like some type of triangle to me. Since wave 2 was deep, it would be reasonable for wave 4 to be shallow. It would look nice if wave 4 takes about as many days as wave 2 did. This is for education, so if anyone thinks it should be labeled differently, I’d like to hear it.
yes, I expect it to take at least 4 days in total
because the last two b waves within these zigzags lasted 8 and 4 days respectively
so its extremely unlikely its over today as this is only day 2
It is probably Subminuette wave b, the real one
The next real target is minuette wave (b), subminuette wave c at 1,202-1,203, with an estimated time of a minimum 2 to 4 days at least.
If there was an option to change direction so fast to a complete change of course and invalidate that lower target, then I would expect an upper, “short term invalidation” on the hourly chart like 1,210, whereby no more correction required, gold is heading up towards 1,262.94 final target.
In the meantime until Lara indicates wave (b) 1203 2-4 days target is history I won’t believe that 1204.69 at 6:34 am this morning is an overnight end to minuette wave (b).
In the meantime I still want gold to drop to 1,173 zone so I can buy GDX cheap.
Wave b was over Wednesday. The next target is (b) at 1203-1202. You hope it is the moment for what?
Lara mentioned that this (b) wave can morph into 13 possible structures including a new high beyond 1,223.23.
I just sold my GDX this morning at a loss, then it rallies 30 minutes later. Because I hold no stock I would like Gold to drop down to a record low like 1,173 so I can buy GDX cheap, then I will pray to all the Gods that this dangerous (b) wave is over and a record rally occurs in final wave v,C, (2) to the maroon channel so I can grab the brass ring and my profits.
After I read your reply GDX dropped further.
Lara wrote about two wave B and (b). This is a B wave, which are the most difficult of all Elliott waves to
analyse because B waves exhibit the greatest variety in form and
Which is the wave B? This is different than the hour wave(b)????
For Gold this current movement is minuette wave (b) which I’m focussed on in the hourly chart today.
For GDX I’m expecting a fourth wave correction…. but not yet.
For GDX if its dropping this is probably a correction within minuette wave (iii) (target 22.26).
The GDX fourth wave is it in the next two days?
It could be, but I thought the third wave should continue higher first.
However, so far I’ve noticed that GDX does not reliably exhibit Fibonacci ratios between it’s waves (not like Gold does) and so that makes target calculation very difficult. More of a miss than hit affair.
So for GDX take my targets as possibles only, not definitive; only look out for a possible end at the time price reaches a target.
So yeah, the fourth wave count have begun already. The third wave is longer than 1.618 the first wave.
The third wave looks like it needs one or maybe two smaller fourth wave corrections within it first before it reaches its end.
Lara is getting the daily chart fine,
Look at the hourly chart, yesterday we were on the way up to end wave (a) above 1251 but the wave in question started yesterday and will last at least 4 days with a target of 1,203-1,202 minuette wave (b) and it didn’t end today even though it looked like it, that was just it being choppy.
This current correction looks most likely to be the start of minuette wave (b). I would expect minuette wave (b) should
complete in a total two to four days minimum of more choppy overlapping sideways and fairly shallow movement.
I am looking for GDX to drop in this wacky choppy minuette wave (b) over the next 2 days.
If this is ABC up than the target is 1262.
A=1167, B=1223 B-A= 56, C= 1205 Target D = 1206+56=1262
Richard and Pjay
Here is an astrologer from Mumbai and predicting the same what Pjay has out lined. He has been known in Gold bug circle. Rahu Ketu coming together????
watch the video:
Rahu and ketu can never come together – they are always 180 deg apart (i.e. the dragons head and tail respectively). Jupiter and rahu coming near together happened last in 2008. It was bullish for gold last time this occurred which was back in March 2008 and volatile from there. I have always just used this as a broad guide too keep my eye out. However, you have to relay on TA and EW when placing trades – not stars.
Good advise. I have not been able to synchronize my trades with EW yet.
try reading some standard technical analysis books which cover how to enter and exit trades
the classic “Technical Analysis of Stock Trends” by Magee, Edwards and Bassetti is essential for any trader.
I’m reading “Trading Systems and Methods” by Kaufman at the moment. Much of it is very heavy going, but he does have pretty clear info on how to enter and how to exit trades.
Trend lines. They’re brilliant. Use them a LOT.
Trade with the trend.
Simple money management and risk management are crucial. This is boring stuff, but if you don’t figure it out and use it you’ll lose. Magee covers this well.
So in short, do your own analysis. Add my EW analysis to your tool kit. On the sum of information you gather then make your decision.
My EW analysis is designed to tell you the trend direction and to help with targets. My invalidation points are designed to show you where the market cannot go. Targets are a logical place to take profit (and depend on your trading style; short or mid term trades?) and invalidation points are designed to place stops just beyond.
Papudi, as Lara mentioned, risk/money mgmt is crucial and, per seasoned traders, it’s the single most important factor for profitability, by optimizing your odds and minimizing your losses, regardless of your technical methods. I explained the basics in a post here two days ago.
As for synchronizing trades, have you tried to practice it with paper-trading? (ie, a real-time trading account that uses only fake money so no real loss/gain). You can get a free practice account with FXCM, which is the largest FX & Gold trading platform. Many tools there and trades 24/7 of course, like any serious trader needs.
Lara I appreciate your comment about doing your analysis before New York market close. That will be a real big advantage for us to be able to make changes in our investments before the close instead of waiting overnight. That’s like a daily gift, thanks a lot.
Lara also thanks for your corrections. I know you do your best, which is great and look to clarify everything nightly. That helps our investment results. Best wishes with this B wave.
yeah, I know when its late its annoying for members
usually I get up pretty early to get it done, which is cool, I like mornings
I’m on a plane to the South Island today to see fiords, glaciers, lakes, forests and other cool stuff aka Lord of the Rings scenery for a couple of weeks. I’ll be getting up early and getting the analysis done so the rest of the day I’m sightseeing.
Pjay you mentioned yesterday
“There is a major cycle change in Gold which really starts being evident staring mid-July 2015. The real 2nd recent Bull Market in gold will coming in mid- jan2016 as per Vedic astrology when Jupiter and Rahu conjunct. From somewhere in July 2015 you can start to see the bull move.”
Are you saying that gold bottoms mid-July 2015 and hits a major high mid January 2016?
Richard – please see I just posted in reply section on the previous question by Davey in comments for Jan 6th.
“I think the low/consolidation grind could end in late July 2015 when Jupiter enters Leo (as per sidereal astrology).”
Thanks Pjay, that would be the final bottom Primary 5, end of this 3+ year gold bear market that started September 2011.
Richard this the best news I got to lift my spirit in gold bear market.
I am ready for the long bull market in gold and PM. I have list of securities to built my portfolio. 2015 to 2018.