It looks like the third wave is finally over at 43.58, just $0.85 below the final target calculated at 44.43.

Summary: I expect choppy overlapping movement for about 28 to 34 weeks in total (another 26 to 32 weeks following the date of this analysis) for a sideways fourth wave correction at intermediate degree. The target for it to end is 53.61 to 59.03. It may include a new low below 43.58. US Oil has entered a consolidation phase.

Click charts to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2014

Intermediate wave (4) may not move back into intermediate wave (1) price territory above 91.76.

Draw a channel about this downwards movement using Elliott’s first technique: draw the first trend line from the ends of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy on the high of intermediate wave (2). I would expect intermediate wave (4) to find resistance at the upper edge of the channel, and it may end there.

Intermediate wave (2) was a deep 78% double combination. Given the guideline of alternation I would expect intermediate wave (4) to be more shallow. It may be a zigzag, flat or triangle most likely. If it is an expanded flat or running triangle it may include a new low below its start at 43.58.

Intermediate wave (4) would be most likely to end at either the 0.236 or 0.382 Fibonacci ratios of intermediate wave (3).

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

Intermediate wave (4) may end within the price territory of the fourth wave of one lesser degree. Minor wave 4 price territory is from 53.61 to 59.03. This indicates a very shallow correction for intermediate wave (4) may be more likely, reaching only to the 0.236 Fibonacci ratio about 53.95.

The pink channel is drawn about intermediate wave (3) as a best fit. When this channel is breached that would provide further confidence in this wave count.

I expect intermediate wave (4) to last about the same duration as intermediate wave (2) which was 28 weeks. It may be a little longer, lasting a Fibonacci 34 weeks.