I have a new bullish Elliott wave count for GDX for you. The bearish Elliott wave count will be an alternate, in line with Gold.

Click charts to enlarge.

GDX does not appear to have sufficient volume for Elliott wave analysis of this market to be reliable. It exhibits truncations readily, and often its threes look like fives while its fives look like threes. I will let my Gold analysis lead GDX, and I will not let GDX determine my Gold analysis for this reason.

Main Wave Count

GDX monthly 2014

I have learned the hard way, specifically with AAPL, that in a market with insufficient volume (even at a monthly chart level) if a movement looks like a three or a five that this apparent clear structure may not be relied upon.

For GDX this downwards movement looks like a five wave impulse which may be complete. This wave count would required a clear breach of the channel before I have confidence in it.

If primary wave A is a five then primary wave B may not move beyond its start above 64.05.

Primary wave A lasted 38 months.

B waves exhibit the greatest variety in form and structure. Primary wave B may be a quick movement, or it may take longer. At this stage there are multiple corrective structures it may be unfolding as.

GDX daily 2014

If primary wave B has begun then it may be unfolding as a double zigzag (as labelled), or a single zigzag with a leading diagonal incomplete for primary wave A, or a double combination or a triangle. All possible corrective structures are still open.

Because the downwards wave labelled intermediate wave (X) is less than 90% the length of intermediate wave (W), this cannot be a flat correction unfolding and may only be a double zigzag or double combination.

The second corrective structure may be either a zigzag, flat or triangle, and can make a new low below the start at 16.45. There can be no lower invalidation point.

The only thing I am reasonably confident of for this main wave count is that overall GDX should be in an upwards trend for the next several weeks.

Intermediate wave (W) lasted 51 days and intermediate wave (X) lasted a Fibonacci 34 days. Intermediate wave (Y) may be expected to most likely last a Fibonacci 55 days.

Alternate Wave Count

GDX monthly alternate 2014

This was the only wave count up until today. I am letting Gold determine the wave count for GDX.

It is possible that intermediate wave (5) is incomplete. At 14.13 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). Within it minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 27.78.

GDX daily 2014

Minor wave 3 must move below the end of minor wave 1 at 16.45.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves i and iii.