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The small triangle completed, as expected, and was followed by more upwards movement as expected. I can now calculate a final target for you.

Summary: The trend remains up at minor, intermediate, primary and cycle degrees for the main wave count. The target for upwards movement to end is at 1,204, and should be met within a few hours. Thereafter, how low the next wave down goes will indicate which wave count, main or alternate, is more likely. The main wave count expects a deep second wave correction which may not move below 1,142.82. The alternate expects a third wave down which must move below 1,142.82.

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Main Daily Wave Count

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2015

There are more than thirteen possible corrective structures that cycle wave b may take. At this stage it is unclear what degree to label this big movement. I will leave labelling as is at primary degree, but it is equally possible that this degree may be moved down one level and primary wave A is an incomplete zigzag.

Cycle wave b may be a single zigzag as labelled, but may also be a double zigzag with the first zigzag unfolding as labelled. It may be a triangle with only primary wave A zigzag incomplete, or a double combination within a zigzag for primary wave W incomplete. It may be a flat correction with primary wave A as an unfolding zigzag. All these structures are equally likely. Of all Elliott waves, B waves exhibit the greatest variety in form and structure and are the hardest to label correctly as they unfold.

When the big zigzag labelled primary waves A-B-C is complete I will have alternate wave counts to manage the various possibilities for cycle wave b. When the big zigzag is complete that does not mean that cycle wave b must be complete, and only means that if cycle wave b is a single zigzag it would be complete there. All other possibilities will remain open.

A new high above 1,308.10 would invalidate the alternate and confirm this main wave count at primary and cycle degree.

The upwards wave labelled primary wave A fits only as a five wave structure, a leading expanding diagonal. Within a leading diagonal the first, third and fifth waves are most commonly zigzags, and the fourth wave should overlap first wave price territory. I have tried to see this movement as a three; if it is a three then wave A would end at the high labelled intermediate wave (3) within primary wave A. That would see wave A a leading contracting diagonal, but within it the third wave would be longer than the first. This violates the rule for wave lengths of contracting diagonals so that idea is not a viable wave count. This leads me to the conclusion that primary wave A is a five wave structure and cannot be seen as a three.

Because primary wave A subdivides as a five, primary wave B may not move beyond its start below 1,131.09.

At 1,320 primary wave C would reach equality in length with primary wave A. This would complete a 5-3-5 zigzag trending upwards. At that stage alternate wave counts would be required to manage the various possibilities for cycle wave b.

At 1,429 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A.

Because primary wave A is a diagonal then it is highly likely primary wave C will be an impulse in order to exhibit alternation. Primary wave C may end about the upper edge of the channel drawn about cycle wave b.

This wave count sill has problems of structure within primary wave 5 of cycle wave a:

– within primary wave 5 intermediate wave (2) is a running flat with its C wave looking like a three and not a five.

– within intermediate wave (5) the count is seven which is corrective; either minor wave 3 or 5 will look like a three wave structure on the daily chart where they should be fives.

It is for these reasons that I will retain the alternate until price confirms finally which wave count is correct and which is invalidated.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart 2015

Minor wave 1 is extremely close to completion. The triangle for minute wave iv continued mostly as expected, with minuette wave (e) slightly overshooting the (a)-(c) trend line which is the second common place for E waves to end.

There is perfect alternation between the deep zigzag of minute wave ii and the shallow triangle of minute wave iv. Strongest momentum is within minute wave iii, although it is the first wave within it which was strongest, not its third or fifth waves.

Minute wave v is close to completion, with minuette wave (iv) possibly unfolding as a small triangle or flat correction. At 1,204 minute wave v would reach equality in length with minute wave i. If this target is wrong it may be too high. Fifth waves following triangles in fourth wave positions are often more short and brief than expected, and sometimes they surprise us in how short they are.

Price remains nicely within the Elliott channel for this impulse. Draw the channel from the highs labelled minute waves i to iii, then place a parallel copy on the low labelled minute wave ii. When this channel is breached by downwards movement that shall provide trend channel confirmation that minor wave 1 is over and minor wave 2 downwards is underway. A breach is a full hourly candlestick below the lower pink trend line and not touching it, preferable with clear downwards not sideways movement.

A new low below 1,186.78 would provide price confirmation that minor wave 1 is over and minor wave 2 has begun. That is the end of minute wave iv and the start of minute wave v within minor wave 1. When price moves beyond the start of minute wave v it may not be a second wave correction within minute wave v, and minute wave v cannot be extending and must be over. If the labelling of minute wave iv triangle is correct then this price point will accurately indicate a trend change.

When the channel breach and / or 1,186.78 indicates a high is in place then draw a Fibonacci retracement along the length of minor wave 1. Minor wave 2 is most likely to reach down to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1. Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 below 1,142.82. Minor wave 2 may last three or five days.

Alternate Daily Wave Count

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily Alternate 2015

This alternate wave count sees Gold as still within a primary degree downwards trend, and within primary wave 5 intermediate wave (3) has begun.

At 956.97 primary wave 5 would reach equality in length with primary wave 1. Primary wave 5 may last a total Fibonacci 55 weeks. So far it is now in its 36th week.

The maroon channel about cycle wave a from the weekly chart is now breached by a few daily candlesticks and one weekly candlestick. If cycle wave a is incomplete this channel should not be breached. The breach of this channel is a warning this wave count may be wrong.

This wave count still has a better fit in terms of better Fibonacci ratios, better subdivisions and more common structures within primary wave 5, in comparison to the main wave count above.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor wave 1 is a long extension. Within minor wave 1 minute waves iv and ii are grossly disproportionate, with minute wave iv more than 13 times the duration of minute wave i. This also reduces the probability of this wave count.

A new low below 1,131.09 would confirm that intermediate wave (3) down is underway.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart hourly Alternate 2015

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 1,308.10. It may end about the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio. Because this is a second wave within a third wave one degree higher it should be expected to be more brief and shallow than a second wave correction normally is.

I have changed the labelling of minor wave 2 from a double to a single zigzag. The final fifth wave ending diagonal (for subminuette wave v) of yesterday’s hourly alternate wave count does not fit within the diagonal trend lines, and does not have the right look at all. I do not think an ending diagonal is unfolding in this fifth wave position.

At 1,207 minute wave c would reach 0.382 the length of minute wave a. At 1,203 minor wave 2 would end at the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1.

Once the final fifth wave upwards is complete, thereafter a new low below 1,142.82 would add some confidence to this wave count. Minor wave 3 must move beyond the end of minor wave 1 below 1,142.82 to meet a core Elliott wave rule. Because this should be a third wave within a third wave it should be strong and swift, and should have a new low below 1,142.82 quickly.

This wave count would still require a new low below 1,131.09 for full confidence in the downwards trend at primary degree.

At the hourly chart level the decrease in momentum would be expected. This hourly wave count fits with MACD.

This analysis is published about 04:24 p.m. EST.